Technology and Society, War Commentary

I’m No Munitions Expert, But…

48 Comments

48 thoughts on “I’m No Munitions Expert, But…”

  1. Even better, why not wire them together so you get consecutive strikes in exactly the same spot from a single drop?

    1. We learned with MIRV that timed delay prevents weapon fratricide. Plus you want the bulk of force in the direction of the bunker. Some of the most effective weapons in this regard provide very little surface display.

      Shockwaves are an interesting feature. And there’s a lot to be said for repetition… IIRC since MIRV we have no nukes with yields above 300kT. Not needed.

      Also answered Rand on X.

  2. Hearing rumors that Ahmadinejad and family have been executed. If true that is a bit beyond the pale.

    1. If by “executed,” you mean captured by the IDF or Mossad, and he and his family stood up against a wall and were shot, I might agree. At least, as far as the family is concerned. If a bomb?
      Eh. Oh, well. Otherwise, good riddance to bad rubbish. He deserves far worse than a quick death.

  3. That depends entirely on how accurate you need to be and what the accuracy of the munitions are. Even smart bombs have some margin of error, so multiple bombs might still result in multiple shallow holes, rather than one all the way through.

    1. You can end up with the problem that you’re just rearranging the gravel pile on top.

      1. Exactly. The rubble you create actually serves to insulate the target from the impact of subsequent bombs.

        Some nuclear bunkers (the so-called Diefenbunker in Canada, their answer to Cheyenne Mountain) relied on this. They dug a big hole, built a very sturdy concrete structure, then filled the hole with a LOT of gravel.

        The people in the bunker would be in for a hell of a ride, but as far as actually breaking it? Hard to tell.

        Of course, simply burying the bunker, the air shafts, the escape tunnels, the power and water feeds, just burying it, is not a bad technique itself. The occupants in the bunker? They die, from asphyxiation or starvation or dehydration or in that bunker, radiation exposure.

        Then in a year or so, build a big concrete cap over it all and put up a sign saying “Sic Semper Tyrannis” or FAFO, or something equally pithy.

  5. Got to be an entrance! Or entrances. Pound them to pulp and seal the bunker. Also, I’d think the shock waves from multiple bombs would do damage to whatever sensitive machinery is being used inside the bunker.

  6. Greetings,
    There is an issue with diminishing returns. The first bomb creates a crater, the second creates a second crater and collapses some of the sides over the target point. A third creates a crater and collapses even more of the, now very loose dirt into the crater.
    Sure, eventually, you may get through, however, it really is geometric progression on how much explosive power you need to get through to the last 20 to 25 percent to the target.

  7. A very accurate sequence of “normal” ground penetrating bombs might serve to excavate the rubble but otherwise you’re just making the rubble bounce, as others have already mentioned. You are digging a hole with sloped sides, so more and more overburden has to be removed the deeper you get. The bunker buster bombs are completely different in their mode of operation, and even those would be stymied by a sufficiently thick layer of rock.

    1. And if you can’t dig it out fast enough (for example, if it takes multiple returns to dig out the hole), the enemy could figure out that you’re trying to dig out a hole and fill the crater back in.

  9. Assuming air superiority, a C-130J ought to be able to deliver a Massive Ordnance Penetrator.

      1. Yes. I am not an engineer or a loadmaster but I imagine MOP could be shoved out the rear door of a Hercules much as AirLaunch had planned to do with their booster from C-17s.

        https://youtu.be/ltC18q4Td4A?si=pRobnkPUcD5a3-zE

        Achieving the correct velocity and trajectory might be another matter. The sole reason to use C-130s would be that Israel has them. The US could maintain a thin film of plausible deniability. Trump seems to have taken ownership of this war anyway so there may be no need.

      2. Thats because it’s assumed that the B2 is the only sufficiently large aircraft that can survive the air defense environment. The B52 and B1 have the capability but are at risk for attack.

        Considering the Iranian air defense capability has been noticeably attritted, that might not be a factor.

        There are B2s and MOPs staged on Diego Garcia…and nobody in the region would really object to Iran’s nuclear ambitions being thwarted.

  10. A lot of variables to consider here.

    My #1 is, what’s the local geology? In other words, what’s overlying the bunker? For example, of it’s limestone, the calcs are a lot different than if it’s granite. Further, porous or non porous rock? And, wet or dry? Also, what’s the existing rock fracturing?

    #2, how deep?

    #3, how big is the target void? Vastly easier to collapse a huge void that a small one.

