Category Archives: Space

Armadillo’s Prospects

I haven’t commented on this, but the New Scientist has a fairly extensive story of Armadillo’s bad weekend.

What do I think?

First of all, full disclosure. I’m working, as I write this, for one of Armadillo’s competitors, on SBIR proposals. But it’s a close-knit community, even among the competitors.

And having said that, I don’t think it’s a disaster for Armadillo. These kinds of things are going to happen along the way, as we start to understand how to develop operable and affordable space transports (a goal that has eluded both the military and NASA, almost half a century after the dawn of the space age). I also find it interesting (and I have to confess, somewhat amusing) that the failure was fundamentally a software failure, given the pedigree of the company that provided the funds that created the vehicle:

Post-crash analysis has revealed what went wrong

Armadillo’s Prospects

I haven’t commented on this, but the New Scientist has a fairly extensive story of Armadillo’s bad weekend.

What do I think?

First of all, full disclosure. I’m working, as I write this, for one of Armadillo’s competitors, on SBIR proposals. But it’s a close-knit community, even among the competitors.

And having said that, I don’t think it’s a disaster for Armadillo. These kinds of things are going to happen along the way, as we start to understand how to develop operable and affordable space transports (a goal that has eluded both the military and NASA, almost half a century after the dawn of the space age). I also find it interesting (and I have to confess, somewhat amusing) that the failure was fundamentally a software failure, given the pedigree of the company that provided the funds that created the vehicle:

Post-crash analysis has revealed what went wrong

Hitting The Atmosphere

Since it did the deorbit burn about half an hour ago, Endeavour should be starting to test its tiles right about now. Hoping for the best.

[Update a few minutes later]

Apparently they came through entry all right. Landing in a few minutes. It will be interesting to see the extent of the belly damage once they reach the ground.

[Update a few minutes prior to landing]

I just heard the double sonic boom. It rattled the house. I’ve never heard one in Florida before. The last time I did was in California, on an Edwards landing. I guess they were approaching the Cape from the south.

[Update]

The vehicle just rolled (apparently safely) to a stop.

[Post-flight update]

Interesting unintended consequences, if it turns out to be the case:

While the resulting damage was later found to pose no risk to the safe return of the orbiter or its seven-astronaut crew, NASA has found similar foam shedding events on its last few shuttle flights. The damage from any such foam loss to an orbiter’s heat shield is not believed to be catastrophic, like that which led to the 2003 Columbia accident, but engineers are analyzing it just to be sure, Hale said.

The increased frequency has prompted speculation that an extra hour added to launch countdowns – to allow inspections teams to scan shuttle fuel tanks for ice build-up – may actually contribute to ice formation that ultimately cracks or looses foam debris.

There are no risk-free choices.

Disconnect

There’s been a very interesting discussion in comments over at Space Politics about VSE, ESAS, and public perception. Jim Muncy challenges us to an exercise:

I would respectfully request everyone ask themselves two separate and distinct questions. Answer them independently, in any order you want.

1) As a prelude, add any

To Repair Or Not To Repair?

Tariq Malik has a good story on the current state of the Shuttle tile issue.

Apparently, the concern is not for loss of the vehicle (and of course, the crew, but we have lots of astronauts*, and only three orbiters left). The concern is whether or not a repair will reduce the turnaround time for repair on the ground that’s worth the risk (to both crew doing EVA and the vehicle, in the event they actually make things worse by dinging it somewhere else or botching the repair) of attempting to repair it.

I don’t have access to all the data, but I’d be inclined to come in as is, assuming that it really doesn’t risk vehicle loss.

Someone on a mailing list I’m on noted that they wouldn’t want to be the person who signed off on a return without a repair. As I commented there, there are risks either way. If they attempt to repair it, and lose the vehicle on entry, it would be easy to second guess the decision, and decide after the fact that the repair caused the loss, whereas leaving it alone might have brought them home all right.

There are no risk-free decisions. Every action in life, every breath you take, is a gamble. It’s just a matter of judging the odds.

[Friday morning update]

Sorry, Keith, but it wasn’t a joke. It’s a description of reality. I know that you have trouble with that sometimes.

[Monday morning update]

In rereading Keith’s strange comment, I have no idea what he’s talking about here:

…to make sure to get a link to a drunk astronaut story in the process.

