No Peak Oil?

If this is true, it’s a huge story. It certainly seems plausible. I’ve always claimed that oil reserves are driven much more by technology advances than by consumption rate:

n the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

It was not until 2007, when EOG Resources of Texas started a frenzy when they drilled a single well in Parshal N.D. that is expected to yield 700,000 barrels of oil that real excitement and money started to flow in North Dakota. Marathon Oil is investing $1.5 billion and drilling 300 new wells in what is expected to be one of the greatest booms in Oil discovery since Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938.

It’s also a story that will enrage those who want us to tighten up our hair shirts.

XCOR Presentation

Dan DeLong starts off by telling Paul Breed that they learned a long time ago at XCOR that green is bad, stop right now.

This talk is more than just Lynx, they’ll be talking about the other things they’re working on as well. Can’t talk about the Rocket Racer, because Rocket Racing League controls information on that. The piston pump is working well on it, though, and it’s the same pump that will be used on the Lynx, for both fuel and LOX.

There is no more Xerus. The concept has been changing, business model changing, aero changing, and they decided that they have a new stable configuration that they can give a name to. That is Lynx.

They’re having trouble with the computer display. Making jokes about Microsoft, and saying that their flight software won’t be windows. Dan talking about conversation he had night before with Russ Blink of Armadillo, with Russ saying that he’d rather fly a rocket controlled by a computer than one controlled by a human. Dan responded that while it made sense to do a vertical vehicle with computers, but it didn’t seem that good to do it with software based on a package called “Doom.”

Showing a flow chart of a meat hunt, with overanalysis. Their emphasis is analyze a little, and test a lot.

Showing various past projects–NRO thruster, DARPA LOX pump, methane engine.

Showing video of putting bomb inside of a methane engine to test combustion stability. Four bomb tests, all successful.

Talking about the valves that they’ve developed, because none were available that met their needs. Also doing own composites for the Lynx. They’ve come up with a glass-fibre and teflon resin, neither of which will react with oxygen.

Not talking about Lynx. Sunk cost so far $7m, with an estimate of $9M to complete. Showing a video of 50-lbf attitude control thruster, running nitrous/ethane, that will sit in the strakes. This video wasn’t shown at the press conference.

Mark II will have hard points on outside. Will carry upper stage dorsally, that can put 10-20 kg payload into LEO. Purpose of the contract is not to help build vehicle. It’s for analysis, demonstration and knowledge sharing of its responsive features. Air Force is looking for Operationally Responsive Space (ORS). Air Force has space they need the “OR.” XCOR has the “OR” but not the “S.” Everyone understand that you can’t be cheap at nine times per year, but because XCOR is commercial, they have to make it cheap, which happens by flying often. So Air Force gets the benefit.

Lynx requirements:

Supersonic
Two people
Fly under FAA-AST rules

Goal was to build smallest vehicle that met those requirements.

Showing video of firewall test stand, successive engine runs with increasing pauses, with minimum off time of two seconds. About a half second to start up.

Showing video from press conference now.

Fuel is carried in wing strakes, LOX in fuselage. About two gees at burnout, heading straight up at Mach 1. Mark II will be three gees. Landing speed about 95 knots, takeoff about twice that.

Unreasonable Rocket Update

Paul Breed is an entrant in the Lunar Landing Challenge. He didn’t make to last year’s attempt, but expects to do so this year.

They are literally doing everything in their garage. Last year, they built an engine and ran it and it was perfect. They built four more, and it didn’t work so well. Showing a film, taken on one Saturday..On the first burn, they saw a green flash, which meant a meltdown of the copper combustion chamber. It turned out that they used a different kind of solder. Then he showed a stability and control test vehicle that was neither controllable or stable. Then their four-quadrant vehicle turned out to be too complex, with too many valves.

