Clark Lindsey is leaving the conference before the end, but he has a lot more summaries of the sessions, many of which looked quite interesting. As before, just keep scrolling. I assume that some time next week, he’ll pull together the individual posts on a single page with permalinks.
Netroots And Space
Chris Bowers: on why “progressives” should support space programs. There’s a lot of typical mythology in the comments section about NASA and the military, and spin-off. We would have had PCs without Apollo, honest. We needed microchips for the missiles, which was at least as big a driver.
The APS Plot Thickens
The heretic Lord Monckton has a request today of the president of the American Physical Society:
The paper was duly published, immediately after a paper by other authors setting out the IPCC’s viewpoint. Some days later, however, without my knowledge or consent, the following appeared, in red, above the text of my paper as published on the website
of Physics and Society:“The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review. Its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article’s conclusions.”
This seems discourteous. I had been invited to submit the paper; I had submitted it; an eminent Professor of Physics had then scientifically reviewed it in meticulous detail; I had revised it at all points requested, and in the manner requested; the editors had accepted and published the reviewed and revised draft (some 3000 words longer than the original) and I had expended considerable labor, without having been offered or having requested any honorarium.
Please either remove the offending red-flag text at once or let me have the name and qualifications of the member of the Council or advisor to it who considered my paper before the Council ordered the offending text to be posted above my paper; a copy of this rapporteur’s findings and ratio decidendi; the date of the Council meeting at which the findings were presented; a copy of the minutes of the discussion; and a copy of the text of the Council’s decision, together with the names of those present at the meeting. If the Council has not scientifically evaluated or formally considered my paper, may I ask with what credible scientific justification, and on whose authority, the offending text asserts primo, that the paper had not been scientifically reviewed when it had; secundo, that its conclusions disagree with what is said (on no evidence) to be the “overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community”; and, tertio, that “The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article’s conclusions”? Which of my conclusions does the Council disagree with, and on what scientific grounds (if any)?
It will be interesting to see the response.
Constructing Sovereignty
…on the high seas. Though he doesn’t discuss it explicitly, Chris Borgen makes another case for why we need to get off the planet.
Panacea
One of the more annoying things that I find in commentary on space policy is the assumption that there is One True Way to get off the planet, and that working on anything else (particularly chemical rockets) is a waste of time and money. Often it’s space elevators, but here’s another case in point: an Orion fan (the original Orion, not the current Apollo crew module on steroids):
Nuclear power is still the only thing that’s going to allow us to get large amounts of mass into Earth orbit and beyond. Nothing else has enough specific impulse to do the job.
While nuclear-pulse propulsion may be an interesting technology for in-space transportation, where the radiation level is pretty high to start with, it was never going to be used for earth-to-orbit transportation. One does not have to be a luddite to believe this. I’m all in favor of getting access to orbit as low cost as possible, as soon as possible, but I think that the notion of using Orion for this is nuts (and not just for the radiation and atmospheric contamination issues–consider the EMP…). I highly respect Professor Dyson and Jerry Pournelle as well, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some major technical issues in getting such a system practical and operational. If such a system is ever built and tested, it will be built and tested in space, after we’ve come up with other ways of getting large amounts of mass into orbit, affordably. And I’m quite confident that if and when we do this, it will (at least initially) be with chemical rockets.
Part of the misunderstanding is revealed in the second sentence. The assumption is made that the reason costs of getting into space are high is due to performance, and particularly a specific performance parameter–specific impulse. For those unaware, this is basically a measure of a rocket’s fuel economy. The higher the Isp, the less propellant is required to provide a given amount of thrust over a given time period.
But there is no equation in vehicle design or operations that correlates cost with Isp. If Isp were the problem, one would expect propellant costs to be a high percentage of launch costs. But they’re not. Typically, propellant costs are on the order of a percent of the total launch costs. Yes, requiring fewer pounds of propellant means that the vehicle can be smaller, which reduces manufacturing and operations costs, but it still doesn’t account for the high costs.
