Probably no posting until tomorrow morning. I’m in Albuquerque tonight, then down to Las Cruces tomorrow afternoon for the Persona Spaceflight Symposium and X-Prize Cup.
The Dems Lack Of Imagination
Michael Barone says that it’s not 2006 any more.
Peak Oil?
Well, according to this article, we’re past it. I don’t buy it, though. It says nothing about shale or tar sands, which are going to come on line in quantities that will make current prices unsustainable. Another encouraging thing is that solar may become competitive within a decade. As the Guardian article points out, we are in an energy transition period, but it’s nowhere near as apocalyptic as it makes it out to be.
The Contrast
I was at home in the United States just one day before the magnitude hit me like vertigo: America seems to be under a glass dome which allows few hard facts from the field to filter in unless they are attached to a string of false assumptions. Considering that my trip home coincided with General Petraeus
A New Kind Of Astronaut Opportunity
Michael Belfiore has his Sputnik thoughts up at Financial Times.
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise
The supposed derived engine from Apollo isn’t going to be very derived after all:
“This one has to generate more than 290,000 pounds of thrust,” said Mike Kynard, J-2X program manager. “Not only is the J-2X going to be more powerful, it’s going to be different. Time has seen to that. This engine has its roots in Apollo, but we aren’t just lifting their work. It’s almost a new engine.”
This notion that we were going to save money with all these new vehicles by “deriving” them from existing hardware and designs was always kind of a scam (and it’s gotten more so as the designs have departed further from the original ESAS concepts). A five-segment SRB is also essentially a new motor relative to a four-segment one, in terms of understanding the structure and stresses, particularly when all of the loads (at least for The Stick) will be compressive, rather than some from the side as they are in the current Shuttle stack. The only thing really being preserved is the very costly, but politically essential “heritage workforce.” It may be necessary for political preservation of the program in Congress, but it does nothing to reduce costs of access to space, or truly open up the frontier.
[Update a few minutes later]
Thomas James is similarly unsurprised.
[Update a few minutes later yet]
Thomas also has further thoughts on whether or not space is the new Australia (with some comments on the history of northern Michigan).
Two For The Price Of One
Glenn is kvetching about having to buy both types of HD players:
The prices have dropped enough that I might be able to buy this high-rated HD-DVD player
and this Sony Blu-Ray player
My preference, actually, is to buy two things if I have the room, and I can afford them. Bundling functions in a single unit might seem convenient and cost saving, but the problem with it is that if one component fails, you still have to either replace the entire thing, or at least replace the functionality of the part that failed. The old example would be a combination microwave/range. The microwave dies, and you not only have to go replace it, but you can’t find a stock replacement for it that will fit the range, so you have a permanently dead microwave in your kitchen, and have to take up space with the new one on or under the counter. Unless you go out and replace the entire stove, even though the range and conventional oven are just fine.
A more recent, and mundane example is these television/DVD combos
A risk analyst (like yours truly in his day job) would say that by increasing the complexity you’re increasing the probability of failure (can anyone say Space Shuttle? Apparently it really bugged NASA to have to buy both a launch vehicle and an orbital laboratory…)
But I suspect that bundling is the wave of the future, particularly as electronics continues to become less and less expensive (as living space becomes more so).
Vice President Brownback?
I don’t know how likely it is, but I thought that there was an interesting comment at this post about Giuliani’s candidacy.
I find it interesting because, rightly or wrongly, the vice president has been traditionally in charge of space policy. And while there are a lot of things that I wouldn’t want Sam Brownback in charge of, considering that his adviser on space was Pete Worden, we might be in for some very interesting space policy under him.
A Deadly Combo
It was one of the driest seasons on record in Southern California this year. The grass and weeds in the local mountains was certainly tinder dry. With the arrival of the hot Santa Ana winds, the area was ripe for a fire, and sure enough, Malibu is in flames. I remember years ago going down to the strand in Manhattan Beach, and looking across the dark South Bay at the orange glow across the water the last time this happened.
It’s a beautiful area to live, but the wealthy residents should have to carry their own insurance. But I suspect that, just is the case on barrier islands and other flood and fire zones, they’ll get help from the federal taxpayers, most of whom make much less than Malibu residents, and can’t afford to live in such places, to rebuild once again.
[Update in the afternoon]
Wow, this sounds like it might be the worst Malibu fire in history. I’m hearing that Malibu Canyon is aflame, including the Presbyterian Church (if it’s the one I’m thinking of, it has a beautiful view of the ocean below–I attended a college roommate’s wedding there years ago), the Malibu Castle is engulfed in flames, and I’m sure that Hughes Research Lab (or whatever it’s called these days after all the acquisitions) and Pepperdine are threatened.