This year, they’ve switched to a monoprop vehicle using peroxide, with sodium permanganate decomposition. New vehicle is spherical tank, using McMaster car parts. Will be tested next week. Doing testing of stability and control unit with a large RC helicopter, which they don’t have to go out to the rocket test site (four hours away) to test. Vehicle will be aluminum. Expect to static fire full vehicle in two to four weeks, with first flight test in eight weeks.

New Wyoming Space Company

Tim Bendel, of Frontier Astronautics, is giving a presentation on how to address the gap between the ability of garage-based startups and larger companies to raise money. Not very many angels with money who are interested in space who aren’t already doing it.

Giving a history of the Zeppelin. After the count lost his first ship, he threw in the towel, because he’s lost all his money, but a lot of Germans sent him money, and he ended up with more than he had started with. Are there space enthusiasts who could do the same thing?

Talking about Warren Buffett’s stock, and its high value that he refuses to split. Independent holding companies evolved by purchasing a few shares of Berkshire stock, and then issuing new, lower-priced stock based on that asset.

His proposal is to gather small investors for the holding company, put their money into escrow, and fund start-up space companies off the interest. Different “flavors” or classes of stock would be issued, with different Class A escrow accounts, which could be associated with specific start ups.

Unfortunately, most of the info is on his charts, which I can’t read because I’m all the way in the back (where the laptop power is), and too dense for me to quickly transcribe even if I could.

He claims that it avoids sunshine laws, according to SEC lawyers that they’ve talked to. The basic idea is to provide a means for small investors to invest in small companies, albeit indirectly.

Issues: Have to pay for licenses, need to be broker/dealer, etc., a lot of paperwork. Probably about a hundred thousand bucks to get started. Goal is to do it for profit, in addition to helping space industry. Makes money on trades, but could also use other investment tools, such as puts and calls.

Has a business process patent on it, needs about a quarter million to start up.

Hard for me to evaluate it, given my funky state of consciousness, and inability to look at the numbers. I’ll talk to TIm about it later.

Liberating The Press From Hillary

Kimberly Strassell writes that Snipergate is a proxy for all of Hillary!’s lies and crimes that the press refused to cover properly in the 90s:

The real beauty of Mrs. Clinton’s Tuzla torture is that it’s self-inflicted. Up to now, Team Clinton had done a surreal job of keeping the scandal genie in its bottle. Think about it: Most of 1990s politics was defined by the Clinton White House, which in turn was defined by the Clintons’ endless ethical firestorms. The American public remembers this, one reason why a majority consistently says in polls that Mrs. Clinton is “untrustworthy.” And yet even as the former First Lady has lobbed ethical accusations at Mr. Obama — slamming him for “plagiarizing” speeches, hitting him for his relationship with “slum landlord” Tony Rezko or the Reverend Jeremiah Wright — her own past has remained a no-go zone for most of the press and for her rival.

This is hangover from the remarkable job the Clintons did in painting themselves as the victims of the so-called “right-wing attack machine.” They, and their devotees, have carried that victim mentality into the present, and have made clear that anyone who revives the issues of billing records or cattle futures is little more than the second coming of Ken Starr. They’ve done such a remarkable job of portraying any investigation into their undeniable shenanigans as a “partisan” venture that even the press has looked away and whistled.

I think that as time goes on, and we get more distance from it, the Clinton administration is going to look an awful lot like the Harding administration, in more than one way.

[Update a few minutes later]

Peggy Noonan, Strassell’s Journal colleague, has further thoughts:

I think we’ve reached a signal point in the campaign. This is the point where, with Hillary Clinton, either you get it or you don’t. There’s no dodging now. You either understand the problem with her candidacy, or you don’t. You either understand who she is, or not. And if you don’t, after 16 years of watching Clintonian dramas, you probably never will.

