The one in Georgia. Michael Totten reports an interesting press briefing.
And apparently, some people aren’t very happy about his reporting.
Batten Down The Hatches In Creole Country
Gustav is looking like it’s going to be bad news for the upper Gulf Coast:
As long as Gustav is over water, it will intensify. Gustav is currently under moderate wind shear (15 knots) . This shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range (0-15 knots) for the remainder of the week. Gustav is over the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic. Given these two factors, intensification is likely whenever the storm is over water, at least 50 miles from land. Expect the high mountains of Hispaniola to take a toll on Gustav. Recall in 2006 that Hurricane Ernesto hit the southwest tip of Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Haiti’s mountains knocked Ernesto down to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, which decreased further to 40 mph when the storm crossed over into Cuba. Expect at least a 25 mph decrease in Gustav’s winds by Wednesday, after it encounters Haiti. Further weakening is likely if the storm passes close to or over Cuba. By Wednesday, Gustav will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm’s heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Gustav is likely to intensify into a major Category 3 or higher storm. I give a 60% chance that Gustav will cause significant disruption to the oil and gas industry in the Gulf.
This will roil the energy markets (it may be doing so already). It may also be a test, and an opportunity, for Governor Jindal to show that the people of Louisiana were wise to replace his predecessor with him after her Katrina fiasco, which was largely overlooked by the media in their lust to bash George Bush.
The Problem With ITAR
There’s little new in this piece at the Economist to people who have been following the issue. Well, there is one thing: some signs that the people who have been destroying the industry with this foolish policy may be starting to pay attention.
A Story About Joe Biden
…that I hadn’t heard:
At the Tuesday-morning meeting with committee staffers, Biden launches into a stream-of-consciousness monologue about what his committee should be doing, before he finally admits the obvious: “I’m groping here.” Then he hits on an idea: America needs to show the Arab world that we’re not bent on its destruction. “Seems to me this would be a good time to send, no strings attached, a check for $200 million to Iran,” Biden declares. He surveys the table with raised eyebrows, a How do ya like that? look on his face.
The staffers sit in silence. Finally somebody ventures a response: “I think they’d send it back.” Then another aide speaks up delicately: “The thing I would worry about is that it would almost look like a publicity stunt.” Still another reminds Biden that an Iranian delegation is in Moscow that very day to discuss a $300 million arms deal with Vladimir Putin that the United States has strongly condemned. But Joe Biden is barely listening anymore. He’s already moved on to something else.
Didn’t anyone point out to him that Iran is not part of the “Arab world”?
And we want to put this guy a heartbeat away from the presidency?
A Brief History
…and a depressing one, of the Vision for Space Exploration. There’s a piece missing in the chronology, though. “Safe, Simple, Soon” was not part of the original vision. That was a sales slogan that ATK came up with to promote their particular means of implementing it. As noted, though, it seems to be failing on all three counts.
Note the comment that PDR has slipped into next year.
[Update mid morning PDT]
More on the PDR slip. It’s all the way out to next spring.
How Big Is The Problem?
“…and what is the nature of it? An interesting post over at NASA Watch, but the comments are even more interesting. I have some thoughts, and they’re related to my earlier thoughts on systems engineering, but I’m curious to see what commenters here think.
Gustav Update
The good news (at least for Floridians, who are still recovering from Fay): it now looks like it’s going to stay south of Cuba, and unlikely to hit the peninsula (at least soon).
The bad news (particularly for Jamaica and points west): it’s going to stay south of Cuba, and given the upper level winds (i.e., not much shear) it’s likely to become the season’s first major hurricane in a very few days. Look out, Yucatan and/or the Gulf…
Being Back In LaLa Land
…I really appreciate reading about the seven most retardedmentally-challenged ways that celebrities attempt to go green.
These were all funny at the time, but it’s nice to see a well-annotated compendium.
Feel The Love
The healing continues, as the convention starts:
A handful of Clinton supporters also dogged MSNBC “Hardball” host Chris Matthews, calling him a “sexist pig” and booing him as he walked onto the network’s set.
Was his leg tingling?
A group of about ten protestors joined the fray, holding up signs saying, “Clintons 4 McCain.”
One woman holding a sign said, “We’ve been big Hillary Clinton supporters, we’ve been told to get over it… We want our party back.”
Gonna be one heckuva show.
Remembering DC-X
Jeff Foust reports on last week’s anniversary get together.
When we finally start flying affordable space transports, future historians will look back in amazement that policy could have been so screwed up for so many decades, and so stubbornly unamenable to being fixed.