But bad for the Gulf coast. All of the models for Fay have shifted the track west, and it now looks unlikely that it will hit southeast Florida, so I probably won’t have to put up the shutters on Monday. Still need to keep an eye on it, though.
[Late morning update]
That was the 2 AM runs. The 8 AM model update has it coming back slightly to the east, over the Florida peninsula, with GFDL just to the west of us, which is a little too close for comfort. But still, no decision before Monday.
The circulation finally closed this afternoon, but the storm is going to have to fight its way through the mountains of Hispaniola. It seems to have gone directly from a low to a storm, without the usual intermediate tropical depression (does that mean that TD 6 remains available for the next one?). Unfortunately, even though the chances that it will actually hit Boca Raton aren’t high, I’ll probably have to shutter up on Monday, just in case.
The good news is that most of the models are taking it over Cuba as well, which will keep it from intensifying much. If it comes up here, the only chance for strengthening will be in the open water over the Straight of Florida (where it would beat up the Keys). If it stays at tropical storm force, as SHIPS is currently predicting, I may be able to get away without shutters, as we did with Ernesto two years ago. Only one of the 2 PM model runs (HWRF) has it coming through town. The tracking models are probably going to get better now that there’s a definite center of circulation to use as a starting point. Unfortunately, I’m kind of in the middle of the spectrum. By Monday, it should be more clear where this thing is going.
Sigh…
I prefer earthquakes. You don’t have any false alarms with them.
[Update about 6:30 PM EDT]
Jeff Masters confirms my own thoughts:
If Fay does hit South Florida, the storm is likely to be a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, since it will not have enough time over water to reorganize much. I think the models are overdoing the intensification of Fay once it does pop off the coast of Cuba. We saw in 2006 that Ernesto popped off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm, and took a full 36 hours to get its act together. If Fay misses South Florida and veers either to the east or west of the Peninsula, the storm could easily reach Category 2 status before a potential landfall either on the Gulf Coast or in North Carolina/South Carolina.
So if it’s a major storm, it won’t be one here. But we won’t really know until late Sunday or Monday.
I’ve been keeping an eye on that disturbance in the Atlantic for a few days, but it’s starting to look like there’s a chance of a hurricane here early next week. The models are all showing it curving to the north off the coast, and missing Florida, but the models aren’t to be trusted this far out. I may have to shutter up on Sunday.
[Update early afternoon]
This morning’s model runs have it heading across the top of the greater Antilles, and then tearing up through the Bahamas. Except for GFDL, which has it heading right up the Florida east coast, starting in northern Palm Beach County, and then right up to the Cape, four and a half days from now (i.e., late Monday). Despite my earlier musings on the palliative effects on space policy from a Kennedy Center hurricane, I hope it’s wrong.
Is the Yellowstone caldera fizzling out?
This adds to suggestions that the plume has disconnected from its heat source in the Earth’s core. If this is true, it means the plume could be dying – and that the sequence of mega-eruptions could come to an end. “If it doesn’t have clear source, as it rises eventually the plume will die out,” says Schutt.
Let’s hope so. A Yellowstone explosion could be a civilization-ending event, and there’s not much we can do to prevent it, at least with current technology.
Eric Raymond is.
I am not. I’ve never been in a serious , or even mock fight, and never had a desire to be. I probably wouldn’t have made it far in an earlier time. One of the many reasons I’m glad to live here and now.
I have a new piece up on this week’s non-discovery of water on Mars.
Is climate change racist?
Sometimes these people become parodies of themselves (as in the old gag New York Times headline: “World Ends–Women, Minorities Hit Hardest”).
I’m sure glad that this issue hasn’t been politicized.
And a fundamentalist one, at that:
When Salon interviewed me about my new book, “Saving Darwin,” I suggested that science doesn’t know everything, that there might be a reality beyond science, and that religion might be about God and not merely about the human quest for a nonexistent God. These remarks got me condemned to whatever hell Myers believes in.
Myers accused me of having “fantastic personal delusions” that could actually lead people astray. “I will have no truck with the perpetuation of fallacious illusions, whether honeyed or bitter,” Myers wrote, “and consider the Gibersons of this world to be corruptors of a better truth. That’s harsh, I know … but he is undermining the core of rationalism we ought to be building, and I find his beliefs pernicious.”
Myers’ confident condemnations put me in mind of that great American preacher, Jonathan Edwards, who waxed eloquent in his famous 1741 speech, “Sinners at the Hands of an Angry God,” about the miserable delusions that lead humans to reject the truth and spend eternity in hell. We still have preachers like Edwards today, of course; they can be found on the Trinity Broadcasting Network. But now we also have a new type of preacher, the Rev. PZ Myers.
And they don’t even recognize it in themselves. Dawkins and Myers and Hitchens are doing more harm than good for science in their evangelizing, I think.
Is it almost over? Let’s hope so.
Girls have caught up with boys at math.
Does this vindicate all of the mature, liberated women who had to hie to their fainting couches at Larry Summers’ comments a few years ago?
Not really. He never said that boys were better, on average, than girls. His comment was that there was a much higher standard deviation for boys, which was why there were more brilliant mathematicians among them (it also means that there are more innumerates among them). This was posited as a possible explanation for the disparity in math PhDs and faculty between men and women, a conservative proposition for which he was hounded from the presidency of Harvard (though it was really just the last straw, and excuse).