Biden Has A Weak Hand

Some game theory from Nate Silver.

I’m not sure why he doesn’t mention what to me is an obvious way to force Biden out. All they have to do is say that they’re going to “realize” that there actually is a lot of evidence of family corruption, and it would be very sad if they were to start to agree with the Republicans about it, but what are you going to do? Does Nate not discuss this because he really believes it doesn’t exist, or because he doesn’t want to give it credence himself?

7 thoughts on “Biden Has A Weak Hand”

  1. Interesting situation the Democrats have created for themselves.

    Sure, at an open convention, the Democrats have a shot at booting Biden. A shot, barely (as Silver point out, the vast majority of voting delegates are Biden delegates.) . The biggest problem they face is that there’s not a consensus on who should replace him. Some favor Harris, but that’s the issue that a lot don’t, and for good reasons. A huge one, for them, is she polls worse against Trump than Biden does, and that would get worse once she’s in the spotlight (which is why they put her so far on the back burner after Biden took office – she’s poison).
    So, I don’t agree that Democrats would coalesce around her.

    The point is, they don’t agree on who should replace Biden. Plus, voters will surely notice (some, at least) that if Biden isn’t fit for reelection, then he’s not fit to be in the oval office right now – so why aren’t the people (His cabinet and VP, Democrats all) who have the say-so under the 25th amendment removing him from office? (IMHO, that’s their only real shot at replacing him).

    My take; the “dump Biden” crew somehow believed Biden would voluntarily step aside – thus showing us that they’re more mentally incompetent than even he is. And now they have no real clue what to do, and all they’ve actually succeeded in doing is poisoning Biden’s campaign. Oh, the Democrats will try to put it back together once they accept they’re stuck with Biden; they’ll go back to saying all the claims of Biden’s mental problems are “Right wing conspiracy theories” because it’s about all they can do. And they’ll say he’s really fine, and share fake personal anecdotes to prove it, while trying to explain away why, exactly, they’ve canceled the remaining presidential debate.

    Or (though I see this as a bit of a longshot) they’ll have their open convention. If so, it will be epic! Live on national TV, they’ll gut Biden’s campaign, then have a massive intra-party war trying to pick someone else. Oh, and don’t forget Ohio (as the Democrats wanting an open convention seem to have done). The filing deadline to get on the Ohio ballot is BEFORE the convention. They were planning to have a “virtual vote” of the delegates to make Biden’s nomination official in time to meet the deadline, but an open convention precludes that. And anyone nominated at the convention won’t be in time to make the Ohio ballot, and Ohio is a crucial swing state (and don’t forget the down-ballot implications of that.)

    They’ve painted themselves into a corner, and no matter what they do, it’s going to be exquisitely entertaining!

    1. “The point is, they don’t agree on who should replace Biden”

      Can’t unseat the King without a replacement already lined up. This is how Gaetz and co screwed up.

  2. Chaos agent?

    Abundant, cheap hydrocarbon fuels powering prosperity for all, Remain in Mexico to accept refugee immigrants in keeping with UN principles, judges who interpret the law instead of making stuff up, the Abraham Accords.

    What about the COVID year? So, what about it? Cut the red tape to give us a lifeline against the deadly early variants in the form of a vaccine, just the right amount of economic stimulus to rescue the economy.

    For those ragging on the vaccine and against economic stimulus, the guy who followed couldn’t let people make an informed, personal choice on the vaccine and couldn’t resist piling on more stimulus that fellow Democrat Larry Summers told us would ignite inflation.

    Chaos? I would like another of helping of chaos, please.

  3. “All they have to do is say that they’re going to “realize” that there actually is a lot of evidence of family corruption, and it would be very sad if they were to start to agree with the Republicans about it…”

    Nope; empty threat it would take the Biden DOJ to act they won’t.

    “Democrats actually can escalate further. In fact — and there is a lot of incorrect reporting on this point — it is actually not Biden’s choice whether he wants to be the nominee. Instead, it’s technically up to convention delegates. Democratic party rules contain a provision that allows delegates to back another candidate if they cannot represent their original choice “in all good conscience.” There is nothing legally binding them to vote for Biden.”

    This look interesting if true; widely different reporting about this being a viable option.

  4. The chances of the Bidenaires voluntarily dropping out of the race are about the same odds as filling an inside straight. To put it into Silver-ado speak.

  5. When it comes to Biden family corruption, pulling that string would drag down a lot of other powerful families but worst of all, it would admit that Republicans were right.

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