Category Archives: Space

Suzanne Kosmas

OK, I said I was signing off, but in a surprise, the local congresswoman is giving a brief talk.

Excited to be the newly elected congressperson from Florida 20th (the Cape), lives in New Smyrna Beach, and has watched Shuttles for years. Wants to bring other congress members down to share the enthusiasm. On the science committee not because she knows about science but because of her passion for space. Entrepreneurship demonstrated here is an important component to keeping America the premiere nation for space, and there is great synergism with the Florida entertainment industry. As a long-time business owner, thinks thatus her two-year-old son will be a customer. Bought an astronaut suit at the Dulles museum, and he fell in love with it, and now says “My shuttle, my shuttle,” since seeing the launch live. Sees partnership with private enterprise and entrepreneurship as being key. Says that commercial space is important to Senator Nelson as well, and wants to be partners with the people at this summit at the federal level, helping with regulatory issues, and looks forward to working with us.

It was a quick speech, and it looked like it was without notes and she made no news, but it was encouraging. We’re about to go to a reception with her and everyone else, where I may ask her a question or two. I’m curious to know if she’s aware of the ITAR problem.

Later.

Off For The Day

Sorry for the light summit blogging after a fast start. A combination of networking and having trouble with my setup. But Doug Messier has been taking good notes to pick up my slacking off (not a permalink, but if you’re reading this in the next day or so, just keep scrolling). Probably off line until tomorrow morning, when the ISDC starts.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Oh, one more thing. Jon Goff has some interesting thoughts on lunar COTS.

Immersive Simulation

Tami Griffith of the Army Simulation Tech and Training Center is describing the use of current technology for training. Shows a video of interfacing a Wii and balance board with Second Life. Apparently a lot of people are hacking the Wii for things like this. She says that whole-body training is much more effective and memorable than joysticks or cockpit simulators.

Cool.

Financial Issues In Space And Hospitality/Tourism/Entertainment

First panel is to discuss the synergy between financing for space and entertainment. “Space is not a destination.” “Space is an enabler for a variety of business verticals.” “Space accelerates and expands business verticals by providing new, disruptive ways of doing business.” Using Internmet analogy with book sales. Space-related viability may exist in areas we haven’t heard of.

Four categories: launch infrastructure, R&D and manufacturing, system operations, end-user applications. latter includes entertainment. They build on each other. “Infrastructure” is categories of large-scale hardware systems, similar to railroad lines back in 1800s. Necessary for applications: healthcare, materials, science, media/entertainment, communications, governance, energy and mining, defense, transport operations. “Governance” is things like disaster relief and planetary monitoring.

Entertainment needs infrastructure beyond mere launch — more like real estate, with facilities in space. Near-term opportunities include media and entertainment, comm and governance. Other apps are longer term. Defining media and entertainment as space tourism, ground-based training and simulations, and documentaries and GPS-related games, live video feeds from orbit, real-time earth imagery, etc.

See suborbital space tourism as important near-term app which fits cleanly within hospitality/entertainment business that requires precursor infrastructure. Virgin Galactic embodies transition — selling one-week experience with suit and simulations, not just a flight. Shouldn’t forget orbital space tourism, which is further down the road, but Bob Bigelow’s modules are an early stage of the hospitality industry in orbit.

Providing an overview of structure of hotel investment business. Major hotel chains are no longer significant investors in real estate — they manage the properties for investor groups. So don’t look to them for financing of space hotels. Look for private equity funds, insurance companies, private investment trusts, investment banks both domestic and international, which are the current industry financiers. Current markets are impacted by the financial crisis, but expects people to come back in the water in the future, because it’s a good traditional model. Hotels will be interested in participating via franchise names (e.g., Hilton) but no as investors.

What drives terrestrial hotels? Business traveler, groups and meetings, leisure. What services are required for space travel? Have to consider similarities and differences with: cruise ships, all-inclusive hotels, suborbital/orbital travel. Consider advance deposits for space hotels. Consider scuba industry as a model. Preparation somewhat similar to suborbital training in length/time, understanding of technical issues/risks. Has been very successful, and training could become significant industry in itself, even for people who don’t fly, at destination resorts.

