Remember Safe, Simple, Soon? Well, I guess they never explicitly said it would be cheap, but they sure implied the hell out of it:

NASA’s initial internal estimate of what it would cost to modify the current SRB used for Shuttle missions to serve as the first stage of the new Crew Launch Vehicle had been around $1 billion. That estimate has been revised up to around $3 billion.

Nice bait and switch–you have to admire ATK for their marketing, if nothing else.

And tell me again, what was the estimate to “human rate” an EELV? And more to the point, how many very juicy first, second and third prizes for low-cost crew access to LEO could three billion dollars fund?

Also, for any enterprising muckraising space journalists out there, this has been a juicy scandal waiting to happen, what with Scott Horowitz’ recent job change, and all. Moreover, it could potentially be one that kills the Satay (or as Henry Spencer calls it, Porklauncher I).

I’m just sayin’…

Paul Spudis reviews Harrison Schmitt’s book on returning to the moon.

The vehicle presumably still had a lot of propellant in it when the engine cut off and it fell back on the reef, presumably in flames from the fire that caused the problem, and wouldn’t be shut down by the cutoff valve. Why wasn’t there an earth-shattering kaboom?

…of ants and islands. I doubt if it will persuade anyone, though, even if they get the point.

We start with the richest among us only able to afford a few minute or a few days in space. As we get richer and space gets cheaper, we can have space studios, then space apartments, space mansions, space palaces and space shopping malls. People live where they are. The spectrum from tourism to settlement is just a measure of time. Where does space tourism leave off and space settlement begin? Two-week time shares are probably tourism. One-way tickets, definitely settlement. What’s the down payment on a one-year lease?

This isn’t really news for anyone paying attention, but I found this article about the potential for an asteroid hit in 2036 interesting, because it describes a new method of diversion that I hadn’t considered or heard of previously (though it’s obvious, once you think about it).

It’s called a “gravity tow,” in which you hover a large mass near the asteroid, and maneuver it, pulling it from its trajectory simply using the gravitational attraction between them. It seems like the safest, most controlled way to go, and doesn’t require physically grappling, which could make problems worse if you end up breaking it. I’m glad to see that there’s a lot more thought going into this than the traditional “nuke it” approach.

Occasional co-blogger Sam Dinkin’s new space tourism venture kicks off today.

[Update a few minutes later]

Here’s more from Sam, over at The Space Review.

[Another update a couple minutes later]

I just noticed that Sam beat me to tooting his horn here.

[Late night update]

As one of Glenn’s emailers points out, that’s marketing.

You’ve been hearing me talk about my venture ever since I started co-blogging with Rand. Anyway, it’s real and it’s live. Win a trip to space for $3/entry. There’s a new animation of the Rocketplane trip too.

–Update 2006-04-03 11:30–

Rand, I am glad to see you are over your April 1st malaise and can tout a basement startup. Alan Boyle has more in his article at MSNBC.

OK, I’ve had a long day, I’m coming down with a cold, and I’m tired, but I’ve got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over. Just in case I do end up posting a little more, because it’s such an important post, I’m going to keep it at the top until the end of the day.

I’ve been really depressed for the last week as a result of the failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private space. I’ve gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up the new frontier.

I’ve come to realize that we do in fact have launch systems that work, most of the time, even if they’re expensive. We have a space station, if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it, and start to turn it to the useful ends for which it was intended. Shuttle is risky, but any new frontier is risky. We need to work hard and spend whatever it takes to continue to minimize the risk of losing our priceless astronauts, even if we don’t fly it for another three years. We have a president with a vision, a Congress willing to support it to a degree, and a new NASA administrator (a genuine rocket scientist–something we’ve never before had as a NASA administrator, and isn’t it about time?) with great ideas about how to get us back to the moon quickly (or as quickly as the stingy folks on the Hill are willing to fund).

Maybe it’s just because I’m getting old, or don’t feel well, but I know now that relying on guys in garages, operating on shoestrings, is never going to get us into space. The skeptics are right–Rutan’s done nothing except replicate what NASA did over forty years ago.

Furthermore, I realize now that it’s not important that I get into space myself–what’s important is that the opportunity is there for my children. Or my grandchildren. Or my great-grand children. It may take a long time, because we know that space is hard.

What’s important is that we have to keep striving, keep supporting these vital efforts, never let our interest flag or wane, in getting our people back to the moon, and on to Mars, no matter how long it takes, no matter how much it costs. Yes, it costs a lot, but we are a great country, and a rich one. There are so many other things that the government wastes money on, it’s very frustrating that we can’t get the support we need to ensure that this NASA human spaceflight program, critical not just to our nation’s future, but to that of humanity, can’t move faster. I now realize that Mark Whittington is right, and that there’s a very real chance that the Chinese will beat us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever it takes.

Ad Astra.

“…when the government’s not involved.”

Alan Boyle has been attempting to do some investigative reporting on his home-town rocket company, Blue Origin. It’s certainly been the hardest of the upstarts to get much info on, but it’s a tantalizing story. My inner editor tells me that he needs to end it with an adverb, though. 😉