Space

TIVO’d Live Blogging

This is what I would have live blogged at yesterday’s XCOR press conference if I’d had an Internet commercial.

———————————————————————-

Doug Graham gives an introduction. Leads off by introducing Esther Dyson.

Took it for granted that she would be going to the moon, but space was like a priesthood, for NASA and big companies, not for ordinary folk. If you wanted to go into space you went into industry and lost your entrepreneurial initiative, or you wrote science fiction (Pournelle). PCs have made computing cheaper by orders of magnitude. The Internet was developed by the government, but its potential didn’t explode until it was turned over to the commercial sector. In the software world, you can build a business by copying software, but you can steal XCOR’s plans, and not be an XCOR and not build a Lynx. Not qualified to judge the technology. But she can judge the customers, and the people and their approach. She’s investing in Jeff and the team that he surrounded himself with. Real-world company. Not making wild-eyed promises, but transparent and making promises they will be held accountable for.

Greason: Just notified that Air Force wants to continue to fund their SBIR, and the process would make parts of the vehicle public over time, so announcing now. Most people wouldn’t be able to tell the last few versions apart. Also wanted to let potential travelers know what else was out there. Airframe designed from scratch to be optimized for the engines. Fly from the ground out into space, see stars, earth curvature, earth below, experience weightlessness. Looking at different ways to package people in vehicle, and shifted from Xerus to Lynx about three years ago. Referring to Metacomp Technologies CFD support. Started with engines in 1999, because it was clear that this was the critical technology at the time for building these kinds of vehicles. High flight rate is critically important. Allows a much smaller vehicle, with single passenger, and still fly as many people with a smaller vehicle that flies less often. Regulatory regime is unique in the world. By requiring developers to release safety records, there wil be competitive pressure for safer vehicles. High flight rate, low cost propulsion systems will be able to offer prices at roughly half the price of competitors. Smallest vehicle that they can build–if they could figure out a way to fly half a passenger they would do that. Not that last step–just one more step on a roadmap they laid out years ago: low suborbital, high suborbital, orbital. Thinks that this business is important, and that demonstrating a vehicle like this can make money will bring new capital into the market.
rt
Rick Searfoss: Was convinced would never fly into space again after leaving NASA. After working with XCOR, became convinced that it was possible, except this time can take wife (if she wants to go). Showing video of virtual vehicle being rolled out of hangar, checking out engines on runway, lighting it up, and on its way. Similar to high-performance fighter aircraft. Flight test and ops will take place same place (initially) as Yeager’s first flight. All-liquid rocket propulsion technology. Using same approaches as X-15 and Shuttle–dead stick landing. Well proven and easy to do, except they have the ability for go-around, reducing risk. Absolutely enthralled with the prospect of flying Lynx through test phase to the point that they can safely fly the paying public. XCOR an impressive organization. Lots of people want to get into the game, but very few really have capability to make it happen–XCOR is one of those. Scalable, developable, vey amenable to flight-test regime. As a test pilot he loves it. Flight test isn’t about taking risk–it’s about mitigating and controlling them while expanding the performance envelope. Most impressive thing about space is the view (riding up front, next to piot). Weightless experience is more different than you can imagine, but still second place to the view. Excited about working with this technical team to make it a reality, and open up space to many people in the future.

LA Times: What is state of vehicle.

Vehicle is sufficiently designed that they can start to build.

Pressurized cockpit, suit?

Yes, pressurized cockpit with life support, but will have pressure suits for additional layer of safety. Searfoss: Developing suits with Orbital Outfitters, which will be lighter and more manageable to wear. Not pressurized, and can fly with faceplate open. Dyson: You get to wear a space suit, and keep it.

Will passengers need physicals?

Missed the response.

Can’t address price point, because they are not the retailers. “our price to them is sufficiently low that the can charge about half the competition.

How large is the market. Jeff know one knows for sure, but a lot of research has been done. Dyson: a lot of people with more money than time. They can’t do a safari in Africa, but can do this in a day.

some training needed for suit operations, but shouldn’t take more than a few days and doesn’t have to happen right next to the flight.

