The Private Road To Mars

Jeff Foust has a roundup of the current news.

As I write in the book, I think that this is by far the most likely means that anyone will get to Mars:

Unfortunately, when it comes to space, Congress has been pretty much indifferent to missions, or mission success, or “getting the job done.” Its focus remains on “safety,” and in this regard, price is no object. In fact, if one really believes that the reason for Ares/Orion was safety, and the program was expected to cost several tens of billions, and it would fly (perhaps) a dozen astronauts per year, then rather than the suggested value of fifty million dollars for the life of an astronaut, NASA was implicitly pricing an astronaut’s life to be in the range of a billion dollars.

As another example, if it were really important to get someone to Mars, we’d be considering one-way trips, which cost much less, and for which there would be no shortage of volunteers.18 It wouldn’t have to be a suicide mission—one could take along equipment to grow food, and live off the land. But it would be very high risk, and perhaps as high or higher than the early American settlements, such as Roanoke and Jamestown. But one never hears serious discussion of such issues, at least in the halls of Congress, which is a good indication that we are not serious about exploring, developing, or settling space, and any pretense at seriousness ends once the sole-source cost-plus contracts have been awarded to the favored contractors of the big rockets.

For these reasons, I personally think it unlikely that the federal government will be sending humans anywhere beyond LEO any time soon. But I do think that there is a reasonable prospect for private actors to do so — Elon Musk has stated multiple times that this is the goal of SpaceX, and why he founded the company. In fact, he recently announced his plans to send 80,000 people to Mars to establish a settlement, within a couple decades, at a cost of half a million per ticket.

And I think that would be the best way to do it. Given that there is no political pressure for sustainable operations or settlement, it would be a mistake to count on the government doing it — it would just be a Mars version of Apollo, with little to show for it ultimately.

A Perl Mystery

I’m trying to write a script to consolidate my book index, and I’ve run into a problem that’s driving me nuts. Can anyone see what’s going on here?

Here’s the relevant code:

if ($pagenumber) { #6
$numbers = $_;
$i = 0;

foreach (@numberarray) {
$numberarray[$i] = “”;
$i = $i + 1;
} # End foreach
$i = 0;

foreach (@sorted_numbers) {
$sorted_numbers[$i] = “”;
$i = $i + 1;
} # End foreach
$i = 0;

print $DEBUG2 “\$numbers is $numbers before entering while.\n”;

while ($numbers =~ /(\d+)(.*)/) {
print $DEBUG2 “\$1 is |$1|, \$pagenumber is |$pagenumber|.\n”;
if (!($1 eq $pagenumber)) {
$numberarray[$i] = $1;
$i = $i + 1;
} # End if
print $DEBUG2 “In while loop, \$numberarray[$i] is $numberarray[$i].\n”;
$numbers = $2;
print $DEBUG2 “Point 10: \$numbers is $numbers, \$i is |$i|.\n”;
} # End while
$numberarray[$i] = $pagenumber;
print $DEBUG2 “After while loop, \$numberarray[$i] is |$numberarray[$i]|, \$sorted_numbers[$i] is |$sorted_numbers[$i]|\n”;
@sorted_numbers = sort { $a <=> $b } @numberarray;
@numberarray = @sorted_numbers;
print $DEBUG2 “After sort, \$sorted_numbers[$i] is |$sorted_numbers[$i]|.\n”;

print $DEBUG2 “After sort \@numberarray is @numberarray, \$numberarray[$i] is $numberarray[$i].\n”;
$i = 0;
print $DEBUG2 “About to enter foreach (\@sorted_numbers).\n”;
$next = $i + 1; #Just for diagnostics
print $DEBUG2 “Before foreach, \$totalname is |$totalname|, \$numberarray[$i] is |$numberarray[$next]|, \$numberarray[$next] is |$numberarray[$i+1]|.\n”;
foreach (@numberarray) {
print $DEBUG2 “Got inside the loop.\n”;
print $DEBUG2 “**\$totalname is $totalname for \$i = $i.\n”;
$totalname = $totalname . ” ” . “$numberarray[$i],”;
$i = $i + 1;
}
print $DEBUG2 “Before chop condition, \$totalname is $totalname.\n”;
if ($totalname =~ /.*\,$/) {chop $totalname}
print $DEBUG2 “After chop condition, \$totalname is $totalname.\n”;

And here’s the debug output, for two different cases. One works, the other doesn’t and I can’t figure out what’s happening, but whatever it is, it seems to be happening in the sort. They should both give similar output — the name and a single page number, but as you can see, they don’t.

CASE 1

$numbers is Michael Adams 19, before entering while.
$1 is |19|, $pagenumber is |19|.
In while loop, $numberarray[0] is .
Point 10: $numbers is ,, $i is |0|.
After while loop, $numberarray[0] is |19|, $sorted_numbers[0] is ||
$sorted_numbers[0] is |19|.
after exiting @numberarray is 19, $numberarray[0] is 19.
About to enter foreach (@sorted_numbers).
Before foreach, $totalname is |Adams, Michael|, $numberarray[0] is ||, $numberarray[1] is ||.
Got inside the loop.
**$totalname is Adams, Michael for $i = 0.
Before chop condition, $totalname is Adams, Michael 19,.
After chop condition, $totalname is Adams, Michael 19.

CASE 2

$numbers is Bill Anders 26, before entering while.
$1 is |26|, $pagenumber is |26|.
In while loop, $numberarray[0] is .
Point 10: $numbers is ,, $i is |0|.
After while loop, $numberarray[0] is |26|, $sorted_numbers[0] is ||
$sorted_numbers[0] is ||.
after exiting @numberarray is 26, $numberarray[0] is .
About to enter foreach (@sorted_numbers).
Before foreach, $totalname is |Anders, Bill|, $numberarray[0] is ||, $numberarray[1] is ||.
Got inside the loop.
**$totalname is Anders, Bill for $i = 0.
Got inside the loop.
**$totalname is Anders, Bill , for $i = 1.
Got inside the loop.
**$totalname is Anders, Bill , , for $i = 2.
Before chop condition, $totalname is Anders, Bill , , 26,.
After chop condition, $totalname is Anders, Bill , , 26.

Things To Make You Feel Old

What’s funny about this is that most of them don’t have that effect at all on me, or at least not in the intended sense. They only make me feel old in the sense that many of them are and always have been irrelevant to my life, and many are in fact completely unknown to me. They’re just a bunch of things to make a young person feel old. You’d need a much different set of things to make me feel old.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!