The only story I linked (other than Tariq Malik’s) to was one about Lisa Nowak, the main point of which was that NASA has too many astronauts. Reading is fundamental.

* Of course, the fact that we’d lose Barbara Morgan, the other “teacher in space” (quotes because she’s officially an astronaut) would have dire PR effects.

Typical Media Space “Reporting”

Forbes has an article on NASA’s current problems.

NASA officials have taken days to decide whether the hole threatens the safety of the crew or if the astronauts need to get out to repair the damage.

I infer from the way this is written that the author thinks there’s something wrong with “taking days to decide” something affecting the potential loss of vehicle and crew. Did they expect, or want them to rush the decision? The decision doesn’t have to be made until it’s time to go home (or at least, until they are about to run out of time to do a repair, if necessary). It seems proper to me to gather as much information as possible, and not to do so in haste.

The U.S. space agency is already weathering a veritable meteor shower of problems, including allegations of corruption, underfunding, drunken and disturbed astronauts, and even murder.

Can anything be done to turn things around?

NASA spokesman Bob Jacobs says the solution is to emphasize the agency’s strong suit–science.

That’s the agency’s strong suit? I think that’s a dangerous position to take. It might make people question why NASA is spending so much money on things that aren’t science, and so little on their “strong suit.” I expect the public to think that space=science, but it’s disappointing to see a NASA spokesman promulgating the myth.

For a brief moment in 2004–less than a year after the shuttle Columbia disintegrated on its return to Earth–NASA enjoyed a swelling of support. President Bush announced his new program for space exploration. He vowed to complete the International Space Station by 2010, develop a new vehicle to replace the aging shuttle fleet and return to the moon by 2020. The ultimate goal, Bush said, would be a new frontier in space adventure–a human journey to Mars.

And beyond. “Mars and beyond.” The president said that humans are going out into the cosmos. Mars is just one more stepping stone along the way, not the “ultimate goal.” Why can’t they ever get it right?

The administration’s priorities have changed, for obvious reasons.

Really? In what way? And what for what “reasons,” that are supposed to be “obvious”? There has been no change in policy of which I’m aware. VSE was never a high priority, but it was, and remains, the national civil space policy.

But NASA’s recent bad luck has been largely self-inflicted.

For example, there’s the strange case of Lisa Nowak. In February she was arrested after driving more than 900 miles to attack and potentially kidnap a romantic rival in a love triangle involving another astronaut. Last month a NASA study on astronaut behavior and health revealed that some astronauts have been drunk prior to liftoff.

No, it revealed nothing of the kind. We still have no reason to believe that anyone ever took off in a Shuttle while inebriated. Another media myth that will not die.

Just about everyone agrees that the agency is overstretched. In his fiscal-year 2008 budget, President Bush requested $17.3 billion for NASA. A Senate appropriations subcommittee has allotted $150 million more than the president’s request, and the House committee also believes the agency is underfunded.

Vincent Sabathier, director of the Human Space Exploration Initiatives program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says NASA needs another $3 billion per year to do its exploration and scientific work effectively.

“NASA is an amazing tool for the U.S.,” he says. The agency is “in trouble” because “we ask a lot from them, and we don’t give them enough money.” According to Sabathier, the agency needs another $3 billion per year to do its exploration and scientific work effectively.

“For one year of the cost of the war in Iraq,” he says, “we could have a permanent lunar base.”

This is always irritating.

Yes, or for a few months of the cost of social security. Or the amount we spend on vacations. Or interest on the federal debt. There are many potential sources of funding for a lunar base, if having a lunar base is important.

What’s the point? Obviously, this is a person who would object to spending money on Iraq regardless of what alternate use it could be put to, and thinks that others agree with him, so he uses that as an example of where to get the money for a lunar base, as though the problem is simply not enough money, rather than the national priority we assign to having a lunar base. If we chose to, if it were important, we could afford a war in Iraq and a lunar base. As it is, even if there were no war in Iraq, we’d be unlikely to take the funds from it and instead put them into NASA. More likely, it would be used to reduce the deficit. This is a flawed argument.

Speaking of flawed arguments in favor of (and against) space spending, Alan Boyle has a(n inadvertent) gallery of them in his comments section here. You’ll find almost every single one of them.