In April this year, he told a Senate panel: “If one were to do as some have suggested and fly the shuttle for an additional five years — say, two missions a year — the risk would be about one in 12 that we would lose another crew. That’s a high risk ….. [one] I would not choose to accept on behalf of our astronauts.”
So he’s saying that each of those flights has a probability of success of 99.1% (about one in a hundred chance of losing the vehicle). That’s the number that, when taken to the tenth power (the number of flights) comes out to a 92% probability of not losing a vehicle. 99% is slightly better than historical record, based on the two losses of Challenger and Columbia, but I would expect after all the money they spent on resolving foam and other issues that they should have a much safer vehicle now (probably the safest it’s ever been). Is he assuming some kind of reduction in reliability as the system ages or we can’t replace parts over that fiveyear period? I’m curious to know how they came up with it.
Q: So libertarian-minded people should be fine with that, right?
A: Let me tell you all the nice things about Sarah Palin: Sarah Palin has been a pretty freaking awesome governor. She came in saying that the entire system was corrupt, and that Republicans were evil, and she was going to just mix everything up and get us a gas pipeline and end of story. And she got to power, she was elected overwhelmingly by independents, beat Tony Knowles, who had been governor before.
The Republicans hate her. If you go and talk to the Alaska delegation here, they despise her.
Q: Really?
A: Hate her. Oh my god! This whole thing about her retarded son really being her daughter’s was started by Lyda Green, who is president of the senate, a Republican…
Q: I was just talking to someone who claimed to have knowledge of Alaska to some degree, and they say where Sarah Palin comes from it’s the equivalent of Humboldt or Chico in California, like, of course, you know, she’d have a Girls Gone Wild phase, and smoking pot. Is this just wishcasting, or what can you tell us about her geographical background?
A: So the Mat-Su Valley, you know, Matanuska-Susitna Valley, otherwise known as Upper Wingnuttia, is full of right-wing libertarian militia fundamendalist Christian gun-toting, pot-growing dope-heads.
I just heard that Fox News reported that they had a poll that indicated that people were more interested in the vice-presidential debate than the presidential one by about two to one. But they left out the most interesting debates (unlikely as they would be). What do you think?
If McCain wins, look for a full-fledged race and class war, fueled by a deflated and depressed country, soaring crime, homelessness – and hopelessness!
The frightening thing is that these people probably really believe this stuff.
If health insurance for all, an end to the Iraq War, an end to torture and illegal wiretapping, and a sane energy policy can be obtained at the price of destroying one teenage girl, her family, and the surrendering our self-respect I see that as a cheap trade.
And to think that these creatures consider themselves our moral betters.
There’s an interesting discussion in comments between Clark Lindsey and Dwayne Day (and others, though those are less interesting) on how much progress we have made in achieving the goals of the new private space industry over at Space Transport News.
Clark tends to be a glass-half-full kind of guy. Dr. Day thinks there are a few drops in the bottom, and they’re poisoned.
That’s how the McCain campaign describes stories about their not properly vetting Governor Palin. Surely the media, with all its vaunted layers of fact checkers and editors, would never do such a thing?
Well, it’s what one might expect from an Alaskan. It also explains why the press and the left are so completely wrecking themselves in attempting to derail her. They don’t understand libertarians, only able to think in simple minded terms of “liberal” and “conservative.” And I have to say that if this is what John McCain means by “maverick” I’m all for it.