Michael Belfiore describes what looks like a potentially great book on the new space age.

Virgin Galactic mailed me a survey which you can access. Answer truthfully. I (owner of SpaceShot) am not like the competitors that Julian Simon talks about in his mailorder books that tries to muck up competitors’ surveys. They inquire about pricing for Virgin Galactic Quest in $10 increments from 0-60+. Drop me a line at transterrestrial@dinkin.com or comment what you think tournament entries for a trip to space should cost. Also tell me what kind of profit margin you think would be fair. And whether a bundle of more than one entry would be OK. Note that credit card fixed charges are $0.30 + 2-3% at paypal which has a restrictive skill games policy and $0.40 or more elsewhere so credit cards will eat up 6-7% of a $10 charge, but only 4-5% of a $20 charge. Can someone give me a quote for the cost of building and analyzing one of those surveys? (I don’t want to buy one, just validate my decision not to.)

I don’t know whether to categorize this as “Space” or “Media Criticism” (often the case, given how often the media get space issues, like most issues, wrong).

Jeff Foust has a follow-up on the Wired News article that said March Storm was a front for people who wanted to militarize space. I was originally willing to give the reporter the benefit of the doubt, and just consider it shoddy reporting, and him a shoddy reporter. But it’s clear now that he had an agenda (something that should probably have been clear at the time, given that he took a nutcase like Bruce Gagnon far too seriously). As far as I’m concerned, he has zero credibility from this point forward.

Clark Lindsey sees some reason for hope that the new rocket companies may be able to achieve their cost (and business) goals. It would be interesting to see what conventional aerospace costing models would have predicted for RDT&E and ops costs for a government Eclipse program. We have to break out of the cost-plus culture, and ESAS does nothing toward that end.

Jesse Londin has a good overview of the public (mostly industry) comments to the FAA-AST NPRM on suborbital launch regulations. This is an issue that I’m a little concerned about:

Along with the comments filed by the Peronal Spaceflight Federation, Pat Hoar for Space Adventures, offered a few additional thoughts; and with regard to the FAA’s statement “The FAA does not expect orbital commercial human space flight to occur in the immediate future” Pat specified: “Space Adventures notes that it has sent three space flight participants to the International Space Station since 2001 with additional orbital space flight participants currently in training. Space Adventures assumes that the FAA intended to say ‘

Maybe.

I doubt if it will kick off a space race with Arabia, though. Mark Whittington will be disappointed again.

OK, it looks like Thomas James was too hard on Dr. Hansen, because it does indeed look like the quotes were taken out of context, as several commenters pointed out. And as the latest escapades of Bruce Gagnon (as reported at Wired News) show, it’s truly unfair to lump the two together. When it comes to moonbattery, Bruce is simply in a class by himself, a virtual one-man belfry. But what’s really appalling about this article is the shoddy reporting. Jeff Foust shreds it. Clark Lindsay isn’t impressed, either.

The latest edition of NewSpaceNews is out, with a roundup of alt-space activities from around the web.

Thomas James (who reads this stuff so you don’t have to, though it’s entertaining even if you do) has the latest roundup, including a certain NASA scientist who’s been in the news recently.

If numbers get repeated often enough, like in this gallery of commercial space opportunities, they start to be believed. Business 2.0 as part of a big spread on space investment opportunities in their March cover story retells some whoppers.

Space Hotels: $5B/year by 2015

This is inconsistent with Futron and world launch capabilities and expense. First let’s see if someone wins the America’s Space Prize. Expensive travel means very little revenue. By 2025, very possible if space access costs drop. $2M/month would get a lot of takers if we can get 600kg worth of people, spaceship and consumables to orbit at $3000/kg including payload. A Progress at 2000-3000kg of payload lasts 2-3 months with three eaters.

Mars: $400B in exploration by 2030

If you just put NASA spending in line with US GDP growth and put 12 years of it to “Mars” you get about $400B.

Orbital labs: $10B/year by 2015

NASA can’t even come up with a business case to finish ISS. So far the only demand has come from Greg Olsen so he could take a tax writeoff on his vacation. Hmm, maybe it will be a conference destination.

Solar sats: $100B/year by 2020.

You have to beat the marginal cost of hydrocarbons to make money on this. Julian Simon’s Ultimate Resouce 2 indicates heavily against this. Methane hydrates, coal and uranium would have to be taxed to a standstill (which is not impossible) for this to be this big. Space elevators flip it.

Space elevator: $2B/year by 2021

If it works much bigger. It will probably be bigger than solar sats or asteroid mining. Without competition, almost all profits from solar sats and asteroid mining will accrue to the elevator owner.

Asteroid mining: $10B/year by 2030

The space access and demand curve math does not really work except for local consumption in space. But it would be a great place to colonize along with the Moon and Mars.

Moon: $104B in exploration by 2018, $250B in helium mining by 2050

The exploration comes from extrapolating the NASA budget: good bet; the He3 requires us to run out of uranium or patience for it. Not likely.

Microsats: $1.5B/year by 2018

Likely an underestimate as miniaturization, space access costs and dedicated launchers for microsats come into their own

Space Tourism: $1B/year by 2023

This will be bigger than hotels, which is not to say that it will be more than twice Futron’s prediction repeated here. (The factor of 2 selfishly comes from games. The transport to and from the hotel is more expensive than the hotel stay.)