[Late morning update]

I got pulled off into some discussions, but Jeff Foust is twittering the panels (not a permalink).

[Afternoon update]

Doug Messier blogged this panel as well.

The China Analogy, Redux

Here is a post comparing the voyages of Zheng He to the modern US space program. Arthur Kantrowitz is the first that I’m aware of to make this comparison, back in the seventies.

I think that it’s an interesting analogy, but not in the way they intend, and I wrote about it a few years ago at Fox News:

…some have argued that in essentially turning our backs on the cosmos after the rapid success of Apollo, in favor of welfare programs and pork, our own politicians have given us a similar failure of vision.

But that draws the wrong conclusion. The fact was that Zheng He’s journeys were a failure. They sent out vast amounts of the nation’s treasure with which to impress the heathens and gain tribute and the appropriate respect (just as is the goal for the current Chinese space activities). But when trade occurred at all, the ships often came back with items that were perceived to be of less value than what had been sent out to the ports. The trade was not profitable — it was draining vital resources. The bureaucrats were right.

The Chinese suffered a failure of expansionary will 600 years ago because they were doing it for the wrong reasons. And I suspect that the current leadership is similar to Zheng He in their outlook. His missions were for national prestige — not the generation of wealth — as, apparently, are the current Chinese space plans.

As was America’s Apollo program.

Space will not be settled by governments, whether Chinese, Russian, or American. It will be settled by the people who want to go, and seek their own opportunities, and dreams. Governments can help, and if the Chinese government can navigate the difficulties I describe above, and actually eventually get to the Moon, that might be one way of helping, not just the Chinese, but as the article states, all who want to go. But I suspect that there will be private activities that beat them to it, and we cannot, and should not, count on Beijing.

We will know that things are moving forward seriously in space when, in addition to remote-sensing and communications satellites, there are activities going on in space, involving humans in space, that bring more value back than is put into them. Unfortunately, communist governments (which China’s remains, despite propaganda to the contrary) are not notable for their value-added activities, and I don’t think that the present Beijing regime is that far removed from its predecessors, either in the Ming Dynasty, or the Mao Dynasty.

But I hope they’ll prove me wrong.

I continue to so hope.

More Bolden Commentary

There’s a story at the LA Times. Not much new, but I thought that this was worth a comment:

Logsdon said he believed the skepticism about Obama’s support for manned flight was “misguided” from the first. The comment about taking money from NASA was made by a junior campaign aide, he said.

I’m disappointed in Professor Logsdon. His own comment is more than “misguided.” It’s disingenuous, and in fact false, though I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and just assume that he’s unfamiliar with what actually happened, and was told this by someone else (though he should be following it closely, being a premier expert on space policy and all…).

It wasn’t merely a “comment” from a “junior campaign aide.” He says this as though it was just an aside on background. No. It was the official position in a white paper at the campaign web site. Jeff Foust described the history of the Obama space-policy shifts, and their ongoing nebulosity, back in August.

If Senator Obama didn’t pay any attention to it at the time (we know how much trouble he has getting good help) and he’s since reversed it (and he seems to have) that’s great, but I see no point in whitewashing the history of what happened. It was an area of legitimate concern for space (or at least NASA) enthusiasts at the time, and it does provide legitimate cause to question how deep his enthusiasm is now. His supporters might claim that he had a road-to-Damascus moment, and now talks about how excited he was by Apollo growing up in Hawaii, but he was talking about that prior to the “funding education by delaying Constellation” time period as well.

I remain an agnostic on the degree of support of this president for either space, or NASA. Only the future will tell.

The Heroes Of Space

Frank Sietzen says that we should remember them as well on Memorial Day.

