That’s the target date for the next Starship test, according to an email invitation to set up cameras. I’ll be at ASCEND in DC.
That’s the target date for the next Starship test, according to an email invitation to set up cameras. I’ll be at ASCEND in DC.
Let us hope. We are, at least, now closer to this putative launch date than we got to any of the previous ones before they were pushed rightward by niggling difficulties. With static fires and a wet dress rehearsal now accomplished, one hopes only a modest bit of final preparation remains.
Then, of course, there will be the matter of how well the test flight actually goes. If all proceeds as planned, one hopes to see a considerable jump in test launch cadence during the remainder of the year and several major “boxes” checked off:
1. Achieving actual orbit and de-orbit with a Starship.
2. Catch, and eventual reuse, of a Starship.
3. Deployment of Starlink V3 satellites.
4. Launch of a prototype LEO propellant depot Starship.
5. One or more launches and recoveries/reuses of a prototype tanker Starship and transfer of its/their contents to the depot ship.
Accomplishing all of this by the end of 2026 would allow SpaceX to make multiple additional operational uses of Starship for Starlink V3 deployments and propellant transfers to the depot ship in early and mid-2027, allowing it to gain further experience in recovering, refurbishing and reusing “Pez dispenser” and tanker Starships and work toward having a prototype HLS Starship ready to launch by whatever date is finally settled upon as needful for the Artemis 3 mission.
Having a full, or nearly full, depot ship in LEO by the time of Artemis 3 would allow the HLS Starship launched for that mission to be refilled and dispatched Moonward for the required unmanned descent, surface loiter and ascent test needed prior to the manned Artemis 4 mission immediately, or at least fairly soon, after completion of Artemis 3.
This is just me spit balling, but if everything goes well on Flight 12, subsequent flights might go like this.
Flight 13 – Booster recovery. No use throwing away such a valuable asset. Ship will still land in the water. They might go for an extended range suborbital mission, but that may not be necessary.
Flight 14 – First orbital mission. Go for booster recovery. They might even reuse the booster from Flight 13 if recovery is successful. While on orbit, Ship will deploy the first Starlink V3 satellites. Reentery and landing will be in the water near the launch site. This will test maneuvering and demonstrate accuracy.
Flights 15 & 16 – Second and third orbital missions. The Ship might be a propellant depot version left on orbit for refueling tests with the tanker Ship from Flight 16. Go for catch on Flight 16’s Ship.
Flight 17 – First launch of a lunar lander version of Ship. Conduct tests of life support, maneuvering, and conduct docking with the tanker.
I can dream, can’t I?
You can indeed. I hope we see all of that happen over the next few months. I’m not real particular about the order in which it all occurs.
Are Starlink V3 satellites being manufactured at the present time?
Yes. There were some apparent prototype V3 Starlinks seen at Starbase well over a year ago when it seemed the V2 Starship stacks might be imminently capable of launching them. The V3 design has likely improved since then. I think we can rest assured that production of V3 Starlinks will have no problem keeping up with V3 Starship launch capability.