Category Archives: Space

Obama’s Space Policy

Well, he still doesn’t have one, but there’s nothing particularly objectionable about these comments, as far as they go:

Q: What do you plan to do with the space agency? Like right now they’re currently underfunded, they, at first they didn’t know if they were going to be able to operate Spirit rover. What do plan to do with it?

Obama: I think that, I, uh. I grew up with the space program. Most of you young people here were born during the shuttle era. I was the Apollo era. I remember, you know, watching, you know, the moon landing. I was living in Hawaii when I was growing up, so the astronauts would actually, you know, land in the Pacific and then get brought into Honolulu and it was incredible memories and incredibly inspiring. And by the way inspired a whole generation of people to get engaged in math and science in a way that we haven’t – that we need to renew. So I’m a big supporter of the space program. I think it needs to be redefined, though.

We’ve kind of lost a sense of mission in terms of what it is that NASA should be trying to achieve and I think that we’ve gotta make some big decisions about whether or not, are we going to try to send manned, you know, space launches, or are we better off in terms of what we’re learning sending unmanned probes which oftentimes are cheaper and less dangerous, but yield more information.

And that’s a major debate I’m going to want to convene when I’m president of the United States. What direction do we take the space program in? Once we have a sense of what’s going to be most valuable for us in terms of gaining knowledge, then I think we’ll able to adjust the budget so that we’re going all out on what it is that we’ve decided to do.”

I’ve long said that we need to have a national debate on what we want to do in space, and why–something that hasn’t really happened since NASA was chartered, half a century ago, so I would certainly welcome such a debate in the unfortunate event of an Obama presidency.

My question is, though: why wait? Why not have the debate now, so we can decide who we want to vote for, at least for those of us for whom space is a voting issue (if not the only consideration). What would be the venue and framework for the debate? What does Senator Obama think that the potential options are? Will he be constrained by past thinking, of space as the province of NASA and astronauts, with billions of dollars flowing in its porcine manner to Houston, Huntsville and the Cape, or will he be open to both goals and means that are more innovative than we’ve seen from any previous administration, including the Bush administration? Will he be a candidate for “hope” and “change” for the high frontier?

Well, like all his other positions, he does offer “hope” and “change” for space with the above words, but not clue one as to what we should be hoping for, and what form the “change” will take. In other words, as on other issues, he continues to deal in platitudes, and is unwilling to take a stand, or even discuss potential options, for fear of alienating the voters, who he hopes will continue to view him as a political Rorschach test, and see in his space policy, as in all his policies, what they want to see.

So while I hope that if elected, we will have that national dialogue about space, I don’t have any high expectations either that it will actually happen, or that anything useful will come out of it, because he offers me no substance now.

Of course, even if he told me that he’s going to do all of the things that I’d like to see from a space policy standpoint, it wouldn’t be sufficient to get me to vote for him because a) I couldn’t be sure that he meant it, given his flip flopping on other issues, 2) his positions on other issues are too odious to allow me to be a single-issue voter on space and 3) even if sincere, there’s no reason, given his complete lack of executive experience, that he will have any success whatsoever in implementing them.

Still, I’d sure like to see that national debate.

Party Like It’s 1961!

It’s kind of late now if you didn’t make plans, and I gave advance notice a few days ago, but tonight is Yuri’s Night, as we are reminded by Phil Bowermaster.

And in response to a previous commenter that we shouldn’t be celebrating a Soviet victory in the Cold War, we should be long past that. We won, and in fact, if Gagarin hadn’t flown, we might not have gone to the moon. Of course, it’s debatable whether or not that was a good thing for our expansion into space, in light of the history since.

In any event, it’s an historical event, to celebrate the first time a human left the planet and went into space far enough to actually orbit, and almost half a century later, it transcends politics and a dead communist (and fascist) empire.

We aren’t attending a party, both because we’re not much on partying, if it means loud atrocious dance music, but also because the nearest (and only) one that anyone could muster up in Florida was up in Cocoa Beach. That nothing was organized in the metropolitan tri-counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade says something about the importance of space in our culture, but I’m not quite sure what.

Party Like It’s 1961!

