…may be happening more slowly than the models predicted.
You don’t say. But those of us who were appropriately skeptical about the models at the time were called “deniers” and worse.
[via Iain Murray]
[Update a few minutes later]
Tim Ball: Climate models can’t even approximate reality. The hubris of these people who think they can model climate with any confidence whatsoever is astounding.
If Jose hits DC and NY, I blame them, for voting for Hillary. And for being anti-science on gender and race.
Rest in peace (I have no idea how to copy/paste on these damned finger painting devices, but Instapundit has a text from his son, Alex)). He was an amazing person with an amazing life. I last saw him when I dropped by Chaos Manor a couple years ago to give him a copy of my book, which he reviewed very nicely.
I’ll have more to say when I’ve survived the hurricane and gotten back to a real computer.
[Sunday-morning update, as the winds rise outside our Boynton Beach apartment]
Sarah Hoyt remembers someone she considered a friend and colleague.
When I stopped by to see him a couple years ago, we talked about what was happening with SpaceX and NASA in general, and reminisced about our long-time mutual friend Bill Haynes, whom he hadn’t been aware had been killed in an auto accident on Palos Verdes on his way to church a couple years earlier (both Buzz and I had delivered a eulogy, but I think that Jerry was too sick at the time). It was a tough conversation because his hearing was shot, both from the brain cancer that he’d survived, but long-term from being an artillery handler in Korea. When Roberta let me into the library, I had to figure out how to get his attention without startling him, because the bell wasn’t doing so. I was unsuccessful, but he had no problem once he realized the unexpected intruder was me.
Heading back to LA, probably Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, Irma and American Airlines willing. I hope I’ll be able to attend the service and see a lot of old (sadly, in both senses of the word) friends.
[Late-evening update on Sunday]
J. Neil Schumann has some remembrances, too. I suspect we’ll see a lot of this over the next few days.
[Monday-morning update]
Glenn Reynolds writes that, as a kid in the gloomy 70s, Jerry gave him (and many others) hope for a better future.
A simple proof:
as a person familiar with both mathematics and computer science, this variation is not odd, in fact it’s completely understandable. After all a computer model is based on the best possible guesses from the available data and hurricanes are “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” so there is nothing at all odd about there being a 850 mile variation as to where it will it. As we get closer to Sunday and we have true data to input the variation in the models will correspondingly decrease.
Now apply this to climate change models telling us we face disaster in 100 years.
You aren’t dealing with a single “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” you are dealing with EVERY complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes that exists on the earth. Every single additional item you add increases the variation of the data models. Furthermore you are also dealing with variations in the sun, variations in the orbits of the earth, its moon and more.
And that’s just the variations in natural phenomena, imagine the variation in industrial output on the entire planet for a period of 50 or 100 years.
Think of the computer modeling and tracking of that single hurricane and apply this thinking to the climate of the earth as a whole. How accurate that model is going to be over 100 years, 50 years, 25 years or even ten years?
Would you be willing to bet even your short term economic future on it, would anyone in their right mind do so?
Not me.
They don’t seem to be able to do it on global warming, at Glacier National Park. (We visited there in the early nineties, then went on to Banff, Jasper and Yoho).
A first-hand account from Houstonian and amateur (but competent) meterorologist Eric Berger. This will certainly be the costliest storm in US history to date.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Michael Mann versus Joe Bastardi. One is a “climate scientist,” the other understands how weather works.
It could well be that 125 years is the maximum, with current body design, though we may develop alternative repair mechanisms. But as I always say, there are no laws of physics that require that we age, and ultimately, the only laws are physics.
It’s not a giant rabbit (and the name will likely be retired after this storm). When he’s not reporting on space, Eric Berger (a Houston resident) covers tropical storms. He says the rain outlook is grim.
An analyst says that it’s a virtually infinite source of oil.
There will be no peak oil, just peak oil demand. https://t.co/wmEDGeboJE
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) August 25, 2017
And it’s bad news for bad people around the world.
[Update a few minutes later]
Mexico’s largest shale field is now open for business. In theory, this should help the economy down there as well, and perhaps relieve the pressure to emigrate. But the place is still pretty corrupt.