Several years ago (more than I care to think about) we put up a new trellis, and planted a bougainvillea at the entrance to our back yard in southern California. The hope was that the plant would grow to fill in the trellis, providing a beautiful hedge for privacy. Though one of the features of an established bougainvillea is low watering needs, we at first watered it diligently to establish the roots and spur its growth. But it grew slowly, sending out a few tendrils that I attached strategically around the trellis in the hope that it would fill in smoothly and quickly. It took two or three years before it finally blocked the view through the fencing. Now, over a decade later, it grows so vigorously that it has to be trimmed regularly, lest it project thorny branches out into the path where people walk. Despite its slow start, it has a thick trunk, and massive root system, that provides structure and nourishment for now-rapid and unstoppable growth.
It’s a truism in technological progress that we are always overoptimistic in the short term. The corollary is that we tend to be pessimistic in the longer term. Both of these effects are a result of the fact that we tend to think linearly, while life, and growth happen more exponentially–very slow at first, and then growing explosively as they climb the curve.
So Jon and Clark shouldn’t be discouraged at the frustratingly slow progress so far in suborbital activities, and Clark should and will (barring some miracle out of Armadillo or someone this summer) buy Dwayne Day his Italian dinner with cheer and good grace, and make another bet. It’s tragic, of course, that some of those on Jon’s list will not live to see the fruit of their labors, who might have had we been able to make better progress. But we can’t let that discourage us.
We have just finally, after delays caused much more by false perceptions than technological ability, gotten the plants in the ground, and the irrigation is on them, in the form of ongoing funding. Of course, they’re experimental hybrid plants, so it’s hard to know their growth rate ahead of time, or which of them will survive the soil or sun of their location. But over time, some will succeed, and grow, slowly at first, but eventually faster, until they are thriving at such a rate that we will marvel at all the people who said that the soil was barren, and that they would never flower, let alone fruit. And we will marvel from far above them, from the top of our garden that reaches up into the sky, and beyond.
. Well, at least they won’t be likely to compound the cinematic crime by including OJ, this time.