Business, Economics, History, Media Criticism, Political Commentary Recession Or Not? August 7, 2022 Rand Simberg 4 Comments It seems unavoidable to me (and I’m pretty sure we’re already in one, despite the weirdness factors).
4 thoughts on “Recession Or Not?”
Gas consumption is falling. It’s a recession.
We have been in one according to how we have defined them in modern history. I don’t buy into the redefinition people are pushing to make Biden not look as terrible as he is on the economy.
Biden’s, and the Democrat’s, stated goal is to destroy the economy so they can transition it to some underpants gnome utopia.
Oh we’re totally in a recession. Been seeing it for a couple months now in my numbers. Everyone’s using credit not debit, and not spending cash. Hoarding cash won’t help much, though, when inflation starts taking off, as it is already doing. You can’t spend money willy-nilly and not expect the chickens to eventually come home to roost. Plus it’s not like our financial system isn’t rigged to the gills. Everyone with a 401k can expect the next haircut to their portfolio in the not too distant future (to the extent they haven’t already seen losses).
Until we change our market philosophy from value-extraction to value-creation then things are just going to get more screwed up and juiced along until things start seizing up in ways that can’t be swept under the rug. This is particularly relevant with regards to space development, as few are willing to invest in value-creation. We can build a Cislunar economy, but it will require investment in resource identification, infrastructure creation, vacuum extraction technologies, aggregation strategies, transport networks, and so much more. Everyone wants the value to be extracted (Rare Earth Elements, oxygen, SWIE gases, water, metals, solar cell materials, lunajuana, and more), but no one wants to actually do the work to make it happen. It’s much easier to extract value from the existing networks built up over time here on Earth (and very poorly maintained, I might add) and already paid for by someone else.
This next recession won’t be pretty, but we’ll get through it. Whether we come through stronger on the other side is increasingly questionable, but we will get through. FWIW, recessions are a bit like fasting. They kind of suck, but they are supposed to help wring the poisons and inefficiencies out of the markets. They don’t anymore, not the way they should, but they shouldn’t be that scary, just prepared for because they are inevitable.
@Ken this is not just a cyclical recession. Nowhere more upstairs to kick it to, we’re at the currency debasement which is the terminal phase. Rome went through dozens of these long-term debt cycles and metastasized countless genocides, civil wars, and near-deaths in the process, but kept on keeping on for two millenia. Could keep going for a while, everyone who matters having nukes is the “this time is different” difference this time (there’s always a difference). The market is undefeated.
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