…of the launch business.
SpaceX has gone through quite a learning process in the past decade, and now they’re poised to take over the industry.
Safe Is Not An Option
Jeff Foust has a review of the book (in the context of last week’s release of the 2013 ASAP report, which I’ve been meaning to comment on), over at The Space Review.
[Update a while later]
And of course the server at The Space Review would go down the day that he reviews my book. I must have crashed it with my link. 😉
Last Week’s Forgotten Anniversary
Jeff Foust has a round up of the scant commentary on the 10th anniversary of Bush’s VSE announcement, including a link to my USA Today piece.
And no, the problem with Constellation was not that it was underfunded. It simply cost more than the planned budgets. Mike hoped that once it was a fait accompli, he’d just get the extra money. It didn’t work out that well.
[Update in the afternoon]
I haven’t read it in detail, but Stephen C. Smith has a lengthy history.
SLS
NASA doesn’t plan to use it very much. This isn’t really news, but it’s nice to see them point out the implications:
Given the SLS Block 1 launch processing manifest (4-5 years with little to no activities), there is a potential of not having sufficiently trained personnel. Issue – Yellow (May require personnel with advanced skills not readily available).
As I write in the book, even ignoring the cost implications:
From a safety standpoint, it means that its operating tempo will be far too slow, and its flights too infrequent, to safely and reliably operate the system. The launch crews will be sitting around for months with little to do, and by the time the next launch occurs they’ll have forgotten how to do it, if they haven’t left from sheer boredom to seek another job.
What a mess.
The Case Of The Missing Heat
Judith Curry does some detective work:
“You can’t keep piling up warm water in the western Pacific,” Trenberth says. “At some point, the water will get so high that it just sloshes back.” And when that happens, if scientists are on the right track, the missing heat will reappear and temperatures will spike once again.
JC comment: Well that is an interesting ‘forecast.’ If this is natural internal variability, e.g. the stadium wave (which includes the PDO), then you would expect warming to resume at some point (I’ve argued this might be in the 2030′s). This would make the hiatus 30+ years (similar in length to the pevious hiatus from 1940 to 1975). This is long enough to invalidate the utility of the current climate models for projecting future climate change.
And about the missing heat reappearing, well stay tuned for my next post on ocean heat content.
We will.
The “L” Word
How the left stole the word “liberal” a century ago. We need to take it back. I refuse to call them that.
Rosetta
…has woken up:
SIGNAL RECEIVED #AOS European Space Agency has reestablished contact with @ESA_Rosetta 807 million km from Earth #Rosetta
— ESA Operations (@esaoperations) January 20, 2014
Congratulations to ESA. I think people were getting nervous in mission control.
The Invisible Judith Curry
Apparently, she doesn’t fit the narrative.
[Update a while later]
Gee, maybe global warming isn’t worth doing anything about.
Yeah, may be.
[Update a few minutes later]
Curry responds to Michael Mann’s accusation that she is “anti-science.”
[Update a couple minutes later]
Has the sun gone to sleep?
Who cares? After all, all these genius climate scientists have been telling us the sun doesn’t affect the climate.
[Monday-morning update]
More thoughts on the invisible Judith Curry from Donna LaFramboise.
[Bumped]
The Democrats’ War On The Young
The young are finally starting to get unhappy about it.
The Republicans should hammer on this the same way the Dems lied about the fake “war on women.”
Science Is Broken
Despite the fact that it’s at Cracked, this is a very good article. Note in particular the thing about many scientists not actually understanding statistics, which is particularly a problem with climate science. It has a good bottom line:
Just to be clear: It’s not that you should suddenly stop trusting science in general — without science it would be impossible to distinguish charlatans from people who have actual wizard powers. But there’s a big difference between accepting scientific consensus and just blindly believing everything said by a guy in a white lab coat.
It’s also important to avoid falling into an overhyped misleading “consensus.”