It’s kind of late now if you didn’t make plans, and I gave advance notice a few days ago, but tonight is Yuri’s Night, as we are reminded by Phil Bowermaster.

And in response to a previous commenter that we shouldn’t be celebrating a Soviet victory in the Cold War, we should be long past that. We won, and in fact, if Gagarin hadn’t flown, we might not have gone to the moon. Of course, it’s debatable whether or not that was a good thing for our expansion into space, in light of the history since.

In any event, it’s an historical event, to celebrate the first time a human left the planet and went into space far enough to actually orbit, and almost half a century later, it transcends politics and a dead communist (and fascist) empire.

We aren’t attending a party, both because we’re not much on partying, if it means loud atrocious dance music, but also because the nearest (and only) one that anyone could muster up in Florida was up in Cocoa Beach. That nothing was organized in the metropolitan tri-counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade says something about the importance of space in our culture, but I’m not quite sure what.

Party Like It’s 1961!

It’s kind of late now if you didn’t make plans, and I gave advance notice a few days ago, but tonight is Yuri’s Night, as we are reminded by Phil Bowermaster.

And in response to a previous commenter that we shouldn’t be celebrating a Soviet victory in the Cold War, we should be long past that. We won, and in fact, if Gagarin hadn’t flown, we might not have gone to the moon. Of course, it’s debatable whether or not that was a good thing for our expansion into space, in light of the history since.

In any event, it’s an historical event, to celebrate the first time a human left the planet and went into space far enough to actually orbit, and almost half a century later, it transcends politics and a dead communist (and fascist) empire.

We aren’t attending a party, both because we’re not much on partying, if it means loud atrocious dance music, but also because the nearest (and only) one that anyone could muster up in Florida was up in Cocoa Beach. That nothing was organized in the metropolitan tri-counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade says something about the importance of space in our culture, but I’m not quite sure what.

Reinventing The Wheel

Thomas James has a question that I’ve often wondered about as well:

I have to wonder, has every project I have ever worked on with LM (X-33, VentureStar, ET, CEV/Orion, among others) started from scratch with everything from numbering schemes to release processes to configuration management to data vaulting to drawing formats and standards to basic skill mix and team structures? You’d think that after so many decades that a lot of this stuff would have become routine by now — revised periodically as new technology becomes available, of course, but not built anew every time.

A counter argument to this — and one I used frequently when confronted with the All-Encompassing Michoud Excuse for Not Improving Processes: “That’s the way ET does it” — is that one ought to take advantage of the start of a new program to incorporate the lessons learned from other programs, thereby continuously improving the way business is done. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a middle ground between status quo and Year Zero when it comes to these things.

Every time we used to do a proposal at Rockwell/Boeing, and have to describe the systems engineering process, it seemed like we had to come with a new process flow description and graphic, as though we’d never done this before, instead of taking an existing one and tweaking it, and this applied all across the board–in risk mitigation and management, trade analyses, etc.

If I were running one of these multi-billion dollar corporations, I’d put someone in charge of boilerplate and legacy, so that there was a one-stop shop of best practices and material for use in both proposing and managing programs. Maybe they have one, and I was always unaware of it, but if that’s the case, that’s a big problem as well.

What Are They, Chopped Liver?

Apparently Aerojet is getting into the responsive reusable engine business (albeit with Air Force funding). I think that’s great, but I have to wonder if the reporter has been paying attention to what has been going on in the industry:

The last US-designed and produced hydrocarbon engine was the Rocketdyne RS-27, based on 1960s technology and now out of production.

