The Redditers are going after silver now.
Kind of wishing I hadn’t opened a new Iron Condor on it on Friday (February expiry). So I’m both short and long, betting it will stay within a range for less than three weeks.
It spiked up against resistance late day, but closed below that point, at $25.33 on the ETF. In order for it to gap through my stop in the morning, it would have to jump about 7% at the open, which would break a seventeen-year high from 2013. As long as it doesn’t do that, there will be huge resistance at ~$27. So I’ll be OK if they don’t bid the price up there before the 19th.
Another story. Note that futures did in fact surge almost seven percent, but the underlying did not. On Thursday, it went from $23.34 to $24.72, with a smaller rise on Friday when it ran into resistance. Futures spiked to $27.79, near a September high, but retreated to $26.96 at the close. They spiked at the open tonight to an August high of $29.27, but then retreated again.
Since the futures have been tracking over two bucks ahead of the underlying, I don’t think it will gap through my stop (which would be worst case, since I don’t know how much money I’ll lose, because it depends on how large the gap is), at least at the open. Whether it can hold out until the 19th, when the spread expires, is another question.
[Update a few minutes later]
It’s also worth noting that, while the jump last week was big, it closed Friday at a price from which it had plunged on January 5th, so it wasn’t necessarily a surprise that it would go back to that level. The question is whether it will break it. It did for the futures this evening, so it may well, but it still has the stronger resistance at ~$27.
Welp, it did gap through the 2013 high, and I did get stopped out of the trade, but at the stop, so could have been worse.
Update just before market close]
Dang. If I’d moved my stop up, just a little bit, to that previous seven-year high, I’d still be in the trade, because it retreated when it got there.