Category Archives: Economics
Future Visions, Current Issues In Space
I haven’t read it yet, but this testimony from the Brookings Institute looks like it could be interesting.
Space Tourism
Alan Ladwig reminded me this morning of a paper I wrote on the subject almost two decades ago (about a year and a half before I started blogging). It’s interesting to read it now and see how well (or poorly) it holds up. Few policy makers paid much attention to it at the time.
A Shocking Space Announcement
Bridenstine announced today that he wants to send Orion on EM-1 in 2020, on a commercial rocket, including orbital fueling. I haven’t read Eric’s take yet, but I’m sure I’ll have my own.
[Update a while later]
Because what could possibly go wrong with a giant rocket that's never flown before?
— Kenneth Chang (@kchangnyt) March 13, 2019
2043: "With the first flight of SLS continuing to be delayed after only spending $70B on it, NASA has decided to send the first crew to Enceladus on commercial space transports, with hopes that the indispensable SLS can be used for the second mission."
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 13, 2019
[Update a few minutes later]
Thoughts from Anthony Colangelo:
On-orbit assembly was always said to be too complicated and risky to consider, and that is why SLS reigned supreme—because it has the ability to launch missions alone. But if EM-1 is flown on commercial vehicles, and the capability to assemble this type of mission on-orbit is proven, that’s as dead as SLS could ever be.
Almost 10 years ago, SLS was born out of the ashes of a program that would fly this type of mission in the same way—crew flown on Ares I, an upper stage flown on Ares V.
It’s ironic—and fitting—that it might die in the same way it was born.
It will have taken far too long.
[Late-morning update]
First, there will be no humans aboard. It's an uncrewed test flight.
But a lot of people are throwing around the phrase "human rated" when they apparently don't know what it means. Launch systems per se are not "human rated." Integrated systems, including crew systems, are.
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 13, 2019
This was a capability that the Shuttle did not have (which is what killed the crew on Challenger. Prior to SRB separation, there was no ability to abort. This is why (one more time) the Shuttle WAS NOT HUMAN RATED. It had to fly with waivers on every single flight.
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 13, 2019
What makes Falcon 9, or Falcon Heavy, or EELV "human rated" is the ability to a) tell ground and crew that something is going wrong in time to abort and b) having a crew capsule capable of aborting. Put such a capsule on any of those vehicles, and it's human rated.
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 13, 2019
But people like to throw the phrase around because they think it makes them sound like they know what they're talking about.
The only useful way to talk about this is in terms of probability of loss of crew. If it's low enough for the mission, you fly. Period.
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 13, 2019
One more point, related. There is no such thing as a "human-rated" engine, or avionics, or any component. Components are not human rated. Only a full integrated system on the launch pad is.
Thank you for listening to my TED talk based on Chapters 3 and 4 of my book.
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 13, 2019
[Update a few minutes later]
Per some comments:
What I'd really like to see is an SLS/Orion launch, except instead of SLS use Falcon Heavy, and instead of Orion, use Dragon 2. It would be a great SLS/Orion program outcome.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) March 13, 2019
[Thursday-morning update]
Another shocking development! OK, not really. SLS defenders defend SLS.
[Update mid-morning]
Eric Berger has more details. Yes, it’s possible that having to use two Delta IVs will be the price that NASA has to pay to get Shelby’s blessing for this, though that would make it a lot tougher to pull off. They’ve never launched two of those in such a small timeframe. Maybe Delta IV plus Atlas V.
[Update late morning]
Here‘s Marina Koren’s current take.
[Noon update]
A message from Bridenstine to the NASA workforce:
Yesterday, I was asked by Congress about the schedule slip of the Space Launch System and plans to get NASA back on track. I mentioned that we are exploring the possibility of launching Orion and the European Service Module to low-Earth orbit on an existing heavy-lift rocket, then using a boost from another existing vehicle for Trans Lunar Injection. Our goal would be to test Orion in lunar orbit in 2020 and free up the first SLS for the launch of habitation or other hardware in 2021. This would get us back on schedule for a crewed lunar orbital mission in 2022 with the added bonus of a lunar destination for our astronauts.