I agree — in their own way, particularly in the sixties, they were on the front lines of the Cold War. Even if you don’t believe that Apollo and subsequent events (such as ASTP) really helped to bring down the Soviet Union, the people supporting it believed that it was vital at the time, and on Memorial Day, we commemorate all who have served or fallen, regardless of the strategic significance of their efforts in retrospect.

Unfortunately, we’re a little nationally schizophrenic on the subject. We consider what they do vital and important, yet we consider them too important to allow them to take risk, and when they die, the symbolism of their loss overwhelms common sense. This is one of the reasons that human spaceflight is so expensive — we consider astronaut loss unacceptable and will spend billions to prevent even a single incident, even though it’s inevitable if we are to open the final frontier, and economically insane.

Occasional commenter Paul Dietz once noted that if we were serious about opening up space, we’d force America to grow up, and set aside a huge cemetery, like Arlington, to symbolize the numbers of lost pioneers that we expected in the endeavor. I agree.

But in a sense, we have. Down at the KSC Visitor Center, there is a memorial wall that contains the names of those who have died so far, including the crews of Apollo 1, and the Challenger and Columbia disasters. It’s worth noting that there are a lot more than seventeen squares on it. There’s room for many more, should we have the boldness to continue.

[Update late morning]

This post brings to mind what I wrote the day after the Columbia loss:

The crewmembers of that flight were each unique, and utterly irreplaceable to those who knew and loved them, and are devastated by their sudden absence from their lives, and to paraphrase what the president said after September 11, seven worlds were destroyed yesterday.

But, while this may sound callous, the space program will go on just fine without them. They knew their job was hazardous, they did it anyway, and by all accounts, they died doing what they wanted, and loved, to do. There are many more astronauts in the astronaut corps who, if a Shuttle was sitting on the pad tomorrow, fueled and ready to go, would eagerly strap themselves in and go, even with the inquiry still going on, because they know that it’s flown over a hundred times without burning up on entry, and they still like the odds. And if yesterday’s events made them suddenly timorous, there is a line of a hundred people eagerly waiting to replace each one that would quit, each more than competent and adequate to the task. America, and the idea of America, is an unending cornucopia of astronaut material.

When it comes to space, hardware matters, and currently useful space hardware is a very scarce commodity. People are optional. A Shuttle can get into orbit with no crew aboard. It could return that way as well, with some minor design modifications (actuators for nose-wheel steering and brakes, and gear deployment). But no one gets to space without transportation. Many of us would walk there if we could, but we can’t.

Yesterday, we lost a quarter of our Shuttle fleet. The next time we fly, we’ll be putting at risk a third of the remainder. If we lose that one, every flight thereafter will be risking half of America’s capability to put people into orbit.

So, when I grieve the loss of Columbia, it’s not because it was just a symbol. What I truly grieve is the loss of the capability that it not just represented, but possessed. That vehicle will never again deliver a payload or a human to space. It cost billions of dollars to build, and would cost many billions and several years to replace. That was the true loss yesterday, not the crew. I think that people realize this on some level, but feel uncomfortable in articulating it.

As I said, we have to grow up on this issue if we want to open a frontier.

[Update a couple minutes later]

In rereading that post, and following the link to my initial post on hearing of the disaster, I found this sadly prescient (actually, much of the post was, including my initial second guess as to what had happened):

Someone in the comments section asks if the vehicle will be replaced. No, that’s not really possible — much of the tooling to build it is gone. It would cost many billions, and take years, and it’s not really needed at the current paltry flight rate. Assuming that they have confidence to fly again after they determine the cause, they’ll continue to operate with the three-vehicle fleet, until we come up with a more rational way of getting people into space, whatever that turns out to be. Unfortunately, because it’s a government program, I fear that the replacement(s) won’t necessarily be more rational…

My fear, at least to date, has been borne out. I hope that the new Augustine Commission and the new NASA management can rectify it, but it’s only a hope, not an expectation.