There may be some qualifying adjectives that would make that statement true (of thrust greater than X? Used in an orbital launch system?), but folks like XCOR and Armadillo, and Masten, and several contenders for the LLC would be surprised to learn that they haven’t been designing and producing hydrocarbon engines for the past few years.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

The Rocket Racing League is going to make a press announcement on Monday, but the release raises some questions:

Rocket Racing League Composites Corp. will announce the acquisition of a leading aircraft manufacturer and a partnership with a leading engine manufacturer…

…WHO:
Granger Whitelaw, CEO, Rocket Racing League
Peter Diamandis, Co-Founder, Rocket Racing League
Adam Smith, Vice President, EAA
Len Fox, Test Pilot, Rocket Racing Composites Corp.
Scott Baker, President, Velocity Aircraft
Neil Milburn, Armadillo Aerospace
John Carmack, Armadillo Aerospace

We have a missing player, and a new player. XCOR was building the initial racers, but they don’t seem to be represented at the event. And this is the first time that I’ve heard Armadillo associated with the project. So apparently, for whatever reason, Armadillo is now providing propulsion for the racers, and they’re apparently acquiring an aircraft manufacturer (Velocity?). I wonder why they have to acquire Velocity. Can’t they just buy modified aircraft? Or maybe they’re being imprecise in language, and it’s also a partner?

This obviously raises many questions, none of which I know the answers to, but it would seem to be bad news (though of course by no means fatal) for XCOR. It certainly won’t affect their work on the Lynx. It’s also good news for Armadillo, and it means a new customer with apparent confidence in their hardware, even after the engine problems at the cup last October.

Perhaps the questions will be answered at the press conference, if asked.

[Update a few minutes later]

Actually, on reconsideration, it’s not even obvious that it is bad news for XCOR (though clearly John Carmack must think that it’s good for Armadillo, or he wouldn’t have done the deal). It could be that, now that they’re trying to focus on developing a true suborbital vehicle, the RRL work was proving to be a distraction for them that they’ve now gotten out from under. But it’s speculation on my part, either way.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

The Rocket Racing League is going to make a press announcement on Monday, but the release raises some questions:

Rocket Racing League Composites Corp. will announce the acquisition of a leading aircraft manufacturer and a partnership with a leading engine manufacturer…

…WHO:
Granger Whitelaw, CEO, Rocket Racing League
Peter Diamandis, Co-Founder, Rocket Racing League
Adam Smith, Vice President, EAA
Len Fox, Test Pilot, Rocket Racing Composites Corp.
Scott Baker, President, Velocity Aircraft
Neil Milburn, Armadillo Aerospace
John Carmack, Armadillo Aerospace

We have a missing player, and a new player. XCOR was building the initial racers, but they don’t seem to be represented at the event. And this is the first time that I’ve heard Armadillo associated with the project. So apparently, for whatever reason, Armadillo is now providing propulsion for the racers, and they’re apparently acquiring an aircraft manufacturer (Velocity?). I wonder why they have to acquire Velocity. Can’t they just buy modified aircraft? Or maybe they’re being imprecise in language, and it’s also a partner?

This obviously raises many questions, none of which I know the answers to, but it would seem to be bad news (though of course by no means fatal) for XCOR. It certainly won’t affect their work on the Lynx. It’s also good news for Armadillo, and it means a new customer with apparent confidence in their hardware, even after the engine problems at the cup last October.

Perhaps the questions will be answered at the press conference, if asked.

[Update a few minutes later]

Actually, on reconsideration, it’s not even obvious that it is bad news for XCOR (though clearly John Carmack must think that it’s good for Armadillo, or he wouldn’t have done the deal). It could be that, now that they’re trying to focus on developing a true suborbital vehicle, the RRL work was proving to be a distraction for them that they’ve now gotten out from under. But it’s speculation on my part, either way.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

The Rocket Racing League is going to make a press announcement on Monday, but the release raises some questions:

Rocket Racing League Composites Corp. will announce the acquisition of a leading aircraft manufacturer and a partnership with a leading engine manufacturer…

…WHO:
Granger Whitelaw, CEO, Rocket Racing League
Peter Diamandis, Co-Founder, Rocket Racing League
Adam Smith, Vice President, EAA
Len Fox, Test Pilot, Rocket Racing Composites Corp.
Scott Baker, President, Velocity Aircraft
Neil Milburn, Armadillo Aerospace
John Carmack, Armadillo Aerospace

We have a missing player, and a new player. XCOR was building the initial racers, but they don’t seem to be represented at the event. And this is the first time that I’ve heard Armadillo associated with the project. So apparently, for whatever reason, Armadillo is now providing propulsion for the racers, and they’re apparently acquiring an aircraft manufacturer (Velocity?). I wonder why they have to acquire Velocity. Can’t they just buy modified aircraft? Or maybe they’re being imprecise in language, and it’s also a partner?