We are studying this approach to accelerate our lunar efforts. The review will take no longer than two weeks and the results will be made available. Please know that NASA is committed to building and flying the SLS for the following reasons:
- Launching two heavy-lift rockets to get Orion to the Moon is not optimum or sustainable.
- Docking crewed vehicles in Earth orbit to get to the Moon adds complexity and risk that is undesirable.
SLS mitigates these challenges and allows crew and payloads to get to the Moon, and eventually to Mars, safer and more efficiently than any temporary solution used to get back on track.- I believe in the strength of our workforce and our ability to utilize every tool available to achieve our objectives. Our goal is to get to the Moon sustainably and on to Mars. With your focused efforts, and unmatched talent, the possibility of achieving this objective is real.
Ad astra,
Jim Bridenstine
This is really a message to Dick Shelby. He has to continue to pay lip service, even though he knows it’s nonsense.
Space Solar Power
It’s baaaaaaack.
I had lunch with Tom Colvin from the Science and Technology Policy Institute last month in DC, and he was interested in what the current prospects for this are, to provide an input to the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. I put him in touch with both John Mankins and Pete Garretson, so we’ll see if anything comes of that.
Trump’s “Slashing” Of “Science” Budgets
Ummmmm…no.
The media hysteria is also mistaken (as always) in imagining that NASA human spaceflight has (and has ever had) much to do with science.
China’s Space Program
Dwayne Day dumps cold water on all the hysteria about it. I agree.
The 2020 Trump Budget Request
NASA starts at page 97.
It’s the beginning of the end for SLS. NASA wants to do Europa on a “commercial vehicle,” plans for Block 1B are “deferred,” and they propose commercial providers for getting to and from the moon itself, which means that SLS has nothing to do except the Gateway, and it can’t do the Gateway without the new upper stage planned for Block 1B.
It will be interesting to see the Congressional response. One thing it does do is continue to flow the wasteful funding for Block 1 to the right zip codes, so Congress may not care. Culberson is gone now, and if this budget passes with that wording, it would end the legislative requirement to use SLS for Europa.
[Update a few minutes later]
This budget is basically an implicit admission that SLS serves no purpose other than to ship taxpayer funds to the right zip codes. Even Gateway doesn't need it. Which means that the need for the Gateway itself goes away, since its primary mission was to give SLS something to do. https://t.co/oohwiukMwS
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) March 11, 2019
This is an OMB proposal. Bridenstine had to provide lip service to SLS to get confirmed. I wonder what he’ll say when he gets called on the carpet by Congress?
[Tuesday noon update]
Yes, Dr. Stofan, NASA could get to Mars sooner, but it doesn’t need more money, it just needs to spend the money it gets more sensibly. They could get to Mars in five years if they could use the SLS/Orion budget for something useful.
[Bumped]
[Update a while later]
Space Launch System recap over the last two years:
* Delayed from 2018 to 2021
* A single flight in Block 1 configuration to indefinite amount
* All upgrades deferred
* Europa mission moved because of delays
* Gateway moved to private rockets— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) March 11, 2019
But other than that, it’s had a great two years.
Free-Market Meat
Some thoughts on the tradeoffs with animal cruelty. I would love to get pork in a cruelty-free way, and I’d vastly prefer factory-manufactured steak and bacon, if it was indistinguishable in every way from that obtained by killing cattle and pigs.
[Update a while later]
This seems related, somehow: Vegan “pork” rinds.
I disagree with this, though:
Apparently, the gourmands have discovered pork rinds. Yes, the deep-fried, not at all good for you, salt-laden, very high fat, treat found rarely if ever outside the US South or (as chicharones) where there is a sizeable Mexican consumer pool.
They’re actually quite keto, because low carb (close to zero). There’s nothing wrong with high fat, as long as it’s not seed oils.
Venezuela
The collapse is near.
Via Stephen Green, who writes: “We’re watching the last chapter of Atlas Shrugged play out in Venezuela in realtime.”
Yes, it was supposed to be a cautionary tale, not a how-to manual.
[Update a few minutes later]
Aaaaand the water plants have shut down.
[Update mid-afternoon]
Trump’s biggest challenge: Educating the kids on socialism. We shouldn’t have to do this, but the schools clearly haven’t. And unfortunately, that’s no accident.