Category Archives: Economics

The Fragility Of Complex Societies

Thoughts from Victor Davis Hanson:

I don’t know quite why many of our environmentalists and urban planners wish to emulate such patterns of settlement (OK, I do know), since for us in America it would be a matter of choice, rather than, as in a highly congested Japan, one of necessity. Putting us in apartments and high rises, reliant on buses and trains, and dependent on huge centralized power, water, and sewage grids are recipes not for ecological utopia, but for a level of dependence and vulnerability that could only lead to disaster. Again, I understand that in terms of efficiency of resource utilization, such densities make sense and I grant that culture sparks where people are, but in times of calamity these regimens prove enormously fragile and a fool’s bargain.

Actually, many of them do favor decentralization and “appropriate” technology. But most of them also favor depopulation. And some of those favor it by whatever means are necessary.

Public-Employee Union Thuggery

Some thoughts:

In the letter to Wisconsin businessmen, however, we see why so-called collective bargaining is particularly corrupting to the police. Although the letter explicitly threatens only an economic boycott, when it is written on behalf of the police–of those on whom all citizens depend to protect their safety–it invariably raises the prospect of another kind of boycott. Can a businessman who declines this heavy-handed “request” be confident that the police will do their job if he is the victim of a crime–particularly if the crime itself is in retaliation for his refusal to support “the dedicated public employees who serve our communities”?

Sykes sums up the letter this way: “That’s a nice business you got there. Pity if anything were to happen to it if, say, you didn’t toe the line and denounce Governor Walker like we’re asking nice-like.” He’s right. “Organized” law enforcement bears a disturbing resemblance to organized crime.

Outlawing public-employee unions was one of the few good ideas that Franklin Roosevelt had. And most notably, for the right reasons.

[Update a while later]

Pedagogy:

Aren’t you forgetting a thing or 2? You’ve got them chanting “Hey hey, ho ho, Scott Walker has got to go” — but what do they know about Scott Walker? That he’s done something the teachers don’t like. So, maybe some day, when you do something they don’t like, some kid might start “Hey hey, ho ho, [TEACHER’S NAME] has got to go.” Today, you’re pleased to teach them “The children, united, will never be divided.” I’m picturing them repurposing that chant back in the classroom.

What will you do if they learn the lesson you’re teaching them, to denounce legitimate authority when it crosses your heartfelt interests?

I don’t know which is more of an abomination, a policeman’s union or a public-teacher’s union. If one of those kids were mine, I’d sue, but then, I probably would have pulled them out of the public schools long before.

Better Late Than Never

Steven Chu finally steps forward:

The Obama administration’s most vocal advocate for nuclear power said Tuesday that the nuclear disaster unfolding in Japan will eventually help the United States strengthen safety at its 104 reactors.

Energy Secretary Steven Chu told a House panel that “the American people should have full confidence that the United States has rigorous safety regulations in place to ensure that our nuclear power is generated safely and responsibly.” But he said that the administration “is committed to learning from Japan’s experience.”

It’s not just about improving existing reactors, but in designing the many new ones we will need. But I’m glad they’re not using this as an excuse to pander to their technophobic base, as they did in the Gulf mess with the moratorium.

How Did Japan’s Bullet Trains Fare?

Not all of them so well:

Clearly, some of the country’s slower commuter trains were caught in the tsunami. There are reports, again unconfirmed, that up to four of these trains were involved. Wading through photos on the Internet, I found at least three discrete shots of derailed trains, although it is possible the passengers survived.

If indeed a bullet train was lost, it will likely be the working of the law of unintended consequences. For the most part, bullet trains north of Tokyo run inland, so these were probably out of the tsunami’s range (see this map). However, there’s a small loop seaward to Sendai, among the hardest hit areas of the island. This is pure speculation here, but given the timing of the shock wave and the following tsunami, it is possible that safety systems stranded one or more trains in the path of the killer wave. Commuter trains follow a much longer stretch of coastline, and would have been particularly vulnerable.

…liberal planners just might want to reexamine their ideological yearnings for high-speed rail, namely their conviction that it is somehow “better” for people to live in concentrated urban clumps, connected by public transit, than in diffuse, sprawling suburbs. Densely populated Japan must rely on rails to get people to and from work. When centralized systems like these fail, they fail across the board and, as appears likely in Japan, will be out of commission for a long time; aside from the track damage, electrical shortages due to nuclear-plant shutdowns are forcing service reductions. Suburbs and cars, on the other hand, are distributed systems, with inherently redundant roads and vehicles that are more resistant to natural disaster. Rescue workers aren’t taking the train to succor tsunami victims, they’re driving.

This makes a lot more sense than rethinking nuclear power.

The Japanese Economy

Will this disaster be the last straw?

Immediate thoughts:

1) Depending on how much of the nuclear industry was affected, this could result in the need for more imported oil, putting more pressure on global prices.

2) If the yen collapses, it can’t be good news for either Europe or us, as the article points out.

3) This is good news for Korea and Taiwan, and even China, who will pick up a lot of the manufacturing slack at least in the near term.

4) Expect to hear a lot of ignorance about how this is the best thing that could have happened to the Japanese economy, with all the jobs that will be created rebuilding, and comparisons to how they recovered from much worse devastation after the war. This will be a display of the broken window fallacy, and it will be ignoring the fact that the resources necessary for that renaissance (which took decades) came from the US. Any time wealth is destroyed (see “cash for clunkers”), the world is worse off, even if localities benefit.

[Sunday morning update]

The financial impact: five things to watch.