    An example that Israel might possibly be aware of is the destruction of the Hezbollah command bunkers deep under Beirut that killed the head of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, along with a lot of other top terrorists. That strike was done in Sept last year by the IAF. Close to 100 weapons were used. The impacts, IMHO, were clearly precision timed for ground shockwave enhancement.

    Is that kind of method enough to take out a deep site like Fordow? I have no clue. (if anyone knows the geology at Fordow, please post it.)
    BTW, in case anyone wants to have a look at it, it’s coordinates are
    34°53’04.2″N 50°59’53.2″E

    I can’t tell, but it doesn’t look granitic or metamorphic to me, more like sedimentary rock, but I’m guessing.

    Depending on gallery size (how big the underground voids are), geology, and depth, maybe the US GBU-72 (Which I believe Israel has a stock of) could do the job if used like it was in Beirut.

    My guess; Israel might need something akin to the US GBU-57, which needs a heavy bomber (perhaps, as reported, only the B-2 can carry it internally – it’s over 20ft long about about 3ft in diameter, and weighs in at a bit under 40k lbs.). However, assuming you can do a software lash-up so an aircraft can communicate with the bomb, I see no reason it (or something home-brewed very much like it) can’t be launched from an external pylon of a jet transport at high altitude if you’ve had a few months to do it (and take out the air defenses first!). And even with that, they’d surely need several.

  12. The bombings will continue until additudes have adjusted. At that point it’s unlikely anyone will be guarding the facilities. Kick down the front door.

    1. Yes. The ideal approach is probably to spend a few more days eliminating the Iranian military then send in a Herc carrying a couple of squads of special ops doorkickers, breaching charges and a lot of destruct charges. Blow the doors, fight your way down killing everyone inside as you go, then extract the radioactives, place the destruct charges, get the radioactives and your troops back aboard the Herc, take off and press the detonator button. Game Over.

      The Israelis already have everything needed to do this entirely on their own.

  13. Israel used essentially this method to take out Iraq’s nuclear reactor back in 1981. U.S. reactor containment structures are designed to withstand the impact of a 747 at landing speed, and while the Iraqi plant was a French design, built with French assistance, I doubt if it was any less robust than ours. In any event, the Israelis had an attack squadron of eight F-16As, each loaded with two 2,000 lb Mk 84 unguided bombs. The aircraft formed a line heading for the plant, and then one after another did a 35 degree dive from 2 km, releasing their bombs in pairs at 1,100 m. There was a 5 second interval between releases. At least half of the bombs hit the containment, breaching it and wrecking the reactor inside.

    If we were to deliver the GBU-57 A/B MOP, we’d send two B-2s, each carry two bombs. They could be dropped serially in the manner described above, I would think. They’re precision guided, and we’re pretty good at that. Some of our PG munitions have been dropped from a great distance, and entered an apartment building through a specific window, taking out just one room. I hear the arguments about crater collapse from the first bomb reducing the effectiveness of the second. But I rather think that if the first bomb converts the rock and concrete into sand, it would make it easier for the second and subsequent bombs.

    1. “But I rather think that if the first bomb converts the rock and concrete into sand, it would make it easier for the second and subsequent bombs.”

      I rather think that too. Penetrating bombs are designed to plow through soft/loose overburden and only explode when they encounter something that halts their progress or when they reach some preset depth. If an initial penetrator halts in hard rock or reinforced concrete short of its preset detonation depth, it would go off anyway, convert quite a bit of said rock/concrete into loose overburden and, indeed, “make it easier for the second and subsequent bombs” so long as those arrive at optimal separation intervals. “Softening up” at scale.

  14. There is no need for expeditious action if you have complete air dominance. Just blow the entrances and if possible the power conduits from outside. Keep orbiting the facility for a few months 24/7 in shifts, blowing anything that moves on the surface on or around it. Eventually the problem solves itself.

    1. The other possibility is diplomatic. Any peace agreement requires the Iranians destroy the Fordow plant themselves with international observers on site to witness the event.

      One would have to assume that much key non-nuclear infrastructure has already been destroyed (but easily rebuilt in peacetime) to force their hand.

    2. These things Israel can do without our assistance, but with our moral support.

  15. Supposedly Trump was told the only way to take out the facility was to “soften up the ground” with conventional munitions, then hit it was a tactical nuke. Swell.

  16. Hmmm, sounds to me like it’d be easier for Israel to develop their own bunker buster. I’m surprised that they don’t already have a deployable conventional bomb given the years spent facing the problem. Maybe the problem is that they didn’t think they could secure airspace well enough to cart the bomb in (it likely will need a stripped out cargo plane which would be easy to shoot down).

