quote “Ukraine’s brilliant and tenacious resistance on land”
What’s this guy smoking?
How’s that occupation of Kiev and Kharkiv going?
Russia keeps scraping up more and more men to burn on the fire, from military cadets to fresh conscripts to Libyan and Syrian mercenaries. It’s an assemblage of those who don’t know anything and those who know all the wrong things. Russia has no professional NCO’s, which is their army’s most fundamental failing, but I’ll bet whoever passes on institutional knowledge within the Russian ranks is already stuck outside some Ukrainian village somewhere.
So I think the worst case for the Russian army is that Ukraine’s army keeps bleeding them until a couple of deep thrusts cuts a large portion of them off from an orderly retreat, and Putin, unable to fold, tells his commanders to keep fighting while relief force is assembled, or some variation thereof, similar to Paulus surrender at Stalingrad.
Putin would threaten massive retaliation and launch missile attacks at Ukrainian cities, but his position would be “Don’t wipe out my army or I’ll make you pay!” or perhaps “Let my army escape destruction or I’ll smite you!” The Russian public might finally realize that they’re losing.
It’s possible that Russia could lose virtually all its forces in Ukraine, and they make up such a large percentage of the Russian land army (280,000 active duty) that there may not be enough of a a core left to rebuild on. Most of the equipment that will remain will be the Soviet era equipment that was too poorly maintained or too obsolete to even bother sending into Ukraine.
China’s territory about to get a little larger?
Putin would threaten massive retaliation and launch missile attacks at Ukrainian cities, but his position would be “Don’t wipe out my army or I’ll make you pay!” or perhaps “Let my army escape destruction or I’ll smite you!” The Russian public might finally realize that they’re losing.
Someone on a TV news program I was watching (forget which) pointed out that as WWII in the Pacific drew to a close, Radio Tokyo kept proclaiming the glorious victories of the Imperial Army of Japan in battles that just happened to be drawing closer and closer to the Japanese home islands.
Now that Elon has bought Twitter for Putin, Ukraine is doomed!
Tweets for me but not for thee!
You can’t spell Trump without some of the letters in Vladimir Putin.
Know who else’s name you can spell with some of the letters from his name?
Pitbull.
“Tonight I want all of Ukraine tonight
Give me everything tonight
For all we know, we might not get tomorrow
Let’s do it tonight
Don’t care what they say
Or the games they play
Nothing is enough”
Here’s a tweet showing a long trainload of what’s described as old military equipment on the way to Ukraine.
Much of their top line equipment and elite troops were among the first things to get eliminated. Weeks ago I saw a funny video of Ukrainian army soldiers with some captured Russian TNT charges. They used a knife to cut the paper off, probably because they couldn’t get a detonator inserted, and the charges were blocks of wood. The Russian army likely got scammed again, or someone in supply had been selling lots of inventory on the black market.
Hey George, how much of all the 8 plus Billion in US aid to the ukies is ending up on the black market or laundered in the bank accounts of Oligarchs their politicians?
Do banks take howitzers, T-72 tanks, and anti-tank missiles, or do you have to take those to pawn shops?
Where people like Hillary and Biden skim their money is on the humanitarian aid or direct payments, from which they can get huge kickbacks.
Agreed the NGO’s are a scam, but 8 Billion is more than old tanks.
One big problem with legitimizing forcible land-grabbing as a “defense” strategy, then proceeding to lose your shirt, pants and boots in the attempt, is that your opportunistic, and equally amoral, neighbors might well decide to do the same – to you.
Everyone immediately gravitates to the PRC-taking-Siberia scenario when this subject comes up. That cannot be dismissed as a possibility.
Having seen what the West has been prepared to do to Russia, even at some considerable cost to itself, I think the PRC now realizes that trying to grab off Taiwan would be tantamount to national suicide.
But the PRC is going through both a major economic melt-down and another bad round of Covid lock-downs. An achievable military adventure might seem just the thing to divert the proles from dark thoughts about the current administration.
