“There is no indication of” does not mean that “it didn’t happen.” We just don’t know, though I suspect the FBI is finding out. But the epistomelogical problems with the reporting on this have been intense.
Category Archives: Technology and Society
The Martian
Here’s the first review of the full movie I’ve seen, over at Mashable.
I’m not a big Damon fan, because his politics annoy me, but it sounds like he did a good job.
Mark Whittington
Isn’t this cute? He still imagines we can (or should) do Apollo again.
[Update a while later]
Interesting timing on that Whittington piece. I just got off the phone with David Livingston, and one of the things I told his listeners was to stop trying to do Apollo again. Particularly because the Apollo they imagined, in which the nation was united behind a big goal in space, never happened.
Space Show Reminder
I’m gong to be on it tomorrow morning, at 9:30 AM PDT, to talk about the Kickstarter project and other current space topics.
[Update late afternoon]
Related: I have an update on the Kickstarter project, for those interested.
More Nutritional Junk Science
Oh, FFS:
After a week of eating 6,200 calories a day — with a diet rich in carbohydrates and fat that included foods like hamburgers, pizza and cookies — the men gained nearly 8 lbs. (3.5 kilograms), on average. All of this added weight was fat.
Emphasis mine. Hey, guys (and/or gals). There are these things called “controls.” They’re all the rage among real scientists, I hear.
Aerojet Rocketdyne ULA?
This seems like a really weird story:
Rocket engine maker Aerojet Rocketdyne has offered to buy launch services provider United Launch Alliance from Lockheed Martin and Boeing for at least $2 billion, an industry source told SpaceNews Sept. 8.
The unsolicited bid is the latest twist in what has been a topsy-turvy year for ULA, the primary U.S. government launch services provider.
First, this begs the question of whether the parents would be willing to sell. I’m not sure they’d want to give up control, given the strategic issues involved. An unfettered ULA could be almost as disruptive to their government business (particularly SLS) as SpaceX has been.
Of course, a purchase by AJR would probably pretty effectively fetter them in other ways. The only reason for the company to do this is pure desperation. If Tory gets his way, and they build Vulcan/ACES, and end Atlas, Delta and Centaur, and phase out use of the RL-10 as well (which they’ve been wanting to do for years), AJR is pretty much out of business. But it would be acquiring and preserving launch systems that are already known to be uncompetitive on the future market, and it still needs money to build the AR-1, the RD-180 replacement. Congress seems willing to throw them money for that. But the problem is, even if the taxpayer pays for development, the vehicle itself will remain uncompetitive against SpaceX, since even with the development subsidy, manufacturing costs will be higher than the current price for the RD-180 from Russia.
Which makes this story at Engadget pretty funny:
United Launch Alliance is a joint-venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing that launches spy and navigation satellites for the Pentagon and Air Force. Now, the firm is the subject of a $2 billion bid from engine business Aerojet Rocketdyne, a company that’s been snubbed in its attempts to power the Atlas V. If the government’s shadowy army of intelligence analysts and accountants approve the deal, it could create a new aerospace behemoth that could leave Elon Musk shivering out in the cold.
Say what? If I were Elon, I’d be cheering this on, for reasons stated above. What I’d be worried about would be a counteroffer from Bezos, because this deal leaves Blue Origin out in the cold, in terms of suddenly having to develop their own rocket for the BE-4. I’ll bet he’s thinking about it. Of course, as I said above, this all presumes that Boeing and Lockmart are willing to sell. It was reportedly an unsolicited bid.
@IanFichten 1. Buy and preserve uncompetitive obsolete rocket fleet. 2. ??? 3. PROFIT
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) September 9, 2015
[Update a few minutes later]
Yes, as noted in comments, it’s a third higher than their market cap. And it’s just an opening bid, no way they’d get it for that price. It might be possible to do some kind of mezzanine M&A deal, but it sure looks like a bad bet to me.
[Mid-afternoon update]
If I'm the Air Force, no way in Hades am I approving this AJR/ULA merger. Hope Gen. Hyten and Deb James understand the consequences.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) September 9, 2015
DOD: Dept not yet notified of #Aerojet offer to buy #ULA. #Aerojet unresponsive to queries. Begs question of how serious this offer is.
— Amy Butler (@ABAviationWeek) September 9, 2015
SpaceX Return To Flight
Chris Bergin has an extensive story over at NASA Spaceflight.
It would be nice to see them get in four more flights this year, but it seems unlikely. In any event, if they start flying again in November, that would be a pretty fast recovery, in historical terms with other launch failures, particularly with a relatively new vehicle.
[Update a few minutes later]
And here’s a story about Lee Rosen’s announcement in Pasadena that Falcon Heavy will debut this spring.
[Updatea while later]
Bad second link. Fixed now, sorry.
Why We Can’t Go To Mars
Yet…
Stephen Fleming gave a talk on that subject at Dragoncon this weekend (I should go some time). I haven’t looked at them yet, but his slides are on line, and I suspect there’s some good input to the Kickstarter there.
[Update a few minutes later]
Still haven’t been through slides, but I’m amused to see that he stole my graphical book-cover them in the very first one.
[Reading through]
I’d note that in his slides on the “Martian Defense Grid,” someone on the Mars panel at the AIAA meeting last week called Mars our “Jamestown.” High casualties to initial pioneers.
[Update a few more minutes later]
I wish we could show those charts of the unknown shape of the health/gravity curves to Congress. It makes a powerful case for a gravity lab, but only to people who actually give a damn about Mars. Actually, someone should show them to Elon.
ULA’s Technology
I saw George Sowers and Bernard Kutter, from ULA, at the AIAA conference in Pasadena last week. Jon Goff has a summary/review of some of the papers they presented there.
These are key technologies for my Kickstarter project (and opening the solar system). It’s interesting to note that they think they are ready to build depots now — Congress can’t prevent it any more by cutting technology funding. I asked Bernard in his presentation if it was fair to say that ACES was basically a depot with a propulsion system. His answer: “Basically yes.” Also, what they are calling “distributed launch” is essentially a powerful refutation of the argument for the need of SLS. But they can’t say that explicitly. I asked Tory on Twitter if he could give me a ballpark price of a Vulcan/ACES flight. He demurred, but it’s a number I need to cost architectures.
The Politics Of Star Trek
When he told me he was doing this a few weeks ago, I was tempted to think that Tim Sandefur had too much time on his hands, but it’s actually an interesting essay.
[Saturday-morning update]
Megan Geuss binge watched the whole series in order for the first time. It’s an interesting take.
[Bumped]