Chemical rockets are perfectly adequate for affordable launch–their specific impulse is not a problem. As an example of why there’s a lot more to rocket science than Isp, consider that some of the more promising concepts (LOX/hydrocarbon) actually have lower specific impulse than so-called “high performance” propellants (LOX/LH2). Why? Because liquid hydrogen is so fluffy (the opposite of “dense”) that the tank sizes get large, increasing vehicle dry mass and atmospheric drag. For instance, the Shuttle external tank carries six pounds of LOX for each pound of hydrogen, but the LOX is all carried in a little tank at the top, and most of the ET that you see contains liquid hydrogen.
As I’ve noted many times before, there are two key elements to affordable launch using chemical rockets. Fly a lot, and don’t throw the vehicle away. Despite the mythology about the Shuttle, we’ve never actually done this in a program. It seems unlikely that NASA ever will, but fortunately, private enterprise is finally stepping up to the plate.
The End Of The World
Ron Bailey reports.
Well, OK, it’s just a conference on the subject. Which isn’t as interesting, but a lot less scary.
[Saturday morning update]
We have met the enemy, and he is us:
“All of the biggest risks, the existential risks are seen to be anthropogenic, that is, they originate from human beings.”
All the more reason to get some eggs into baskets other than this one. Also, the rise (again) of the neo-Malthusians. It’s hard to keep them down for long, even though so far, they’ve predicted about five out of the last zero world overpopulation crises.
NewSpace 2008 Blogging
It looks like Clark Lindsey now has an internet connection, and he’s got a lot of posts up with descriptions of the sessions yesterday and today. There are permalinks, but a bunch of them, so for now, just keep scrolling.
So far, I don’t see a lot of news coming out of the conference, other than the CATS Coalition announcement.
Who Does He Think He Is?
Charles Krauthammer, on Senator Obama’s overinflated self regard:
Who is Obama representing? And what exactly has he done in his lifetime to merit appropriating the Brandenburg Gate as a campaign prop? What was his role in the fight against communism, the liberation of Eastern Europe, the creation of what George Bush 41 — who presided over the fall of the Berlin Wall but modestly declined to go there for a victory lap — called “a Europe whole and free”?
Does Obama not see the incongruity? It’s as if a German pol took a campaign trip to America and demanded the Statue of Liberty as a venue for a campaign speech. (The Germans have now gently nudged Obama into looking at other venues.)
Americans are beginning to notice Obama’s elevated opinion of himself. There’s nothing new about narcissism in politics. Every senator looks in the mirror and sees a president. Nonetheless, has there ever been a presidential nominee with a wider gap between his estimation of himself and the sum total of his lifetime achievements?
Obama is a three-year senator without a single important legislative achievement to his name, a former Illinois state senator who voted “present” nearly 130 times. As president of the Harvard Law Review, as law professor and as legislator, has he ever produced a single notable piece of scholarship? Written a single memorable article? His most memorable work I a biography of his favorite subject: himself.
It is a subject upon which he can dilate effortlessly. In his victory speech upon winning the nomination, Obama declared it a great turning point in history — “generations from now we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment” — when, among other wonders, “the rise of the oceans began to slow.” As economist Irwin Stelzer noted in his London Daily Telegraph column, “Moses made the waters recede, but he had help.” Obama apparently works alone.
I suspect that the American people are going to get pretty tired of this as it goes on for another three months, and not be looking forward to four years of it.
Don’t You Just Hate It
…when your dad robs the pizza parlor where you work?
Is John McCain A Complete Economic Idiot?
Sometimes it seems like it:
In front of a roomful of 500 General Motors employees — of all places — John McCain paraded his radical Green credentials this morning. McCain embraced California’s lawsuit against the EPA demanding that states be allowed to set their own auto mileage standards.
“I guess at the end of the day, I support the states being able to do that,” he said at the town hall meeting at GM’s Technical Center in Warren, Mich.
California’s policy is strongly opposed by the auto industry because of the nightmare patchwork of regulatory standards such a proposal would set. The industry prefers national standards — a position that McCain had supported until this morning. McCain’s flip-flop on the issue (assuming he meant what he said, and his campaign doesn’t quickly move to correct the gaffe) would put him at odds with the Bush administration and longstanding Republican policy.
No way he has a prayer of winning Michigan (and probably not Ohio, either) if he persists in this stupidity. And it’s not going to give him California, either.