Category Archives: Business

The Neo-Puritans

of both parties:

For the half hearted worldling like myself, who can never quite summon up all the moral fiber necessary for a grimly earnest New England crusade, all forms of Puritanism are suspect. But unlike the “Christianists under the bed” crowd over at the Daily Dish, I’m less worried about the puritanism of the right than the puritanism of the left these days. First, because American society is so firmly set against old fashioned right-wing prudishness, Romney’s “conservative” puritanism is probably a lesser threat to the freedoms of the people than the secular puritanism of the enlightened left. Public acceptance of homosexuality is likely to increase, for example, no matter who takes office next January; even after eight grim years of two Romney terms, you are still going to be able to see bare breasted women on “Boardwalk Empire” and “Game of Thrones.” Romney and the right are fighting the tide on many of these issues, so any efforts on their part to force more moral conformity on the population are unlikely to go all that far.

The other reason I worry less about the right’s tendency toward moralist dictatorship is federalism: the left likes its regulation at the national level and thinks the Federal government should set the tone for the whole country. The right on the other hand makes more room for the states. If we must be governed by meddling nanny state puritans, I would rather live in a country that had fifty petty moralistic dictatorships rather than one big one; I’d at least have a chance of finding a place where my favorite foods and amusements wouldn’t be banned by law. Surely there will be one state somewhere in this republic that will let me put some extra salt on my freedom fries.

Professor Mead doesn’t expand on the theme of this as being one of the folkways described in Fischer’s Albion’s Seed, but ever since reading that book it has always been clear that the “progressives” are the current incarnation of the Puritan tradition that came over from East Anglia in the seventeenth century. It was very clear that Hillary fell into that camp (whereas Bill was a redneck). But I had never thought before of the Mormons as being an offshoot of it. It makes sense. They’re not descended from Quakers, or the Cavaliers, and certainly not the Scots-Irish. So there are some similarities between Obama and Romney, but for the reasons that he mentions in the quote above, I’m much less concerned about Romney in that regard.

This discussion reminds me of my post from years ago about why we should worry much more about Leftist urges to control us than that of the social-issues right. Will Wilkinson disputed it at the time (though the specific example he used of Ashcroft’s fear of a marble tit turned out to be a Democrat urban myth). I wonder what he thinks now, given the economic disaster confronting us from the Democrat depradations of the last six years?

The Heinlein Quote, Visualized

Bad Luck

Here’s the quote, for those unfamiliar: “Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty. This is known as “bad luck.

Oh, and just to remind that not only do tax-rate cuts not cause financial crises and recessions, but the wars didn’t cause the deficit or debt increase.

Wars Didn't Cause Deficits

It’s a shame that Kelly Ayotte didn’t have that chart handy yesterday when Governor O’Malley spewed his stupid ignorance. Or lie. Or whatever it was.

The SpaceX Launch Anomaly

I just got back from dinner, but apparently people have begun discussing it in comments at this relatively unrelated thread.

I don’t know much about it, so all I’ll say is that if they had a first-stage engine problem, it proves out their design capability to have mission success with engine out.

Clark Lindsey has some notes from the post-launch press conference.

[Update a few minutes later]

I would go further, and state explicitly that this increases my confidence in their vehicle. It was an inadvertent flight test of a capability that they would hope they don’t have to use, but now know that it works.

[Update a few minutes later]

Never mind my first response to Paul Breed in comments. Apparently it wasn’t just an engine shutdown — a first-stage engine exploded.

That puts a different complexion on things.

Now the question is, what is different about that Merlin than the one on the second stage, other than nozzle size? Well, there’s the environment. It occurred during Max Q, so the second stage wouldn’t have to worry about that.

If it had happened on the second stage, would it have just resulted in a lost of thrust (that is, does the second stage have a similar shrapnel protector) or would the stage itself have exploded?

