Category Archives: Political Commentary

McCain’s Infant Strike Force

Malicious and mendacious propaganda from Moveon.org? Say it ain’t so!

This reminds me of that idiotic interview that O’Reilly did with Michael Moore a few years ago, when Moore kept asking O’Reilly if he would send his child to Iraq. If O’Reilly had been on his toes, he would have pointed out that a) no “children” are sent to Iraq and b) that the adults who do so have signed up for the service voluntarily, and don’t need their parents permission, and are not “sent” by their parents, unless their parents happen to be their commanding officers. But this mindless trope of the left will never die.

[Afternoon update]

This is a pretty funny comment, over at Maguire’s place:

Don’t be misled by the name, lady: the 3rd Infantry Division is not made up of infants.

Hey, you can’t expect them to know about this stuff.

McCain’s Infant Strike Force

Malicious and mendacious propaganda from Moveon.org? Say it ain’t so!

This reminds me of that idiotic interview that O’Reilly did with Michael Moore a few years ago, when Moore kept asking O’Reilly if he would send his child to Iraq. If O’Reilly had been on his toes, he would have pointed out that a) no “children” are sent to Iraq and b) that the adults who do so have signed up for the service voluntarily, and don’t need their parents permission, and are not “sent” by their parents, unless their parents happen to be their commanding officers. But this mindless trope of the left will never die.

[Afternoon update]

This is a pretty funny comment, over at Maguire’s place:

Don’t be misled by the name, lady: the 3rd Infantry Division is not made up of infants.

Hey, you can’t expect them to know about this stuff.

Nothing New About That

Keith Cowing thinks that the Coalition for Space Exploration is asking the wrong questions.

If the Coalition for Space Exploration really wants to further the notion of a robust taxpayer-funded program of space exploration – one based on a solid footing of public support – then they need to start paying attention to what their polls actually say and stop trying to skew the results to say something that the numbers do not support. If, however, they want to support space exploration – regardless of how it comes about – then they need to re-examine their motives – and ask different questions.

People might not want to pay more taxes for space exploration, but they might be interested in buying a ticket.

Indeed.

As usual (and perhaps inevitably), an organization ostensibly set up for the purpose of supporting space exploration in general ends up being a NASA cheerleader. That’s partly because a lot of the funding for it comes from the space industrial complex. In any event, these polls should always be taken with a grain, if not a whole shaker of salt. They’re based on public ignorance, and once again demonstrate that support for the current plans are a mile wide and an inch deep.

“Slo Mo” Disaster

Alan Boyle has an interesting story on flood prediction. Well it is to me, anyway.

Robert Criss, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, agreed that the forecasts have been “remarkably accurate” – within the limits of the system, that is. He noted that the flood wave is working its way down the Mississippi River at about walking speed, giving the forecasters time to analyze the water’s course, and giviing emergency officials time to react.

“It’s like a traffic jam. The cars move slowly through the jam, and this big stuff is coming our way slowly and inexorably,” Criss said.

The damage will be in the billions. And of course, some will say that this is a sign of climate change. But the real reason that the cost of these disasters is increasing is not because the weather is any different than it has been in the past but rather because people foolishly build in flood plains, because they don’t understand the nature of statistics. There is no such thing as a “hundred year flood,” at least in the sense that you can expect that there will be one per century, and after you’ve had one, you’re safe for another hundred years. All it means is that statistically, one would expect one to occur that often, on average. Having one does not inoculate you from having another the next year (or even the next month), any more than chances that the next coin flip will be heads is increased by a previous tail. It’s fifty-fifty every flip, and it’s one in a hundred every year (assuming that the estimate is correct). This is the same kind of thinking as the guy who always carried a bomb on the plane with him, on the logic that the chances that there would be an airplane with two bombs on it were minuscule.

A perfect example is the 2004 hurricane season, which I drove over from California in early September to enjoy. I arrived in Florida just in time to put up shutters and batten down the hatches in our new house, when Frances hit us.

It was the first time a major storm had hit the area in many years, and most of the people who had lived here, even long-time residents, had gotten complacent. In fact, I recall sitting next to someone on a plane to LA earlier that summer, shortly after we’d bought the house, but before the storms. He was a real estate agent in Palm Beach County, and I mentioned that one of the things I didn’t like about moving to south Florida was the hurricanes. He waved it aside, saying, “we don’t get hurricanes here.” I just shook my head.

Anyway, three weeks later, just as we were getting power back on and cleaned up from Frances, we got hit by Jeanne, which made landfall in almost exactly the same place (up around Fort Pierce). So this was not only a “hundred year” (or perhaps a “thirty year”) hurricane, but we had two of them within a month. And of course, the cost of hurricanes will continue to grow, not because hurricanes are getting worse, but because, as in the midwest, and partly out of statistical ignorance, we continue to provide them with ever more, and ever more expensive targets.

[Update a couple hours later]

Jeff Masters thinks that climate change is causing 500-year floods to become more frequent. I don’t think we have enough data to know that for sure (particularly since things have actually been cooling down in the last few years), but as he points out, another anthropogenic effect is the draining of wetlands for farming and building of levees to protect them. Levees work fine (until they suddenly don’t) but they intensify effects down stream.

“Slo Mo” Disaster

Alan Boyle has an interesting story on flood prediction. Well it is to me, anyway.

