Depressed

Al Qaeda knows, and admits, that they’re losing the war. They do think they’ve had some success on one front, though:

The policy followed by the brothers in Baghdad is a media oriented policy without a clear comprehensive plan to capture an area or an enemy center. Other word, the significance of the strategy of their work is to show in the media that the American and the government do not control the situation and there is resistance against them. This policy dragged us to the type of operations that are attracted to the media, and we go to the streets from time to time for more possible noisy operations which follow the same direction.

This direction has large positive effects; however, being preoccupied with it alone delays more important operations such as taking control of some areas, preserving it and assuming power in Baghdad (for example, taking control of a university, a hospital, or a Sunni religious site).

Don’t expect to read about this aspect in the New York Times.

Peter Diamandis Cooking

How can a man top the creation of X Prize, X Prize Cup, X Racer and Zero G Corporation, International Space University, Starport.com, Students for Exploration and Development of Space and Space Adventures?

As keynote speaker at the International Space Development Conference last night, he forecast that he would be making a major announcement this year about a private foundation to support spaceflight to Mars. His expectation is that he could privately raise $3 billion dollars from 10,000 people willing to commit $100,000; 1,000 people willing to commit $1 million and 100 people willing to commit $10 million. He thinks with the right fund managers, this could earn 15-17% returns and double every 5 years. Within 10 years, the money would be sufficient to finance two or more human Mars missions.

These people would then play a game to determine who would be in the 100 person astronaut corps. That corps would be rigorously trained and tested and down-selected into 12 colonists for the first crew. These crew would then undertake a one-way colonization mission to Mars.

Earlier would come private exploration missions. Later would come private pre-placement missions pre-placing supplies, power generation equipment and habs. Then a cycler would take colonists to Mars who would use a lander to get to their pre-placed equipment. The bulk of the mass would head back to Earth to be refurbished, resupplied and reused if economical.

He calls it the ‘Mars Citizenship Program’.

Peter, I said it last night. I am in for $100,000. I am also willing to run a game for you to select from 100,000,000 people putting in $10.

Continue reading Peter Diamandis Cooking

Freedom 7

I’m posting this a little after midnight, but May 5th was the forty-fifth anniversary of Alan Shepard’s historic flight. And I have to get to bed for about four hours sleep so I can catch a 6 AM flight to Detroit, where my niece is having her first communion this weekend. Blogging will be light. Thoughts about the conference upon return.

Coffee Maker Blogging

Instapundit is discussing coffee makers.

As a non-coffee drinker who makes the coffee for Her, she objects to me performing initial preparation the night before, because the grounds aren’t fresh. I have to get up before her, and make a latte on a little two-cup Krups (model 872-42), complete with milk steamer, which has worked fine except the plastic cover over the carafe broke off the little tabs that clip it on within a few months of purchase (it’s about a year and a half old now), and requires careful cleaning of the little pinhole at the end of the steam nozzle with a safety pin (or if one is more bold, a straight one), lest one end up with naught but unfoamy warm mammary juice into which to lovingly pour the sacred sludge.

Lest one think me a true hero of domesticity, let it be known that I work at home while she has an often-ugly commute.

Burt Rutan Is Not God

Dale wants me to comment on yesterday’s entertaining but unconstructive rant from the sage of Mojave. I know it will sound like heresy to some, but the post title is all I have to say at this time, for those commenters at his post who seem to think the opposite. He won the X-Prize because he got funded, not because he’s the only person who could do it, or even had the best way to do it. The fact that he doesn’t know how to get to orbit means nothing, except that he doesn’t know how to get to orbit. There are smart people who do, given sufficient funds, and there is more than one way to do it.

[Update a couple minutes later]

I just noticed that Sam had some other thoughts on one of Burt’s other unuseful and illogical comments.

Rutan and Safety

Rutan said anyone offering spacecraft for commercial service should demonstrate their confidence in the system’s safety by having their children be among the first fliers, as Branson has said he will do.

Spaceship guru roasts his rivals,” Alan Boyle, MSNBC.com

Should cigarette makers force their children to smoke or withdraw their product? Should parachute makers force their children to skydive or withdraw their product?

This does not follow. People afraid of heights should be allowed to sell bungee jumping supplies without personally testing them. The deathly afraid maker might design better equipment than a fearless one. Makers of hazardous products do not have to partake and may be sending a clearer message if they don’t. That does not mean their product should be shunned.

It is ironic that Virgin Galactic will be required to disclose its product is quite risky. It will require flying thousands of times before showing a spacecraft is as safe as a military jet. Very little is learned from a single draw on a distribution. 98% of shuttle astronauts returned. All that Branson and his family flying prove by flying is that they are risk takers, not that his craft is safe. It is a greater disservice to create a false impression of safety than to put a product on the market where hazards are fully disclosed and no effort is made to express false confidence.

Rutan’s sentiment is a throwback to medieval food testers to test for poison. He is not alone–Transportation Safety Administration required people to take a drink of liquids they were carrying (at least in Austin). Weird.

We will have a choice of vendors for spaceflight. Some of them will fly the owners first. Some of them will fly with a pilot and others will be remotely operated from the ground.

Would Space-Shot.com customers like me to raise the price of an entry so I can fly personally before the first winner?

Should Rush Have Gotten Twenty-Five Years?

Jacob Sullum, on the absurdity and ongoing misjustice of the War on (Some) Drugs:

“Perhaps the only way for draconian drug laws to change,” says Drug Policy Alliance Executive Director Ethan Nadelmann, “is for people like Limbaugh to join other nonviolent drug offenders behind bars.”

One of those nonviolent drug offenders is Richard Paey, who faced allegations remarkably similar to those against Limbaugh. Both men suffered severe back pain for which they underwent unsuccessful surgery, and both were accused of fraudulently obtaining more narcotics than they really needed. But while Limbaugh remains a free man and will not even face criminal charges if he continues to attend drug treatment for the next 18 months (something he was planning to do anyway), Paey is serving a 25-year sentence in a Florida prison.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!