Of course there is the little matter of Russia still having a sizable nuclear arsenal, even if its reliability is decidedly problematic. But China is also thus-equipped. And the West would hardly be expected to intervene in a Sino-Russian nuclear conflict so long as it stayed “local.”
But there is at least one far likelier and far less potentially apocalyptic scenario that might also be waiting in the wings. I’m thinking that, if Putin continues to pour military resources fruitlessly into the Ukrainian meat grinder, at some none-too-distant point he may start tapping some or all of the forces he recently sent to the southern marches of Kazakhstan to quell recent popular uprisings against its octogenarian dictator.
The Uzbeks have been major non-fans of this development. Should the Russian military continue to hollow out, it may be that Uzbekistan makes a play for some, or all, of Kazakhstan.
If I was the Uzbeks, I’d probably settle for the southern marches and leave the northern part to Russia with the barely-inhabited middle of the country as a buffer. It wouldn’t hurt that Baikonur is in the south of Kazakhstan and could be held hostage to future Russian “good” behavior.
Russia, I think, has spent entirely too long being the apex predator in its neighborhood. It has forgotten what can happen to even the biggest bear, at the teeth and claws of lesser predators, should it be wounded severely enough.
If the Russia army gets cut off, Kadyrov and his Chechens get wiped out. If fear of them and the Russian army that backs them is the only thing keeping Chechnya in the Russian fold, then there will be a third Chechen war for independence and the rebels, currently fighting on the Ukrainian side, will probably have lots of nifty Western arms. And Armenia and Azerbaijan might erupt again as well. And Chechnya is next to Dagestan, population 3 million on the Caspian coast, that’s already made one stab at becoming the independent Islamic State of Dagestan.
In my current over-caffeinated state, I couldn’t help but think of the coin of the realm for an independent Islamic State of Dagestan is the Dagecoin…
Heh.
Yes. Russia is trying to cover a USSR-sized bed with a Russia-sized blanket. Every time it pulls the blanket in one direction, something gets uncovered on the far side of the bed.
quote “Ukraine’s brilliant and tenacious resistance on land”
What’s this guy smoking?
How’s that occupation of Kiev and Kharkiv going?
Russia keeps scraping up more and more men to burn on the fire, from military cadets to fresh conscripts to Libyan and Syrian mercenaries. It’s an assemblage of those who don’t know anything and those who know all the wrong things. Russia has no professional NCO’s, which is their army’s most fundamental failing, but I’ll bet whoever passes on institutional knowledge within the Russian ranks is already stuck outside some Ukrainian village somewhere.
So I think the worst case for the Russian army is that Ukraine’s army keeps bleeding them until a couple of deep thrusts cuts a large portion of them off from an orderly retreat, and Putin, unable to fold, tells his commanders to keep fighting while relief force is assembled, or some variation thereof, similar to Paulus surrender at Stalingrad.
Putin would threaten massive retaliation and launch missile attacks at Ukrainian cities, but his position would be “Don’t wipe out my army or I’ll make you pay!” or perhaps “Let my army escape destruction or I’ll smite you!” The Russian public might finally realize that they’re losing.
It’s possible that Russia could lose virtually all its forces in Ukraine, and they make up such a large percentage of the Russian land army (280,000 active duty) that there may not be enough of a a core left to rebuild on. Most of the equipment that will remain will be the Soviet era equipment that was too poorly maintained or too obsolete to even bother sending into Ukraine.
China’s territory about to get a little larger?
Putin would threaten massive retaliation and launch missile attacks at Ukrainian cities, but his position would be “Don’t wipe out my army or I’ll make you pay!” or perhaps “Let my army escape destruction or I’ll smite you!” The Russian public might finally realize that they’re losing.
Someone on a TV news program I was watching (forget which) pointed out that as WWII in the Pacific drew to a close, Radio Tokyo kept proclaiming the glorious victories of the Imperial Army of Japan in battles that just happened to be drawing closer and closer to the Japanese home islands.
Now that Elon has bought Twitter for Putin, Ukraine is doomed!