If the former, it would probably be survivable (that is, payload or crew recovered) without an abort system, though a mission failure, so a concern for payload customers. If the latter, it might have happened too quickly for an abort system to be activated. It all depends on how much warning they had that the engine was going south. But obviously this would be of concern for commercial crew. Of course, as discussed in comments, this engine version will be retired after the next flight, currently scheduled for January, so if that one goes all right (and they certainly won’t fly until they understand what happened to this one), it will have retired with a 98% demonstrated reliability, and the Merlin 1D will have a clean slate on the following flight.

[Monday morning update]

Charles Lurio notes in email that one difference besides nozzle size (and environment) between upper and lower stage engines is the lack of active cooling in the nozzle of the latter. This would only be significant if the failure was caused by a problem in one of the cooling channels.

Economic Ignoramus?

…or liar?

Governor O’Malley on Fox News Sunday, in an attempt to defend the president, said that it “was not true” that he hadn’t cut the deficit in half as he promised. How? By confusing the deficit with the debt. He said that when the president came into office it was ten trillion, and it had only gone up six trillion since then, which was about “half.” Or something like that. It wasn’t clear what his point was, but it was clear that he either doesn’t know what the word deficit means, and the difference between it and the debt, or he thinks we’re stupid. Unfortunately, Senator Ayotte, while sticking to her guns, didn’t point out his ignorance in real time, nor did Chris Wallace.

Of course, being an economic ignoramus and a liar are not mutually exclusive by any means. Many Democrats seem to be both.

Plasma Jet Electric Thrusters

An interesting Kickstarter project.

Via (former co-blogger) Andrew Case, who writes:

It will be interesting to see if crowd funding of space projects is viable. I know that there’s a guy who successfully funded a project to study a lunar space elevator, but as far as I know this is the first that is focused on something practical that has a real chance of flying in the short term.

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on the subject.

I think it’s very viable, and a useful model for the future. It will be even better when we can start crowd funding actual businesses via the JOBS Act, and not just technology development.

[Late evening update]

Yeah, I know, I know. I was gone all day, and Trent provided it in comments, but here’s the link.

[Update a few minutes later]

Ignore my response to Paul Breed in comments. Doug Messier is now reporting that the engine exploded. If so, that puts a different complexion on things, but it still proves out their engine-out capability for the first stage, including shrapnel shield. The question is, as Paul notes, what are the differences between first and second-stage Merlins, if any, that can give us confidence in the second-stage reliability? Also, what would have happened to the Dragon had it happened on second stage? Just a loss of thrust, or an explosion of the entire stage (that is, would the explosion have taken out the tanks above as well, or does it have a similar shrapnel shield)?

In terms of commercial crew, the former wouldn’t necessarily require an abort system, and the latter probably wouldn’t be helped by one, unless there was sufficient warning to activate it. So it will be interesting to know from telemetry how soon they knew the engine was going south.

Singing My Tune

When I was at the AIAA meeting in Pasadena last month, Doug Stanley told me that this study would be coming out soon:

Commercial launch with propellant depot architectures significantly improves the extensibility and mission payload capability by providing a robust framework for all foreseen missions in the next 30 years. Adding to commercial launches every few months provides experienced and focused workforce to improve safety, operational learning for reduced costs and higher launch reliability, reduce launch costs depending on the government/industry business model. The depot framework allows multiple competitors for propellant delivery that is low-risk, hands-off way for international partners to contribute because it is not in the critical “mission” path and provides redundant alternatives available if critical launch failure occurs. The architecture provides reduced critical path mission complexity (Automated Rendezvous and Docking events, number of unique elements), provides additional mission flexibility by variable propellant load. Commonality with COTS/commercial/DoD vehicles will allow sharing of fixed costs between programs and “right-sized” vehicle for ISS, thus stimulate US and international commercial launch industry. Development risk is reduced by eliminating four space elements including the major Earth-to-orbit launch vehicle and solar electric propulsion transfer vehicle, large mass margins with current and proposed launch systems, and the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer in-space technology demonstration program. Finally, the architecture creates powerful partners from commercial US industry and internationals that increases political sustainability of the overall program.

But other than that, it totally sucks.