  18. Another thought. If you can shake the complex violently enough to break the valves to the containers holding pressurized UF6 already enriched to 60% it’d flood the contained area with highly toxic and radioactive gas. No power and you’d be working in poor lighting in a full rad/chemical suit with limited air supply and full body coverage. BTW UF6 is odorless and colorless. But you’ll know in short order if you’ve inhaled some as fluorine loves to react with bodily fluids. Get emergency treatment and survive the fluorine poisoning and maybe with luck you won’t get bone cancer in 20 years. Not a pleasant combo. Also centrifuges are power hungry items. Kill the power in and I doubt they have enough diesel generators to keep them spinning for long. The more I think about it the more the whole idea to use MOPs seems unnecessary. Is it just a honey pot to draw us in? I don’t think it’s necessary. Fordow would make a great entombment site for that 60%.

  19. Fordow is buried under almost 300 feet of rock, it’s unlikely any sequence of MOPs could get to it. The bomb weighs 30,000lbs, but it’s not all bomb, most of it is the make it punch into the ground, only 750 pounds is explosive. That’s why DoD says it will need a tactical nuke to do the job. As for entrances and air shafts, probably an Iranian state secret that the Israelis know (and thus think that idea won’t work, or they’d already have done it). It can’t be a big cavity either. It was created by standard mining equipment to hold thousands of centrifuges. Also, what about the other facilities already destroyed. Has anyone heard about plumes from burning radionuclides?

      1. Rumor has it six GBU-57s can. Sub-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles did the rest of the work on less hardened sites so I’ve heard. Will be interesting to see the follow on civil sat photos of these sites. Still not convinced it was necessary, but I’m not going to sit here from the comfort of home and 2nd guess the President who had to make the hard calls.

    1. I can’t get past his verification that I’m human check, despite the fact that I pay for that effing locals account. It really pisses me off.

  21. We just hit Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan with a B-2 force and their cargo of GBU-57s. From what I gather, a total of six bombs were used, and the attacks are described as successful. The reaction from the US leftists is consistent with that from the Iranian leadership…

    1. Of course it is. They both want the death of America.

      Now that we are, one presumes, done dumping bombs on Iran, could we not spare even a single smaller one to dump on George Soros?

      1. The main difference between you and Trump is that he is educable and doesn’t react to hard facts that contradict his worldview – or even preferences – like a vampire encountering a silver cross.

    3. The most plausible report I saw was 6 B-2s carrying 12 GBU-57s down the entry shafts at Fordow, and another B-2 and 2 GBUs to Natanz. Fordow is said to be badly damaged but not destroyed. There’s also a report the Iranians got the uranium and some of the centrifuges out before the attack. I guess we’ll see. I hope Trump hasn’t simply been conned by the Neocons. Let’s remember the Taliban is still in charge of Afghanistan, and Iraq? I guess when you wreck something, it’s pretty hard to unwreck it.

      1. I suppose the Iranian regime could move the highly toxic and radioactive enriched UF6 along with a few surviving centrifuges to the basements of hospitals and elementary schools in Tehran to continue the work of Allah. It will be amazing how the electricity usage at these places will go way up. Extended OR time due to casualties caused by Israel and the A/C for summer school? Former school kids coming down with odd cancers in their 20’s? Western video games no doubt.

        1. It looks like the report is true, several hundred pounds of 60% enriched uranium. There’s nothing to stop them from jacketing the warheads of a few hundred missiles with a pound each of enriched uranium grounds and firing them at various targets. With a dirty warhead, even and intercept drops uranium dust in the wind. And the Mullahs don’t care who dies. Israel will kill them all over time. and with regime change. the entire officer corps is headed for the gallows. “When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains…”

          1. Should Iran launch dirty bombs, it will be the death warrant for Khameni. Along with another round of top echelon mullahs and officers that are ideologues as well. That leaves the middle level officers in control of the Uranium. Next step is Israel and Trump offer them gold for that there Uranium and a promise they and their families will be set for an anonymous new life in the West as long as they surrender the goods.

          2. Yes. Offer them all new lives in Beverly Hills. They wouldn’t even have to learn English or anything.

          3. Didn’t they make a TV series about that in the 60’s? I think it was called The Beverly Hills Kuds Brigands… Or maybe it was called the Mulholland Mullahs? Can’t remember…

          4. About the only thing we can’t promise The Beverly Hills Brigands is finding 72 virgins in West Hollywood.

  22. This just in: Israel agrees to a ceasefire and Iran agrees to a cease decimation. Trump promises the best cease fire you’ve ever seen. A big beautiful cease fire. The likes of which was haven’t seen since probably WWII maybe ever.

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