An “explainer” by Adam Blackstone on what the attempted landing means. It’s a good history of SpaceX, with implications for new space industries.
Category Archives: Economics
Fifty-Dollar Oil
Is it a floor, or a ceiling?
Competitive market conditions would therefore dictate that Saudi Arabia and other low-cost producers always operate at full capacity, while US frackers would experience the boom-bust cycles typical of commodity markets, shutting down when global demand is weak or new low-cost supplies come onstream from Iraq, Libya, Iran, or Russia, and ramping up production only during global booms when oil demand is at a peak.
Under this competitive logic, the marginal cost of US shale oil would become a ceiling for global oil prices, whereas the costs of relatively remote and marginal conventional oilfields in OPEC and Russia would set a floor. As it happens, estimates of shale-oil production costs are mostly around $50, while marginal conventional oilfields generally break even at around $20. Thus, the trading range in the brave new world of competitive oil should be roughly $20 to $50.
Makes sense to me.
[Update a few minutes later]
I’ve long said that oil over a (inflation adjusted) hundred dollars a barrel was unsustainable. This would seem to validate that.
A Message For The Pope
From Venezuelan bishops: Communism sucks for the poor. It’s not clear the degree to which he understands that.
High-Speed Rail
It’s not news that Kevin Drum opposes it, but it’s still nice to see attacks on it from the left. Yes, it is a waste of time and money.
Fight For Space
The documentary project has a trailer out, and a new Kickstarter to complete and release it. It seems to have evolved considerably (and usefully) from the original project.
The Spaceship That Almost Landed
My thoughts on this weekend’s mostly-successful flight over at PJMedia.
A Plague Of Dementia
If we don’t figure out how to treat it, that will be the consequence of an aging population.
Dealing With Climate Change
No, it’s not like going on a diet:
Even when people aren’t directly invoking the carbon diet in their language, they often echo its principles by suggesting that everyone needs to cut back. But it falls apart—and starts to seem downright sinister—when you look at its priorities. Most of the world does not need a carbon diet. Three-quarters of the global population uses just 10 percent of the world’s energy, 1 billion people lack access to electricity, and 3 billion cook their food over dung, wood, and charcoal, leading to millions of early deaths. These people are energy starved—and they need a feast, not a diet.
These people are essentially advocating mass murder.
High-Speed Rail
California goes full boondoggle:
IF the internet doesn’t change the way people work, reducing both commuting and the demand for business travel, IF the giant project doesn’t mimic almost all similar projects and develop gigantic cost overruns that make a mockery of the initial cost elements, IF resourceful NIMBY groups and their lawyers don’t find too many endangered species in its path or otherwise tie it up in endless litigation, IF self driving cars don’t make rail travel obsolete, IF the fares aren’t so high even with subsidies that passengers shun it, and IF unlike almost all other passenger rail service in the U.S. it doesn’t lose buckets of money, this project could look like a smart move.
IOW, it’s insane.
SLS, And ARM
I can’t even start to describe how insane this is.
How do they propose to do two SLS launches for a mission when they are only planning one every couple years? And why in the world would they need one to launch crew?