Robert Criss, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, agreed that the forecasts have been “remarkably accurate” – within the limits of the system, that is. He noted that the flood wave is working its way down the Mississippi River at about walking speed, giving the forecasters time to analyze the water’s course, and giviing emergency officials time to react.

“It’s like a traffic jam. The cars move slowly through the jam, and this big stuff is coming our way slowly and inexorably,” Criss said.

The damage will be in the billions. And of course, some will say that this is a sign of climate change. But the real reason that the cost of these disasters is increasing is not because the weather is any different than it has been in the past but rather because people foolishly build in flood plains, because they don’t understand the nature of statistics. There is no such thing as a “hundred year flood,” at least in the sense that you can expect that there will be one per century, and after you’ve had one, you’re safe for another hundred years. All it means is that statistically, one would expect one to occur that often, on average. Having one does not inoculate you from having another the next year (or even the next month), any more than chances that the next coin flip will be heads is increased by a previous tail. It’s fifty-fifty every flip, and it’s one in a hundred every year (assuming that the estimate is correct). This is the same kind of thinking as the guy who always carried a bomb on the plane with him, on the logic that the chances that there would be an airplane with two bombs on it were minuscule.

A perfect example is the 2004 hurricane season, which I drove over from California in early September to enjoy. I arrived in Florida just in time to put up shutters and batten down the hatches in our new house, when Frances hit us.

It was the first time a major storm had hit the area in many years, and most of the people who had lived here, even long-time residents, had gotten complacent. In fact, I recall sitting next to someone on a plane to LA earlier that summer, shortly after we’d bought the house, but before the storms. He was a real estate agent in Palm Beach County, and I mentioned that one of the things I didn’t like about moving to south Florida was the hurricanes. He waved it aside, saying, “we don’t get hurricanes here.” I just shook my head.

Anyway, three weeks later, just as we were getting power back on and cleaned up from Frances, we got hit by Jeanne, which made landfall in almost exactly the same place (up around Fort Pierce). So this was not only a “hundred year” (or perhaps a “thirty year”) hurricane, but we had two of them within a month. And of course, the cost of hurricanes will continue to grow, not because hurricanes are getting worse, but because, as in the midwest, and partly out of statistical ignorance, we continue to provide them with ever more, and ever more expensive targets.

[Update a couple hours later]

Jeff Masters thinks that climate change is causing 500-year floods to become more frequent. I don’t think we have enough data to know that for sure (particularly since things have actually been cooling down in the last few years), but as he points out, another anthropogenic effect is the draining of wetlands for farming and building of levees to protect them. Levees work fine (until they suddenly don’t) but they intensify effects down stream.

Keep In The Vote

Burt Prelutsky hopes that teenagers won’t go to the polls:

Whenever I suggest that teenagers shouldn’t be allowed to vote for anything but student body president or prom queen, I know that someone is bound to say, “If they’re old enough to fight and die in Afghanistan and Iraq, they’re old enough to vote.”

To which I invariably respond, “You’re absolutely right. If they’re serving in the military, I agree they should be able to vote. But if they’re still in school, still getting an allowance and using their mom or dad’s credit card to buy gas, I say they have no more business electing the president than my dog Duke does.”

Let’s face it, ladies and gentlemen, if we raised the voting age to, say, 25, the Democratic party would go the way of the dodo and the Whigs. Liberals want young kids voting for pretty much the same cynical reason they want to extend suffrage to illegal aliens, convicted felons and dead people.

It takes a certain mentality, a certain degree of gullibility, after all, to believe plutocrats like the Clintons, the Kerrys, Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, Dianne Feinstein, Michael Bloomberg and George Soros.

I’d expand that to hope that teenagers of all ages stay away from the voting booth.

A Year Later

What happened to the benchmarks?

In the wake of the September testimony, anti-war lawmakers and media outlets refused to let up on the benchmark mantra. For them, victory or defeat in Iraq hung on those 18 points. Party big shots like Harry Reid and Joe Biden publicly cited the failure to meet the benchmarks as evidence that Iraq was hopeless. House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn issued a statement saying: “Despite the clear evidence that the Iraqi government has failed to make the necessary political progress and deliver on 15 of 18 benchmarks outlined by the Bush administration, the president wants to establish a permanent presence or ‘enduring relationship’ in Iraq, continuing to sacrifice an unacceptable level of American blood and treasure.”

Well, if the benchmarks were all-important to Democrats in the fall of 2007, they have become meaningless to them in 2008. When is the last time you’ve heard a benchmark reckoning from Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi? The reason for the deafening silence on this matter is simple. The military and political progress in Iraq has proved so monumental that the majority of the benchmarks have now been met.

I agree with the author that Congress should come up with some benchmarks for itself.

Just A Coincidence, I’m Sure

RIchard Fernandez connects some dots that may account for Senator Obama’s shifts in Iraq policy:

The shifts in Barack Obama’s policy toward Iraq show a remarkable correlation with the rise and fall of Tony Rezko’s business prospects in the Chamchamal Power Plant. As the story of the Rezko syndicate is exposed in his Chicago trial, the subject of its Iraqi commercial interests will come under a brighter light. Barack Obama has already said of his convicted ex-fundraiser, “this is not the Tony Rezko I used to know.”

For some reason, the MSM doesn’t seem interested in this kind of stuff.