Is 200,000 feet high enough? “More than high enough to satisfy the people who haven’t flown at all. By the time that market is worked off, will have higher vehicles. Direct competitor is Scaled/SSCompany. Very different concepts. Doesn’t think that any one will be the way to go. Different vehicles for different experiences. They only have one passenger with a co-passenger experience. Theirs is direct from runway to space, with no mother ship.

Test flights first half of 2010.

Why not carried aloft, to shorten rocket burn, like SS2? Expect that there will be competition on cost, so rather than focus on how fast to get there, but how to design a system that’s cost effective to operate, but be able to compete as well. That led to the engineering choice of doing it in a single vehicle. Trade off is to have more advanced rocket propulsion, which is why there started there.

Why suborbital when the problem is orbital. Esther: likes speciation–going after a real market niche in the short term, with real technology that will continue to involve over time. It’s a good business case. Jeff looks forward to the day that he can announce an orbital system, and you’ll be able to see the heritage from what we’re doing today, and obvious that a step-wise approach is better than “hail Mary” to orbit.

Air Force contract more important psychologically than financially. Very validating to have them watching over shoulders and trusting them. Don’t have all the money yet, but don’t expect any problems based on current discussion with investors. Ride is about thirty minutes, with last twenty a glide home. Only difference between Lynx one and two (none external), but 2 will be full-performance version. Can fly one without waiting for ultimate perfect vehicle.

Is it high enough to be in space? Tee-shirt factor is an issue, but still a big market for early adopters. Not technically in space (50 miles, 100 km), and that will obviously be worth more, but they will get to that point. Price allows multiple flights. In terms of passenger sizing, Greason is the model (because he wants to fly, and because he’s 95th percentile).

Total burn time is about three minutes, weightless about a minute and a half.

Start with taxi tests, then runway hops, then fly arounds, then subsonic (thirty or forty), then carefully through transition, then take it to the limit. Fifty to seventy to a hundred flight tests.

What infrastructure required? Franchise to other places in the world? Do you expect Mojave to be upgraded to New Mexico class?

No infrastructure required except runways and air space. Doesn’t expect California taxpayers to build them new facilities. Expects to fly all over the world, because people want to operate from their own turf.

Do you need to be supersuper wealthy? Comparable to Everest operation. Had two teachers who bought flights on Zero Gee at 3500. Was it worth it? Absolutely, will share with students and remember forever. Greason: Of course price will come down. Aren’t we glad that people bought plasma teevees and cell phones so that now we can all afford them? Never be dirt cheap, but could come down to the price of a cruise.

2700-3000 lb class engines for engines, with three of them. Weight of vehicle commensurate with that thrust. One of differences between Mark 1 and Mark 2 will be leading edges on nose for entry, but it’s a lot easier than orbit. Peak temp about 1200. Will use commercial for of RP-2.

Not four flight a day per pilot, but perhaps two. Methane interested for upper stages, not for suborbital.

Nice to be first in the marketplace, but better to be right. Multiple parties will be entering this market, and that’s great.

How far off is orbital flight? Can it scale up?

Orbital flight is where we want to go. selected this approach because it fits it a roadmap that leads there. That doesn’t mean that the vehicle design itself will carry over. It’s the systems concepts that will.

Does the vehicle require a sophisticated flight director? Jeff: A very sophisticated one, and he’s standing right here (referring to Searfoss). Very simple flight profile required to military vehicle, but expect the vehicle to be flyable by a pilot without a lot of need for automated flight control. Just took a dig at Scaled: “not like we’re going to just light off a hybrid rocket motor and we’re off on Mr. Toad’s Wild Right. “Digital throttle–on or off.” Throttling adds complexity and failure modees, and isn’t necessary.

How to reassure customers or investors that a cataclysmic failure by them or a competitor won’t destroy the industry? ME-163 bad example, but understand that safety has to be high priority. Never find anything in advance, will test, and test, and test. Will have more flights on it than anyone has put on a rocket vehicle before they put passengers in it. In a lot of ways the traveling public are a lot more sophisticated than people judging from the outside. Esther: If it’s inevitable, delay it as long as possible, set expectations properly, and realize that part of the appeal is that it is real. People die climbing Everest, often. Don’t make light of it, but doesn’t have to be a major blow to the industry.

