Category Archives: Technology and Society

Aerojet Rocketdyne ULA?

This seems like a really weird story:

Rocket engine maker Aerojet Rocketdyne has offered to buy launch services provider United Launch Alliance from Lockheed Martin and Boeing for at least $2 billion, an industry source told SpaceNews Sept. 8.

The unsolicited bid is the latest twist in what has been a topsy-turvy year for ULA, the primary U.S. government launch services provider.

First, this begs the question of whether the parents would be willing to sell. I’m not sure they’d want to give up control, given the strategic issues involved. An unfettered ULA could be almost as disruptive to their government business (particularly SLS) as SpaceX has been.

Of course, a purchase by AJR would probably pretty effectively fetter them in other ways. The only reason for the company to do this is pure desperation. If Tory gets his way, and they build Vulcan/ACES, and end Atlas, Delta and Centaur, and phase out use of the RL-10 as well (which they’ve been wanting to do for years), AJR is pretty much out of business. But it would be acquiring and preserving launch systems that are already known to be uncompetitive on the future market, and it still needs money to build the AR-1, the RD-180 replacement. Congress seems willing to throw them money for that. But the problem is, even if the taxpayer pays for development, the vehicle itself will remain uncompetitive against SpaceX, since even with the development subsidy, manufacturing costs will be higher than the current price for the RD-180 from Russia.

Which makes this story at Engadget pretty funny:

United Launch Alliance is a joint-venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing that launches spy and navigation satellites for the Pentagon and Air Force. Now, the firm is the subject of a $2 billion bid from engine business Aerojet Rocketdyne, a company that’s been snubbed in its attempts to power the Atlas V. If the government’s shadowy army of intelligence analysts and accountants approve the deal, it could create a new aerospace behemoth that could leave Elon Musk shivering out in the cold.

Say what? If I were Elon, I’d be cheering this on, for reasons stated above. What I’d be worried about would be a counteroffer from Bezos, because this deal leaves Blue Origin out in the cold, in terms of suddenly having to develop their own rocket for the BE-4. I’ll bet he’s thinking about it. Of course, as I said above, this all presumes that Boeing and Lockmart are willing to sell. It was reportedly an unsolicited bid.

[Update a few minutes later]

Yes, as noted in comments, it’s a third higher than their market cap. And it’s just an opening bid, no way they’d get it for that price. It might be possible to do some kind of mezzanine M&A deal, but it sure looks like a bad bet to me.

[Mid-afternoon update]

SpaceX Return To Flight

Chris Bergin has an extensive story over at NASA Spaceflight.

It would be nice to see them get in four more flights this year, but it seems unlikely. In any event, if they start flying again in November, that would be a pretty fast recovery, in historical terms with other launch failures, particularly with a relatively new vehicle.

[Update a few minutes later]

And here’s a story about Lee Rosen’s announcement in Pasadena that Falcon Heavy will debut this spring.

[Updatea while later]

Bad second link. Fixed now, sorry.

Why We Can’t Go To Mars

Yet…

Stephen Fleming gave a talk on that subject at Dragoncon this weekend (I should go some time). I haven’t looked at them yet, but his slides are on line, and I suspect there’s some good input to the Kickstarter there.

[Update a few minutes later]

Still haven’t been through slides, but I’m amused to see that he stole my graphical book-cover them in the very first one.

[Reading through]

I’d note that in his slides on the “Martian Defense Grid,” someone on the Mars panel at the AIAA meeting last week called Mars our “Jamestown.” High casualties to initial pioneers.

[Update a few more minutes later]

I wish we could show those charts of the unknown shape of the health/gravity curves to Congress. It makes a powerful case for a gravity lab, but only to people who actually give a damn about Mars. Actually, someone should show them to Elon.

ULA’s Technology

I saw George Sowers and Bernard Kutter, from ULA, at the AIAA conference in Pasadena last week. Jon Goff has a summary/review of some of the papers they presented there.

These are key technologies for my Kickstarter project (and opening the solar system). It’s interesting to note that they think they are ready to build depots now — Congress can’t prevent it any more by cutting technology funding. I asked Bernard in his presentation if it was fair to say that ACES was basically a depot with a propulsion system. His answer: “Basically yes.” Also, what they are calling “distributed launch” is essentially a powerful refutation of the argument for the need of SLS. But they can’t say that explicitly. I asked Tory on Twitter if he could give me a ballpark price of a Vulcan/ACES flight. He demurred, but it’s a number I need to cost architectures.

Commercial Crew Status

David Livingston, Leonard David, and I interviewed Kathy Lueders, the program manager, on Monday. The podcast of it is now up. We basically ignored the talking points put out by PAO, and just asked her questions, some of them philosophical. I suspect it’s probably one of the most in-depth interviews she’s ever had. I gave her a copy of the book afterward.

BTW, I’ll be on The Space Show myself next Friday, to discuss the Kickstarter project.

[Update a while later]

I didn’t post this when it came out, because I was busy with conference stuff and other things over the weekend, but the latest Space Access Society update posits a theory that the commercial crew fight is a heating up of the never-ending war between Huntsville and Houston.

A New Class Of Cholesterol Drugs

I wish I had more confidence that they’re not just treating a symptom:

As for the efficacy of the drugs, it is not yet proved that very low LDL levels produced by drugs lead to sharp reductions in heart attacks, strokes and deaths from cardiovascular disease, as researchers have seen in people with the naturally inactive PCSK9 gene.

Many cardiologists, though, are persuaded by a large body of evidence supporting the idea that the lower the LDL, the lower the risk.

“I believe lower is better and do not believe that a very low LDL is harmful,” said Dr. Daniel Rader, a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania.

Others, like Dr. Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist at Yale, urge caution. “We are in a period of exuberant enthusiasm about these drugs,” he said. “We could just be performing cosmetic surgery on a lab value.”

If it were certain that the PCSK9 inhibitors were safe and effective in preventing heart attacks and deaths there would be no need for clinical trials, he noted.

$14,000/year is a lot of money for a treatment for which we have no idea whether or not it’s effective. I think improving diets would be much more cost effective.

[Update Tuesday morning]

Here’s a longer piece about the new drugs and the issues. Note: 1) It is assumed that the goal is to lower cholesterol, and that this will in turn result in lower mortality and 2) No mention of diet as a potential solution. Of course, it’s hard to get people to change their diets. But I suspect that to the degree that doctors are telling people to do so, they’re still telling them to cut out sat fat and cholesterol, despite all the actual science, and probably still telling them to follow FDA food-pyramic advice, which is junk science.

[Bumped]