For those who have been following the foofaraw about Shuttle extension, and the supposed “conflict” between what Lori Garver has said versus John Shannon (Shuttle program manager), he has responded in comments over at Space Politics. Part of the issue is nomenclature, and what Shuttle “extension” really means. If by that you mean continue operations into the future at the current flight rate, there’s not enough money in the world to do so, so Lori is correct in that regard. If you mean instead to not shut down the program, and waste lots of money keeping the standing army in place, and hope that they don’t lose their edge, while you’re waiting two or three years to get tanks produced again, then yes, you could “extend” the Shuttle, but I’d call that more something like, hibernate and resurrect it. Either way, there is no way to avoid reliance on the Russians in the near term (and the same would have been true with the Program of Record). Once the decision was made to shut down tank production a couple years ago, the die was cast. And there is no real conflict between what the Deputy Administrator and Shuttle PM are saying.
I would note that opponents of the decision have decided to make Lori the focal point of their anger, and will grab any cudgel that comes to hand to beat her, imagining somehow that if they can just dispose of their newfound enemy, that the realities of the budgetary situation will go away, and that all will be well in Aresland again. As they have been for years, they are in denial.
[Update late morning, in fact, after the one that follows this, so I don’t screw up the flow over the fold]
It occurs to me that there’s an aspect of Shuttle extension (or continuation, or whatever) that hasn’t been discussed. One of the reasons to shut down Shuttle in 2010 was to save money that could be then diverted to VSE. But another one (and particularly after Constellation was born) was to free up pads 39A and B to be converted for Ares operations (plus to make other KSC facilities available). If Ares isn’t being developed, the urgency to get the Shuttles off the pads goes away. I’m not sure that’s sufficient reason to keep flying it, but it’s one more issue to be considered. I continue to think that continuing to fly Shuttle is a huge opportunity cost of the available budget, and that if Congress wants to do so without increasing the budget, they’ll have to decide what they want to give up. To give up the best near-term and nearest-term alternative (commercial) would be a travesty.
[Update a few minutes later]
There are a lot of comments to wade through there, so I hope Jeff won’t mind if I just repost the Shannon comment here to make it easier to find and relink (it would help if he had Space Politics set up to provide individual permalinks for comments, as I do here). Continue reading John Shannon Responds →