The Climate Models

On the verge of failure.

It’s an interesting exercise to attempt to model climate, but the notion that we should base public policy on these toys, particularly given the incompetence of many of those doing it, is insane.

[Update a while later]

It’s worth quoting the conclusions here:

It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited.

Assessments which suffer from the inclusion of unreliable climate model projections include those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program (including the draft of their most recent National Climate Assessment). Policies which are based upon such assessments include those established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency pertaining to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act.

In other words, all of the president’s latest job- and wealth-destroying power grab.

[Update a few minutes later[

Failure deniers– the problem with public-sector science:

Private companies which kill products or ideas administer the pain quickly and move on. If government ever tries to end a program or operation — “ever” is the operative word, as Ronald Reagan frequently noted: ”The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a government program” — they go about it slowly, in hopes that outraged politicians or constituents will come to their rescue. If total termination ever occurs, they call it “a learning experience,” which of course was carried out with other people’s money, and rarely includes any learning.

Because they can do it with other peoples’ money. Time to take their (that is, our) money away.

2 thoughts on “The Climate Models”

  1. The AGW climate modelers are sort of like sports touts, those handicappers that claim to have a system to make you rich, all you need to do is sign up for their system at some outrageous rate. Somebody gets rich alright, and it’s not the gullible that sign up for the service.

    Of course, their systems tell you nothing of the future – they simply model the past. Quite accurately. Imagine that. The trick is to get as much out of it as you can before the bottom falls out, as in time the model will show itself to be worthless.

    I’d say we’re about there with AGW touts – they needed to sell it quick, and couldn’t close the deal. Time was the enemy – years would expose the fraud, as it has.

    At this point it’s ‘Hail Mary’ time (97% agreement!) – one last dying push. The demise of the climate models will come fast and suddenly.

  2. I’m old enough to remember when “Made in Japan” meant “junk” and when people believed that if it came out of a computer, it must be right.

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