This obviously raises many questions, none of which I know the answers to, but it would seem to be bad news (though of course by no means fatal) for XCOR. It certainly won’t affect their work on the Lynx. It’s also good news for Armadillo, and it means a new customer with apparent confidence in their hardware, even after the engine problems at the cup last October.

Perhaps the questions will be answered at the press conference, if asked.

[Update a few minutes later]

Actually, on reconsideration, it’s not even obvious that it is bad news for XCOR (though clearly John Carmack must think that it’s good for Armadillo, or he wouldn’t have done the deal). It could be that, now that they’re trying to focus on developing a true suborbital vehicle, the RRL work was proving to be a distraction for them that they’ve now gotten out from under. But it’s speculation on my part, either way.

What Fresh Hell Is This?

ATK is making noises about commercializing Ares 1. Unsurprisingly, it’s full of bovine excrement right off the bat:

Ron Dittemore, president of ATK Launch Systems, said the human-rating that led NASA to build the Ares I first stage around the shuttle booster should also be attractive to other customers with “high-value” payloads, including the Defense Dept. and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

“Ares I can deliver humans, can deliver payload to low Earth orbit; it can deliver payload to geosynchronous Earth orbit and beyond – planetary missions – it’s got that much capability,” Dittemore said at the 24th National Space Symposium here. “And what’s unique is that since we’re designing this vehicle with human reliability, proven demonstrated systems, high-value payload customers may see a real attractiveness to putting either DOD or NRO payloads on this launch system.”

First of all, the Shuttle booster is not “human rated.” The Shuttle itself is not, and never has been, human-rated (I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I wish that we could expunge the phrase “human rating” from our vocabulary–very few phrases in the space business are as misunderstood and misused by so many as this one). What he means is that the fact that they have been willing to use the SRB for the Shuttle (despite the fact that in the case of Challenger, it destroyed the vehicle and killed the crew) led them to decide that it was reliable enough to use for Ares.

One of the things that people don’t understand about “human rating” is that it is not (just) about reliability, which is the probability of mission success. Human rating is about safety, which is a different thing. It is about the ability to know when the mission is about to go sour, and the ability to safely get away from the vehicle before it does. So while reliability is nice, what’s much more important is warning time and escapability, from the launch pad all the way to orbit (something that the Shuttle has never had, which is why it’s not human rated).

But satellites aren’t going to have a launch escape system, so they don’t care about human rating. What they care about is reliability, and I have seen zero evidence that Ares is going to be more reliable than either Delta IV or Atlas V. Human rating the latter two vehicles will not involve making them more reliable–it will involve putting in the systems needed for adequate failure onset detection (FOSD) and ensuring that they have adequate performance to eliminate abort blackout zones throughout their trajectory (something much more difficult for the Delta than the Atlas, due to to its underpowered second stage). So from a mission assurance standpoint, Ares has nothing to offer to a satellite owner over the current commercial vehicles.

Moreover, there is no discussion of cost. Even if they can get away with not having to amortize development, because the government paid for it and it’s sunk, how much of an army will a NASA-developed/operated vehicle require? History would indicate a pretty large one, particularly given the politics of the situation. So will a commercial launch have to pay its share of the annual fixed operating costs, or will ATK (unfairly) be able to subsidize and undercut the ULA by only paying marginal costs for the launch, and having NASA pay the freight for the rest? And it will have to use the VAB for processing, and the NASA pad for launch. Will NASA be reimbursed for the use of its facilities? How much?

This seems like a huge potential bucket of worms, and all because NASA decided that it had to develop its own launch vehicle.

Is ATK serious? I doubt it. I suspect that this is just a PR move to maintain political support for it among the rubes inside the Beltway who don’t understand these issues, to show that it has applications beyond the NASA lunar (and ISS) missions. Unfortunately, it may work.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Oh, and how could I forget this? How thrilled will the satellite owners be to put their bird on the paint mixer that is the Ares 1, on top of that five-segment solid, when they can get a smooth ride on a Delta or Atlas?