Well, here’s the latest in the Perils of Ares I–it might sideswipe the gantry as it launches:

The issue is known as “liftoff drift.” Ignition of the rocket’s solid-fuel motor makes it “jump” sideways on the pad, and a southeast breeze stronger than 12.7 mph would be enough to push the 309-foot-tall ship into its launch tower.

Worst case, the impact would destroy the rocket. But even if that doesn’t happen, flames from the rocket would scorch the tower, leading to huge repair costs.

“We were told by a person directly involved [in looking at the problem] that as they incorporate more variables into the liftoff-drift-curve model, the worse the curve becomes,” said one NASA contractor, who asked not to be named because he wasn’t authorized to discuss Ares.

“I get the impression that things are quickly going from bad to worse to unrecoverable.”

But all is not lost:

NASA says it can solve — or limit — the problem by repositioning and redesigning the launchpad.

Sure. No problem. Just reposition and redesign the launch pad. Simple, safe, soon.

NASA officials are now looking at ways to speed up the development of Ares and are reluctant to discuss specific problems. But they insist none is insurmountable.

Of course they do.

“There are always issues that crop up when you are developing a new rocket and many opinions about how to deal with them,” said Jeff Hanley, manager of the Constellation program, which includes Ares, the first new U.S. rocket in 35 years.

“We have a lot of data and understanding of what it’s going to take to build this.”

Yes, they have so much data and understanding that they don’t find out about this until after their fake Preliminary Design Review. And (just a guess), I’m betting that if I look at the original budget and development schedule, “repositioning and redesigning the launch pad” isn’t even in or on it.

Look, obviously, if you pick a lousy design, you can eventually make it fly, given enough time and money. But in the process, it may end up bearing little resemblance to the original concept, and if it’s neither simple (which it won’t be with all of the kludges that they’ll have to put on it to make up for its deficiencies), safe (no one really knows what the probability of loss of crew is, since they still haven’t finally even nailed down the launch abort system design) or soon, then the nation has been sold a pig in a poke. And there’s no budget line item for the lipstick either, though NASA has been attempting to tart it up as best they can.

As Einstein once said, a clever man solves a problem–a wise man avoids it. Since Mike Griffin came in, NASA has been too clever by half. Given the budget environment we’ll have next year, it’s hard to see how this unsustainable schedule and budgetary atrocity survives in anything resembling its current form.