If, indeed, Trump’s support has a ceiling of around 30%, he’s done in the long run. I’m a bit unsure though, because while some polls have indeed showed this, others have not. I really don’t trust polls to show the fine detail needed to make that determination.
Trump, via his repeated claims of how far ahead he is, may be setting himself up for a major downfall via losing an early primary. I’m reminded of Iowa, 2008, and what it did to Hillary.
Trump’s reliance on questionable (to say the least) sources is certainly a vulnerability. A huge one IMHO, because it also casts doubt on his judgement.
To win the nomination, Trump would need to alter some of his tactics. If he can’t adapt like that, the same is true of him as is of any candidate; he’ll lose, and better then than in the general.
On the flip side, Trump has adapted before, so might do so again, only time will tell. As for campaign resources, so far, he’s proven to be highly reluctant to spend his own money, and may well not be anywhere near as liquid as he claims. However, given his net worth (even if he’s inflated the real number by a factor of 2) he could easily get his hands on, say, 60 million, and that kind of money is huge in the primaries. (For example, that’s more than Jeb has in his campaign plus super Pac, and that money was the reason Jeb was seen as the likely nominee; his financial advantage). Likewise, Cruz’s big warchest of $12 million is seen as a major advantage.
My guess right now is that Cruz has the best shot at beating Trump. As for the odds, I have no clue; they could be very favorable, but this far out, I don’t think anyone can know. (It was only a couple of weeks ago that Carson was seen as the Trump-beater). We’re five weeks from Iowa, and that’s an eternity in politics.
One major factor; the outrage over the awful omnibus bill. That surely benefits Trump, but if Cruz gets the chance to make a loud effort against it in the Senate, it may benefit him even more. Time will tell.
As for campaign resources, so far, he’s proven to be highly reluctant to spend his own money
With all the media coverage, he hasn’t needed to.
The recent passage of the omnibus bill is only going to boost Trump higher (or keep him where he is).
Every time the RINO’s ignore the base, Trump gets traction…which, is JUST what the RINO/Establishment does not want.
“The world is full of lovely little ironies.”
Raymond Reddington
That was an exceptionally long oped. Trump saying stupid stuff is his achilles heel but to take advantage of it, the media or a fellow candidate has to avoid the traps Trump sets.
More of an analysis than an op-ed.
Well, the polls look pretty clear; Trump’s foot-in-mouth ban-all-muslim entry (and per a spokeswoman, citizens included) blurt had a very clear effect on Trump’s numbers: it increased his polling numbers by about 11 points.
I suspected when that brouhaha broke out that Trump was doing it intentionally, especially the bit about a spokeswoman coming out and saying “Mr. Trump said everybody”. I couldn’t see clearly what his angle was, but I was pretty sure he had one, and it turns out he did.
I’m not a Trump supporter, and my point here is only that his opponents underestimate him at their peril. They’re setting themselves up to be, um, Trumped.
I’m watching with keen interest the latest Trump brouhaha (him and Putin swapping compliments, etc.). Looked at conventionally, that’s a profoundly stupid thing for a candidate (especially in a Republican primary) to do. But I suspect he’s got an angle. My two guesses are he’ll use it to redirect the conversation to something else, or, it’s a timing move to slow his own rise leading up to Iowa and New Hampshire (to avoid the pitfall of peaking too soon). Time will tell.
We are certainly living in interesting times.
Well, here’s hoping he ultimately fails before he gets elected.
IMHO, Trump has set himself up to be very vulnerable, via his constant bragging about how far ahead he is. If anyone beats him in Iowa, it’ll hurt him more (via popping his inevitability claims, like Iowa in 2008 did to Hillary) than it would a regular frontrunner.
My guess is that it’ll take a smart, shrewd guy like Cruz to beat Trump, because Cruz seems to have the best tactical instincts in the race.
A very interesting piece.
If, indeed, Trump’s support has a ceiling of around 30%, he’s done in the long run. I’m a bit unsure though, because while some polls have indeed showed this, others have not. I really don’t trust polls to show the fine detail needed to make that determination.
Trump, via his repeated claims of how far ahead he is, may be setting himself up for a major downfall via losing an early primary. I’m reminded of Iowa, 2008, and what it did to Hillary.
Trump’s reliance on questionable (to say the least) sources is certainly a vulnerability. A huge one IMHO, because it also casts doubt on his judgement.
To win the nomination, Trump would need to alter some of his tactics. If he can’t adapt like that, the same is true of him as is of any candidate; he’ll lose, and better then than in the general.
On the flip side, Trump has adapted before, so might do so again, only time will tell. As for campaign resources, so far, he’s proven to be highly reluctant to spend his own money, and may well not be anywhere near as liquid as he claims. However, given his net worth (even if he’s inflated the real number by a factor of 2) he could easily get his hands on, say, 60 million, and that kind of money is huge in the primaries. (For example, that’s more than Jeb has in his campaign plus super Pac, and that money was the reason Jeb was seen as the likely nominee; his financial advantage). Likewise, Cruz’s big warchest of $12 million is seen as a major advantage.
My guess right now is that Cruz has the best shot at beating Trump. As for the odds, I have no clue; they could be very favorable, but this far out, I don’t think anyone can know. (It was only a couple of weeks ago that Carson was seen as the Trump-beater). We’re five weeks from Iowa, and that’s an eternity in politics.
One major factor; the outrage over the awful omnibus bill. That surely benefits Trump, but if Cruz gets the chance to make a loud effort against it in the Senate, it may benefit him even more. Time will tell.
With all the media coverage, he hasn’t needed to.
The recent passage of the omnibus bill is only going to boost Trump higher (or keep him where he is).
Every time the RINO’s ignore the base, Trump gets traction…which, is JUST what the RINO/Establishment does not want.
“The world is full of lovely little ironies.”
Raymond Reddington
That was an exceptionally long oped. Trump saying stupid stuff is his achilles heel but to take advantage of it, the media or a fellow candidate has to avoid the traps Trump sets.
More of an analysis than an op-ed.
Well, the polls look pretty clear; Trump’s foot-in-mouth ban-all-muslim entry (and per a spokeswoman, citizens included) blurt had a very clear effect on Trump’s numbers: it increased his polling numbers by about 11 points.
I suspected when that brouhaha broke out that Trump was doing it intentionally, especially the bit about a spokeswoman coming out and saying “Mr. Trump said everybody”. I couldn’t see clearly what his angle was, but I was pretty sure he had one, and it turns out he did.
I’m not a Trump supporter, and my point here is only that his opponents underestimate him at their peril. They’re setting themselves up to be, um, Trumped.
I’m watching with keen interest the latest Trump brouhaha (him and Putin swapping compliments, etc.). Looked at conventionally, that’s a profoundly stupid thing for a candidate (especially in a Republican primary) to do. But I suspect he’s got an angle. My two guesses are he’ll use it to redirect the conversation to something else, or, it’s a timing move to slow his own rise leading up to Iowa and New Hampshire (to avoid the pitfall of peaking too soon). Time will tell.
We are certainly living in interesting times.
Well, here’s hoping he ultimately fails before he gets elected.
IMHO, Trump has set himself up to be very vulnerable, via his constant bragging about how far ahead he is. If anyone beats him in Iowa, it’ll hurt him more (via popping his inevitability claims, like Iowa in 2008 did to Hillary) than it would a regular frontrunner.
My guess is that it’ll take a smart, shrewd guy like Cruz to beat Trump, because Cruz seems to have the best tactical instincts in the race.