Tweets for me but not for thee!
You can’t spell Trump without some of the letters in Vladimir Putin.
Know who else’s name you can spell with some of the letters from his name?
Pitbull.
“Tonight I want all of Ukraine tonight
Give me everything tonight
For all we know, we might not get tomorrow
Let’s do it tonight
Don’t care what they say
Or the games they play
Nothing is enough”
Here’s a tweet showing a long trainload of what’s described as old military equipment on the way to Ukraine.
Much of their top line equipment and elite troops were among the first things to get eliminated. Weeks ago I saw a funny video of Ukrainian army soldiers with some captured Russian TNT charges. They used a knife to cut the paper off, probably because they couldn’t get a detonator inserted, and the charges were blocks of wood. The Russian army likely got scammed again, or someone in supply had been selling lots of inventory on the black market.
Hey George, how much of all the 8 plus Billion in US aid to the ukies is ending up on the black market or laundered in the bank accounts of Oligarchs their politicians?
Do banks take howitzers, T-72 tanks, and anti-tank missiles, or do you have to take those to pawn shops?
Where people like Hillary and Biden skim their money is on the humanitarian aid or direct payments, from which they can get huge kickbacks.
Agreed the NGO’s are a scam, but 8 Billion is more than old tanks.
One big problem with legitimizing forcible land-grabbing as a “defense” strategy, then proceeding to lose your shirt, pants and boots in the attempt, is that your opportunistic, and equally amoral, neighbors might well decide to do the same – to you.
Everyone immediately gravitates to the PRC-taking-Siberia scenario when this subject comes up. That cannot be dismissed as a possibility.
Having seen what the West has been prepared to do to Russia, even at some considerable cost to itself, I think the PRC now realizes that trying to grab off Taiwan would be tantamount to national suicide.
But the PRC is going through both a major economic melt-down and another bad round of Covid lock-downs. An achievable military adventure might seem just the thing to divert the proles from dark thoughts about the current administration.
Of course there is the little matter of Russia still having a sizable nuclear arsenal, even if its reliability is decidedly problematic. But China is also thus-equipped. And the West would hardly be expected to intervene in a Sino-Russian nuclear conflict so long as it stayed “local.”
But there is at least one far likelier and far less potentially apocalyptic scenario that might also be waiting in the wings. I’m thinking that, if Putin continues to pour military resources fruitlessly into the Ukrainian meat grinder, at some none-too-distant point he may start tapping some or all of the forces he recently sent to the southern marches of Kazakhstan to quell recent popular uprisings against its octogenarian dictator.
The Uzbeks have been major non-fans of this development. Should the Russian military continue to hollow out, it may be that Uzbekistan makes a play for some, or all, of Kazakhstan.
If I was the Uzbeks, I’d probably settle for the southern marches and leave the northern part to Russia with the barely-inhabited middle of the country as a buffer. It wouldn’t hurt that Baikonur is in the south of Kazakhstan and could be held hostage to future Russian “good” behavior.
Russia, I think, has spent entirely too long being the apex predator in its neighborhood. It has forgotten what can happen to even the biggest bear, at the teeth and claws of lesser predators, should it be wounded severely enough.
If the Russia army gets cut off, Kadyrov and his Chechens get wiped out. If fear of them and the Russian army that backs them is the only thing keeping Chechnya in the Russian fold, then there will be a third Chechen war for independence and the rebels, currently fighting on the Ukrainian side, will probably have lots of nifty Western arms. And Armenia and Azerbaijan might erupt again as well. And Chechnya is next to Dagestan, population 3 million on the Caspian coast, that’s already made one stab at becoming the independent Islamic State of Dagestan.
In my current over-caffeinated state, I couldn’t help but think of the coin of the realm for an independent Islamic State of Dagestan is the Dagecoin…
Heh.
Yes. Russia is trying to cover a USSR-sized bed with a Russia-sized blanket. Every time it pulls the blanket in one direction, something gets uncovered on the far side of the bed.