Question to Esther: How important beyond military contracts and private travel, how much business beyond does she need. Not expecting asteroid mining or Mars colonization, but she expects them to develop this spacecraft and its descendants, but wouldn’t be surprised to develop new generations of technology and become part of the establishment. Not a long-term prospect. They are disruptive because they’re small and quick. Generating reasonable returns from the POV of a VC.

Space

At The Conference

1 Comment

The trip was uneventful, except for an excruciatingly long and slow detour out in the desert in a long line of trucks and cars due to blocking off eastbound I-10 for and accident investigation about thirty miles west of Phoenix.

Obviously, I have an Intertube connection. I came in late due to the above, in the middle of a discussion of a tether system for earth-moon transport. I’m sitting next to Henry Cate, Jr. (who started the Carnival of Space series after last year’s conference) and am staring at the backs of Clark Lindsey’s and Jeff Foust’s heads.

Administrative, Space

So I Attended The Press Conference

3 Comments

Did I live blog it? Obviously not.

I couldn’t see paying fifty bucks for a slow wireless connection, which was what was on offer. If I have the energy later, I may post what I would have live blogged, had I had an Intertube connection. Still kind of beat from recent travails for now, though. I need to get some dinner, pack, and take it easy tonight, so I can get up early to drive to Phoenix in the morning for a mid-afternoon conference start.

Political Commentary

It’s Not Like This Is Anything New

OK, so Hillary dissed the military when she lied about being shot at. I’m sure that it was just a slip of the tongue–surely she didn’t mean to.

Well, actually, since she’s running for president, I am sure that she didn’t mean to. But it’s indicative of her cluelessness about the armed forces over which she viciously ambits to become Commander-In-Chief. When he came into office, her husband was similarly clueless. It took him a long time to learn to salute properly, and he never really got it down (though it should be noted that there is no requirement that the President salute to the troops–that was a tradition started by Ronald Reagan, and one that both Clintons no doubt wish that he hadn’t). But this goes beyond simply basic lack of understanding of how the military works. Underlying it is a contempt for the military, and authority itself, other than their own.

Consider this passage from Unlimited Access:

Another close source, this one in the Secret Service, told me that she had ordered her Secret Service protective detail to “stay the f–k away from me!” and to keep at least ten yards of distance between her and them at all times.

The Secret Service agent told me that it was much harder to protect her from a distance of ten yards, and she was told this, but she didn’t seem to care what the Secret Service said. He also told me that she had a clear dislike for the agents, bordering on hatred, in his opinion.

Along those same lines, another source told me that two Secret Service agents heard Hillary’s daughter, Chelsea, refer to them as “personal trained pigs” to some of her friends. When the friends were gone, the senior agent tried to scold Chelsea for such disrespect. He told her that he was willing to put his life on the line to save hers, and he believed that her father, the president, would be shocked if he heard what she had just said to her friends. Her response?

“I don’t think so. That’s what my parents call you.”

As is noted there, if true (and frankly, I certainly have no reason whatsoever to disbelieve it in light of their general history*), it makes sense, because Bill and Hillary were sixties campus radicals, and did indeed come from a culture that considered law enforcement officials “pigs.”

And we know, going all the way back to the first Clinton campaign that, no matter how he chose to spin it at the time or now, his letters about his draft deferment indicate that he did indeed “loathe” the military. There’s no reason to think that Hillary felt differently, then or now. And when you loathe something, you’re unlikely to invest much time in learning about it, or becoming familiar with it. The military culture is completely alien to this woman, and this incident is just one more bit of evidence for that.

And beyond that, even for someone unfamiliar with the military, it would seem obvious that when you tell a tale of running under fire on an air base where the people are dedicated to providing for your safety, that doesn’t reflect well on their performance. Obvious to anyone but Hillary Clinton. And she probably thought that showing her bravery under fire would be politically advantageous someone who probably knows nothing about the military other than action movies (many of which depict American troops as depraved) by her Hollywood pals.

But insulting the troops? Telling blatant and repeated lies? What does it matter, as long as she gets back into the White House? The hilarious thing is that it has blown back so badly on her.

The most brilliant woman in the world.

Right.

*Yes, before the trolls drop by and tell me that Aldridge’s book has been thoroughly discredited because of the story about Bill Clinton being sneaked out for trysts through a White House tunnel, I give that argument about as much weight as that OJ was innocent because Mark Furhman made some racist remarks–you don’t throw out an entire body of evidence because some of it has proven to be suspect.

