Rocketeers

I just scored a review copy of Michael Belfiore’s new book. Unfortunately, part of the deal is that the review won’t be published until August, so you’ll have to wait until after the book (on August 1st) comes out to read it.

Comments Hygiene

I’ve got a long fuse, and a slow one, but it’s not infinite in either regard. If anyone wonders why Brian Swiderski will no longer be posting here (at least under that IP), the reason can be found here:

Do you imagine I’m trying to be persuasive? If I were, you wouldn’t even be talking to me–you’d be brooding over your own confusion, and then later congratulating yourself on having convinced me of your ideas.

If he’s not even trying to change anyone’s mind, I see no reason at all to any further tolerate his ongoing pollution of my web site.

Last One Out is a Rotten Egg

The Bear Stearns bailout and failure respectively of two hedge funds with hundreds of millions (formerly) of equity and $10 billion+ of debt is causing some new soul searching among risk managers about the continuing sub prime overlending. The credit card issuer risk managers are taking the opportunity to tighten consumer credit for credit cards and probably soon other kinds of consumer credit.

By tightening credit card terms and mortgage terms, banks exacerbate the difficulty that sub prime borrowers may have making their house payment and refinancing their loans when teaser rates end. As lenders tighten terms, there will be a knock on effect of more sour loans. This is a game with a distinct first-mover advantage. Many consumers even in the sub prime market have more than one credit card. If Barclays credit cards (e.g., Juniper, US Air, Barnes&Noble, etc.) tighten their credit standards, Chase and Bank of America tighten their balance transfer requirements, banks that keep their offers open longest may be the ones that suffer in the event of a rise in consumer bankruptcy. Oddly, all of the acquisitions by Chase, Bank of America and others of competing credit card issuers means that they have internalized a higher share of the pain than in the last recession, but they are still fighting the last war.

The credit card and mortgage defaults may, in turn, dry up some sources of liquidity for hedge funds that buy credit card and mortgage backed securities and other consumer debt. There is still plenty of money gushing into the global financial system (China’s government and consumers are socking away a lot of money in anticipation of a labor shortage when they retire and no trillion dollar social security program to help them and expect India, Pakistan and Indonesia to join them as their demographic bulge matures coincident with speedy growth). So unwinding the sub prime fiasco will just increase the appetite for return and dollar denominated assets in other sectors of the world economy. But that’s small consolation for the millions of people caught in a credit crunch. A politician cleaning up bad credit is going to lose votes when voters find out the alternative is no credit.

My proposal is for there to be a federal car loan program and a federal health care loan program.

Continue reading Last One Out is a Rotten Egg

Ariane

Ariane is touted in an article by Andy Pasztor in today’s Wall Street Journal with a new person singing its praises–Mike Griffin:

Mr. Griffin declared the launch system “probably the best in the world, very smooth and very impressive.”

One quibble: there is an apple to orange comparison of the commercial launch business ($2.7 billion) to US national security space spending ($80 billion). Commercial space launch supports tens of billions in satellite products, services and content. A more relevant comparison would be to look at how much the Department of Defense spends on launchers. The total space budget for military and intelligence is in the $50 billion range. Launch costs presumably would comprise about 3-4% of that if they were more competition. I’m having a little trouble finding a good source of Pentagon launch spending budget figures, but I’m guessing it’s in the 5-10% range.

Supine

Mark Steyn writes that we’ve replaced Salman Rushdie in hiding:

I told my London friends that I had to hand it to Tony Blair’s advisers: What easier way for the toothless old British lion, after the humiliations inflicted upon the Royal Navy sailors by their Iranian kidnappers, to show you’re still a player than by knighting Salman Rushdie for his “services to literature”? Given that his principal service to literature has been to introduce the word “fatwa” to the English language, one assumed that some characteristically cynical British civil servant had waved the knighthood through as a relatively cheap way of flipping the finger to the mullahs.

But no. It seems Her Majesty’s Government was taken entirely by surprise by the scenes of burning Union Jacks on the evening news.

Can that really be true? In a typically incompetent response, Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, issued one of those “obviously we’re sorry if there’s been a misunderstanding” statements in which she managed to imply that Rushdie had been honored as a representative of the Muslim community. He’s not. He’s an ex-Muslim. He’s a representative of the Muslim community’s willingness to kill you for trying to leave the Muslim community. But, locked into obsolescent multicultural identity-groupthink, Mrs. Beckett instinctively saw Rushdie as a member of a quaintly exotic minority rather than as a free-born individual.

This is where we came in two decades ago. We should have learned something by now. In the Muslim world, artistic criticism can be fatal. In 1992, the poet Sadiq Abd al-Karim Milalla also found that his work was “not particularly well-received”: he was beheaded by the Saudis for suggesting Muhammad cooked up the Quran by himself. In 1998, the Algerian singer Loun

Rushdie, Rutton and Reynolds

Roger Simon has some depressing thoughts on press partisanship, and (what he hopes isn’t) the coming end of the Enlightenment:

As one who is fundamentally disinterested in whether one is a Democrat or a Republican – or even a liberal or a conservative, since those terms have been reduced to intellectual rubble – I found what Glenn wrote terrifyingly dark. Because even though I don’t much care any longer for political parties – they come and go and rename themselves, etc. – I care passionately about the Enlightenment, free speech, separation of church and state, freedom of assembly and the rest of that short but delicate list that makes life decent in the West.

And I agree with the commenters. I don’t think that Glenn was saying it was a good argument for electing a Democrat as president–just that it was the best one.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!