OK, so I understand that if you want to quickly bust a bunker, you need a bunker buster. But what if there's no hurry? Because you completely dominate the skies? Why can't Israel just keep dropping more-conventional bombs, one after another, in each consecutive crater? Wouldn't…
— Not-So-OK Boomer (@Rand_Simberg) June 17, 2025
Even better, why not wire them together so you get consecutive strikes in exactly the same spot from a single drop?
We learned with MIRV that timed delay prevents weapon fratricide. Plus you want the bulk of force in the direction of the bunker. Some of the most effective weapons in this regard provide very little surface display.
Shockwaves are an interesting feature. And there’s a lot to be said for repetition… IIRC since MIRV we have no nukes with yields above 300kT. Not needed.
Also answered Rand on X.
Hearing rumors that Ahmadinejad and family have been executed. If true that is a bit beyond the pale.
If by “executed,” you mean captured by the IDF or Mossad, and he and his family stood up against a wall and were shot, I might agree. At least, as far as the family is concerned. If a bomb?
Eh. Oh, well. Otherwise, good riddance to bad rubbish. He deserves far worse than a quick death.
That depends entirely on how accurate you need to be and what the accuracy of the munitions are. Even smart bombs have some margin of error, so multiple bombs might still result in multiple shallow holes, rather than one all the way through.
I think the rubble from the N-1 bomb gets in the way of the N bomb
You can end up with the problem that you’re just rearranging the gravel pile on top.
Got to be an entrance! Or entrances. Pound them to pulp and seal the bunker. Also, I’d think the shock waves from multiple bombs would do damage to whatever sensitive machinery is being used inside the bunker.
Greetings,
There is an issue with diminishing returns. The first bomb creates a crater, the second creates a second crater and collapses some of the sides over the target point. A third creates a crater and collapses even more of the, now very loose dirt into the crater.
Sure, eventually, you may get through, however, it really is geometric progression on how much explosive power you need to get through to the last 20 to 25 percent to the target.
A very accurate sequence of “normal” ground penetrating bombs might serve to excavate the rubble but otherwise you’re just making the rubble bounce, as others have already mentioned. You are digging a hole with sloped sides, so more and more overburden has to be removed the deeper you get. The bunker buster bombs are completely different in their mode of operation, and even those would be stymied by a sufficiently thick layer of rock.
I, too, read The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress.
Assuming air superiority, a C-130J ought to be able to deliver a Massive Ordnance Penetrator.
No, the only plane that carries the MOP is the B-2.
Yes. I am not an engineer or a loadmaster but I imagine MOP could be shoved out the rear door of a Hercules much as AirLaunch had planned to do with their booster from C-17s.
https://youtu.be/ltC18q4Td4A?si=pRobnkPUcD5a3-zE
Achieving the correct velocity and trajectory might be another matter. The sole reason to use C-130s would be that Israel has them. The US could maintain a thin film of plausible deniability. Trump seems to have taken ownership of this war anyway so there may be no need.
A lot of variables to consider here.
My #1 is, what’s the local geology? In other words, what’s overlying the bunker? For example, of it’s limestone, the calcs are a lot different than if it’s granite. Further, porous or non porous rock? And, wet or dry? Also, what’s the existing rock fracturing?
#2, how deep?
#3, how big is the target void? Vastly easier to collapse a huge void that a small one.
An example that Israel might possibly be aware of is the destruction of the Hezbollah command bunkers deep under Beirut that killed the head of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, along with a lot of other top terrorists. That strike was done in Sept last year by the IAF. Close to 100 weapons were used. The impacts, IMHO, were clearly precision timed for ground shockwave enhancement.
Is that kind of method enough to take out a deep site like Fordow? I have no clue. (if anyone knows the geology at Fordow, please post it.)
BTW, in case anyone wants to have a look at it, it’s coordinates are
34°53’04.2″N 50°59’53.2″E
I can’t tell, but it doesn’t look granitic or metamorphic to me, more like sedimentary rock, but I’m guessing.
Depending on gallery size (how big the underground voids are), geology, and depth, maybe the US GBU-72 (Which I believe Israel has a stock of) could do the job if used like it was in Beirut.
My guess; Israel might need something akin to the US GBU-57, which needs a heavy bomber (perhaps, as reported, only the B-2 can carry it internally – it’s over 20ft long about about 3ft in diameter, and weighs in at a bit under 40k lbs.). However, assuming you can do a software lash-up so an aircraft can communicate with the bomb, I see no reason it (or something home-brewed very much like it) can’t be launched from an external pylon of a jet transport at high altitude if you’ve had a few months to do it (and take out the air defenses first!). And even with that, they’d surely need several.
Here is part of the issue think the other it is under far more solid rock. https://x.com/Pataramesh/status/1934504758686986678
If they have complete air superiority and can suppress any ground , air dropping quad copter drones and seeking out vents might prove useful.