And, of course, for those who are going to argue that I’m being unfair in ignoring Pastor Wright’s good works in condemning his lunatic remarks, I’ll just say that the two situations are not in any useful way equivalent, and if you’re too dim to understand why, I’m not going to waste time attempting to explain it to you.

Political Commentary

It’s Not Like This Is Anything New

OK, so Hillary dissed the military when she lied about being shot at. I’m sure that it was just a slip of the tongue–surely she didn’t mean to.

Well, actually, since she’s running for president, I am sure that she didn’t mean to. But it’s indicative of her cluelessness about the armed forces over which she viciously ambits to become Commander-In-Chief. When he came into office, her husband was similarly clueless. It took him a long time to learn to salute properly, and he never really got it down (though it should be noted that there is no requirement that the President salute to the troops–that was a tradition started by Ronald Reagan, and one that both Clintons no doubt wish that he hadn’t). But this goes beyond simply basic lack of understanding of how the military works. Underlying it is a contempt for the military, and authority itself, other than their own.

Consider this passage from Unlimited Access:

Another close source, this one in the Secret Service, told me that she had ordered her Secret Service protective detail to “stay the f–k away from me!” and to keep at least ten yards of distance between her and them at all times.

The Secret Service agent told me that it was much harder to protect her from a distance of ten yards, and she was told this, but she didn’t seem to care what the Secret Service said. He also told me that she had a clear dislike for the agents, bordering on hatred, in his opinion.

Along those same lines, another source told me that two Secret Service agents heard Hillary’s daughter, Chelsea, refer to them as “personal trained pigs” to some of her friends. When the friends were gone, the senior agent tried to scold Chelsea for such disrespect. He told her that he was willing to put his life on the line to save hers, and he believed that her father, the president, would be shocked if he heard what she had just said to her friends. Her response?

“I don’t think so. That’s what my parents call you.”

As is noted there, if true (and frankly, I certainly have no reason whatsoever to disbelieve it in light of their general history*), it makes sense, because Bill and Hillary were sixties campus radicals, and did indeed come from a culture that considered law enforcement officials “pigs.”

And we know, going all the way back to the first Clinton campaign that, no matter how he chose to spin it at the time or now, his letters about his draft deferment indicate that he did indeed “loathe” the military. There’s no reason to think that Hillary felt differently, then or now. And when you loathe something, you’re unlikely to invest much time in learning about it, or becoming familiar with it. The military culture is completely alien to this woman, and this incident is just one more bit of evidence for that.

And beyond that, even for someone unfamiliar with the military, it would seem obvious that when you tell a tale of running under fire on an air base where the people are dedicated to providing for your safety, that doesn’t reflect well on their performance. Obvious to anyone but Hillary Clinton. And she probably thought that showing her bravery under fire would be politically advantageous someone who probably knows nothing about the military other than action movies (many of which depict American troops as depraved) by her Hollywood pals.

But insulting the troops? Telling blatant and repeated lies? What does it matter, as long as she gets back into the White House? The hilarious thing is that it has blown back so badly on her.

The most brilliant woman in the world.

Right.

*Yes, before the trolls drop by and tell me that Aldridge’s book has been thoroughly discredited because of the story about Bill Clinton being sneaked out for trysts through a White House tunnel, I give that argument about as much weight as that OJ was innocent because Mark Furhman made some racist remarks–you don’t throw out an entire body of evidence because some of it has proven to be suspect.

And, of course, for those who are going to argue that I’m being unfair in ignoring Pastor Wright’s good works in condemning his lunatic remarks, I’ll just say that the two situations are not in any useful way equivalent, and if you’re too dim to understand why, I’m not going to waste time attempting to explain it to you.

Political Commentary

It’s Not Like This Is Anything New

14 Comments

OK, so Hillary dissed the military when she lied about being shot at. I’m sure that it was just a slip of the tongue–surely she didn’t mean to.