What struck me as the best commentary on the Bosnia story came from a poster called GI Joe who wrote in to a news blog: “Actually Mrs. Clinton was too modest. I was there and saw it all. When Mrs. Clinton got off the plane the tarmac came under mortar and machine gun fire. I was blown off my tank and exposed to enemy fire. Mrs. Clinton without regard to her own safety dragged me to safety, jumped on the tank and opened fire, killing 50 of the enemy.” Soon a suicide bomber appeared, but Mrs. Clinton stopped the guards from opening fire. “She talked to the man in his own language and got him [to] surrender. She found that he had suffered terribly as a result of policies of George Bush. She defused the bomb vest herself.” Then she turned to his wounds. “She stopped my bleeding and saved my life. Chelsea donated the blood.”

Made me laugh. It was like the voice of the people answering back. This guy knows that what Mrs. Clinton said is sort of crazy. He seems to know her reputation for untruths. He seemed to be saying, “I get it.”

Well, some of us have gotten it for a long time. Glad to see that at least some of the country is finally coming to its senses.

“The Disgrace Of Liberalism”

Some thoughts:

It’s often overlooked — thanks in large part to the Clinton “legacy” — that such misbehavior is almost always accompanied by corruption in other spheres. Insistence by Clinton’s defenders that his various lady troubles were “personal matters” succeeded in obscuring the moral connection between Big Bill’s follies and the endless bribes, kickbacks, suicides, illegal mass firings, and vanishing files that made the “most ethical administration in history” so entertaining to watch.

So it needs restating as a simple truth that a man who cannot control his sexual impulses is unlikely to succeed in more complex matters. In little over a year, Spitzer threw away the goodwill engendered by his landslide victory through a series of petty conspiracies and dirty tricks, bringing New York state government to a standstill in the process. While McGreevey was a better governor than he’s ever likely to get credit for (he solved the longstanding auto-insurance “crisis” that made New Jersey a laughingstock for half a dozen previous administrations), his penchant for putting his muscle boys on the state payroll undercuts any other claims for his record. The same can be said for Paterson. Though, being both blind and black, he may likely survive, revelations concerning his practice of awarding jobs and positions don’t bode well for the future.

These men are clearly representative of the post-Clinton Democratic Party. They set out to follow in Bill’s footsteps, have ended up much the same as he did, and have dragged their party and political doctrine along with them. (At this point somebody will bring up the names Foley and Craig. But neither stood anywhere near the center of American conservatism in the way that the Northeastern governors do with liberalism as a matter of course. Foley and Craig were rotten apples. With the Democrats, it’s the whole barrel.)

That’s sure the way it seems lately. And it’s taking its toll on the superdelegates.

“The Disgrace Of Liberalism”

Some thoughts:

It’s often overlooked — thanks in large part to the Clinton “legacy” — that such misbehavior is almost always accompanied by corruption in other spheres. Insistence by Clinton’s defenders that his various lady troubles were “personal matters” succeeded in obscuring the moral connection between Big Bill’s follies and the endless bribes, kickbacks, suicides, illegal mass firings, and vanishing files that made the “most ethical administration in history” so entertaining to watch.

So it needs restating as a simple truth that a man who cannot control his sexual impulses is unlikely to succeed in more complex matters. In little over a year, Spitzer threw away the goodwill engendered by his landslide victory through a series of petty conspiracies and dirty tricks, bringing New York state government to a standstill in the process. While McGreevey was a better governor than he’s ever likely to get credit for (he solved the longstanding auto-insurance “crisis” that made New Jersey a laughingstock for half a dozen previous administrations), his penchant for putting his muscle boys on the state payroll undercuts any other claims for his record. The same can be said for Paterson. Though, being both blind and black, he may likely survive, revelations concerning his practice of awarding jobs and positions don’t bode well for the future.

These men are clearly representative of the post-Clinton Democratic Party. They set out to follow in Bill’s footsteps, have ended up much the same as he did, and have dragged their party and political doctrine along with them. (At this point somebody will bring up the names Foley and Craig. But neither stood anywhere near the center of American conservatism in the way that the Northeastern governors do with liberalism as a matter of course. Foley and Craig were rotten apples. With the Democrats, it’s the whole barrel.)

That’s sure the way it seems lately. And it’s taking its toll on the superdelegates.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!