To Boldenly Go

…where NASA has never gone before. It’s apparently official that the president has nominated the agency’s first black administrator. But Lori Garver won’t be its first woman deputy administrator — that was Shana Dale.

Of course, they still have to be confirmed by the Senate. And while there were rumors that the administrated wanted “hoopla” associated with the announcement, the first day of a holiday weekend seems like a strange time if that was the goal. I’d have done it at the ISDC in Orlando later this week, with a lot of space-interested attendees present. I wonder if either of them will address the gathering? Lori used to be the executive director of NSS, which puts it on.

What does it mean? Heck if I know. I suspect, though, for good or ill, that neither of them took the job to shut down the NASA human spaceflight program.

And meanwhile, the Hubble-repair crew is stuck in orbit for another day, with continuing much-needed (though not nearly as much needed as it was a week ago) rain and thunderstorms on the Florida east coast. I don’t think they can put off landing past tomorrow, so it’s hoping for good weather at the Cape tomorrow morning, or going to sunny California.

[Update a few minutes later]

“Rocketman” isn’t happy, with what is arguably a slightly racist post (and accompanying comment from an anonymous commenter). I don’t think that either the ATK connection or the fact that he was briefly a “lobbyist” for them are or should be issues (with regard to the latter, the activity wasn’t within the ostensible administration guideline of the past two years). The amount of advocacy seemed to be pretty minimal, and there may even be bad blood there now.

I’m much, much more concerned about the prior (if not current) close relationship with George Abbey. I hope that he won’t be looking there for any advice.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Bobby Block over at the Orlando Sentinel has a story up now. This part concerns me a little:

There has been concern by some in the administration that Bolden would be biased towards human spaceflight and NASA’s current troubled Constellation program to return astronauts to the moon as a first step towards going to Mars later this century.

The Constellation program is wrestling with financial and technical woes and the president has called for a review of the current plans. The White House wanted to make sure Bolden had an open mind before nominating him.

An “open mind” with regard to what? More innovative and affordable means of carrying out the goal? I’m all for it. Or about the goal itself, and turning humanity’s back on space beyond low earth orbit? I hope not.

[Update early afternoon]

For me, the biggest strike against Bolden is that Bill Nelson was such a heavy supporter, and got his way. I should also add that the last time we had an astronaut as administrator (Dick Truly), it was kind of a disaster. He actively lobbied against the Space Exploration Initiative on the Hill in the early nineties, defying his own president. He was fired for his troubles, and replaced by Dan Goldin. But one shouldn’t indulge in the fallacy of hasty generalization and draw any grand conclusions about astronaut administrators in general from a single example.

[Update a few minutes later]

Jeff Foust is rounding up Congressional reaction, from Florida space coast congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas, Florida Senator Bill Nelson, and the chairs of the Science & Technology and Space committees in the House, Democrats all (and the latter, Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, is a former astronaut herself married to an astronaut).

[Update a couple minutes later]

More reaction from Marc Boucher over at NASA Watch:

Ok, it’s now finally official, but what does this mean? NASA’s has some tough budget years ahead of them with Constellation over budget and negative or zero growth budgets coming. President Obama is a science guy and perhaps not so much a human space flight exploration advocate. The reality is that no matter how many speeches he gives where he touts the inspiration of NASA, it takes hard cold cash to make things happen, especially human space flight.

NASA’s fiscal year 2010 budget request of $18.686 billion includes $456M increase for science and $630M increase for Exploration. Some of that increase is because of the one time Recovery Act stimulus money. If you look at projected budgets for fiscal years 2011, 2012, 2013 you see either negative or zero growth. Already sources say Bolden expressed concern at his meeting with President Obama because he was told that further cuts to human spaceflight in future budgets might be needed.

I have no doubt Bolden is a leader, the question is, with the projected budgets he’ll have, can he get Constellation back on track and on schedule? And what effect will the Human Space Flight Review Panel have going forward?

It’s great to see a nominee like Bolden put forward but really how much can he accomplish? Will Bolden be bold in his leadership?

Good questions, all.