Well, actually, since she’s running for president, I am sure that she didn’t mean to. But it’s indicative of her cluelessness about the armed forces over which she viciously ambits to become Commander-In-Chief. When he came into office, her husband was similarly clueless. It took him a long time to learn to salute properly, and he never really got it down (though it should be noted that there is no requirement that the President salute to the troops–that was a tradition started by Ronald Reagan, and one that both Clintons no doubt wish that he hadn’t). But this goes beyond simply basic lack of understanding of how the military works. Underlying it is a contempt for the military, and authority itself, other than their own.

Consider this passage from Unlimited Access:

Another close source, this one in the Secret Service, told me that she had ordered her Secret Service protective detail to “stay the f–k away from me!” and to keep at least ten yards of distance between her and them at all times.

The Secret Service agent told me that it was much harder to protect her from a distance of ten yards, and she was told this, but she didn’t seem to care what the Secret Service said. He also told me that she had a clear dislike for the agents, bordering on hatred, in his opinion.

Along those same lines, another source told me that two Secret Service agents heard Hillary’s daughter, Chelsea, refer to them as “personal trained pigs” to some of her friends. When the friends were gone, the senior agent tried to scold Chelsea for such disrespect. He told her that he was willing to put his life on the line to save hers, and he believed that her father, the president, would be shocked if he heard what she had just said to her friends. Her response?

“I don’t think so. That’s what my parents call you.”

As is noted there, if true (and frankly, I certainly have no reason whatsoever to disbelieve it in light of their general history*), it makes sense, because Bill and Hillary were sixties campus radicals, and did indeed come from a culture that considered law enforcement officials “pigs.”

And we know, going all the way back to the first Clinton campaign that, no matter how he chose to spin it at the time or now, his letters about his draft deferment indicate that he did indeed “loathe” the military. There’s no reason to think that Hillary felt differently, then or now. And when you loathe something, you’re unlikely to invest much time in learning about it, or becoming familiar with it. The military culture is completely alien to this woman, and this incident is just one more bit of evidence for that.

And beyond that, even for someone unfamiliar with the military, it would seem obvious that when you tell a tale of running under fire on an air base where the people are dedicated to providing for your safety, that doesn’t reflect well on their performance. Obvious to anyone but Hillary Clinton. And she probably thought that showing her bravery under fire would be politically advantageous someone who probably knows nothing about the military other than action movies (many of which depict American troops as depraved) by her Hollywood pals.

But insulting the troops? Telling blatant and repeated lies? What does it matter, as long as she gets back into the White House? The hilarious thing is that it has blown back so badly on her.

The most brilliant woman in the world.

Right.

*Yes, before the trolls drop by and tell me that Aldridge’s book has been thoroughly discredited because of the story about Bill Clinton being sneaked out for trysts through a White House tunnel, I give that argument about as much weight as that OJ was innocent because Mark Furhman made some racist remarks–you don’t throw out an entire body of evidence because some of it has proven to be suspect.

And, of course, for those who are going to argue that I’m being unfair in ignoring Pastor Wright’s good works in condemning his lunatic remarks, I’ll just say that the two situations are not in any useful way equivalent, and if you’re too dim to understand why, I’m not going to waste time attempting to explain it to you.

Administrative

Crashing

7 Comments

I’m in California, but I essentially have had no sleep for over forty hours. Explanation on the morrow, but it primary involves a combination of being sick and a cross-country plane trip. I’m pretty sure I’ll sleep tonight…

[Update in the early morning]

Well, I was right. I finally did sleep. Which was a relief, because I hadn’t been able to for a long time, and not been able to sleep well for a longer time. Ever since I came down with this thing (Thursday night, when I woke up in the wee hours shivering almost uncontrollably, and then shifting over to sheet-drenching sweats) I’d only had one night where I had uninterrupted sleep of more than a couple hours. On Sunday night, I woke up about 3 AM, and never got back to sleep (for no obvious reason–while my temperature was still wandering around, I didn’t feel that bad).

On Monday I had to get ready for the trip, and I wasn’t really tired, anyway. On Monday night, I went to bed in anticipation of the morning flight to LA, and expected to sleep well, given how little I’d had the previous night.

Wrong. I went to bed at ten, and lay there. And lay there, and eventually ended up laying there, not sleeping (and mind racing with various topics), until I eventually got up at 5 AM (the alarm had been set for 6), and checked email and took care of some last-minute packing. At this point I had been awake about twenty-six hours.

