…will be much worse than the last one. And we’ve done essentially nothing to prevent Iran from arming Hezbollah. In fact, I see no evidence that the current administration is even concerned about it.
4 thoughts on “A Next Lebanon War”
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The good thing about this next war is it might actually resolve the Hezbollah question in Lebanon, however messily. As Totten points out, Hezbollah has accumulated a lot of short-term firepower and they’re ready to use it – but Israel has orders of magnitude more, and will be seriously angry about missiles coming down over her whole territory.
Hezbollah almost certainly calculates Israel will once again stop well short of annihilating an attacker, and that the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese coalition government will once again stand aside from an Israel-Hezbollah fight. If they’re wrong on the first count, they’re in for a serious grinding down. If they’re wrong on both, they could be due for effective destruction as an organization. As a big fan of peace, quiet, and reasonable neighbors, I say, if so, not a moment too soon.
grumpily
Porkypine
My concern is that Hezbollah will use that firepower on the Lebanese government.
Not likely. Hezbollah’s firepower is mainly unguided artillery rockets. Other than that, they’re simply the largest and best-equipped single militia in Lebanon – think defensive light infantry, not trained organized or equipped to take ground against significant defense without taking large casualties and quickly grinding to a halt.
Absent unlikely levels of combined-arms organization and training, their large number of rockets are chiefly a terror weapon. If they used them within Lebanon, all they’d accomplish is killing a fair number of civilians and uniting the rest of the country’s factional militias against them. At the same time they’d finally give the (relatively well-equipped and trained) Lebanese Army enough motivation to stop worrying about avoiding civil war (Hezbollah would have already started it) and go after them. In other words, Hezbollah may be the biggest single gorilla in that cage, and they have gotten a lot through intimidation, but if they go too far they’ll unite the rest of the country against them and get stomped. Slowly and messily if Israel stays out of it, otherwise fast and messily.
Hezbollah’ missiles are ultimately a one-shot Iranian strike weapon. Iran’s interest is in keeping them aimed at Israel unused, as a deterrent to an attack on Iran. IOW Iran really works at preventing Hezbollah from starting anything on their own. Hezbollah missile attacks on the rest of Lebanon are hugely unlikely, save as part of an overall Lebanese war on Hezbollah. Overdue, I’d say, but then I don’t live there.
cynically
Porkypine
Other than that, they’re simply the largest and best-equipped single militia in Lebanon – think defensive light infantry, not trained organized or equipped to take ground against significant defense without taking large casualties and quickly grinding to a halt.
That might be good enough to take over Lebanon especially if they receive direct military support from Syria.