At 7:30 Patricia dropped me at the Boca station to take the Tri-Rail to the Fort Lauderdale airport. It was hot on the train, and I took off the jacket that I was wearing in anticipation of the much cooler weather in California. And left it on the train.

Got on the plane. I had a window seat in the emergency row, and was fortunate to have an empty seat next to me in an almost full plane, but the armrest wouldn’t lift (though the seat did recline), so I had no option than to sit upright, which is never conducive to sleep for me. I envy people who can sleep on a plane. In addition, while it normally doesn’t both me, windows tend to be colder, and this one had a very cold wall and floor (I took my shoes off for comfort, but eventually put them back on because my feet were so cold, except that the soles of the tennis shoes were almost frozen, so it took a while to warm them back up). Short version–no way was I going to sleep on the airplane, for a 5+ hour flight.

Got into LAX at noon, rented a car, checked into motel (not a bad room for the price, other than the neighborhood–it’s in east Gardena, which is almost the same as west Compton…). But I didn’t want to go to bed yet, because I wanted to get on a California schedule, and if I’d crashed then, I’d have really screwed things up. In addition, I had to replace my jacket, and I also decided that I really, really needed a haircut.

So I went over to Del Amo Mall, made a stop at Burlington Coat Factory, and found a walk-in place. Then I drove over to the beach, with the thought of taking a little walk, but at that point I was starting to feel like a zombie, including the without-the-brains part. So I stopped at Trader Joes in Manhattan beach, picked up some water, balance bars and peanuts, and headed back to the room, where I took a soak in a hot tub, and finally called it a (very long) day. Not as long as Bill Murray’s in Groundhog Day, but at least he got to sleep every night. Now that I think about it, I miscalculated the duration last night (no doubt due to my sleep-deprived addledness). It was actually forty-four hours.

Anyway, I slept for seven hours, woke up, couldn’t get back to sleep. Which is OK. It’s 6 AM, PDT, and I’m ready to start a California day, and get a good night’s sleep tonight for the drive to Phoenix tomorrow.

It’s kind of amazing, really, how adaptable the body is.

Political Commentary

What A Difference Three Years Makes

8 Comments

In 2005, Obama said of himself the same things that Gerry Ferraro said about him:

Obama acknowledges, with no small irony, that he benefits from his race.

If he were white, he once bluntly noted, he would simply be one of nine freshmen senators, almost certainly without a multimillion-dollar book deal and a shred of celebrity. Or would he have been elected at all?

This is outrageous, and racist. Right?

Will Obama demand his own resignation?

Or will he say, “I can no more disown Barack Obama than I can my bigoted, America-hating lunatic pastor”?

[Update a few minutes later]

Hitchens, on Obama’s political cynicism:

“If Barack gets past the primary,” said the Rev. Jeremiah Wright to the New York Times in April of last year, “he might have to publicly distance himself from me. I said it to Barack personally, and he said yeah, that might have to happen.” Pause just for a moment, if only to admire the sheer calculating self-confidence of this. Sen. Obama has long known perfectly well, in other words, that he’d one day have to put some daylight between himself and a bigmouth Farrakhan fan. But he felt he needed his South Side Chicago “base” in the meantime. So he coldly decided to double-cross that bridge when he came to it. And now we are all supposed to marvel at the silky success of the maneuver.

You often hear it said, of some political or other opportunist, that he would sell his own grandmother if it would suit his interests. But you seldom, if ever, see this notorious transaction actually being performed, which is why I am slightly surprised that Obama got away with it so easily. (Yet why do I say I am surprised? He still gets away with absolutely everything.)

Looking for a moral equivalent to a professional demagogue who thinks that AIDS and drugs are the result of a conspiracy by the white man, Obama settled on an 85-year-old lady named Madelyn Dunham, who spent a good deal of her youth helping to raise him and who now lives alone and unwell in a condo in Honolulu. It would be interesting to know whether her charismatic grandson made her aware that he was about to touch her with his grace and make her famous in this way. By sheer good fortune, she, too, could be a part of it all and serve her turn in the great enhancement.

More and more, it is clear that this is 2008’s Bill Clinton of 1992, in the way that he is treated by the press and his acolytes. We aren’t supposed to be judgmental about his mendacity and ability to spin and prevaricate. No, we’re supposed to admire how good he is at it.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!