The Failed Paradigm That Won’t Die

The Japanese lost a rocket and its payload of surveillance satellites yesterday. Once again, like the Chinese, their decision to play “follow the leader,” instead of being a leader, has come back to bite them and their space program. Taking the lead from the government space agencies of the US, Russia and Europe, they continue to operate under the delusion that space launch can be made affordable and reliable by souping up expendable ballistic missiles, and launching them a few times a year. The reality is that neither goal can be achieved by that method.

No matter how vaunted your quality control, and technological prowess, it is simply not possible to reliably or affordably build vehicles for which each flight is a first flight and a last, particularly when you build so few.

This is why I don’t fear international competition when it comes to space. The only people really making breakthroughs and demonstrating innovation right now are in the Anglosphere, and are for the most part American (though they have nothing to do with NASA). By the time the rest of the world realizes what’s happening in Mojave and other places, they’ll be too far behind to catch up.

And by the way, I should add, via Mark Whittington, that the Chinese have now set out their bold space goal–they’ll put a man on the moon in 2020–sixteen years from now, and only half a century after we did it. I found this part particularly amusing:

…until Luan’s comments, officials had denied having plans for a manned lunar landing. They insisted that, in contrast to the U.S.-Soviet space race of the 1960s, China was moving at its own careful, cost-effective pace.

Careful, perhaps, but hardly cost effective.

And Mark thinks that this will, or should, have the American public quaking in our collective boots?

At that rate, they’ll be greeted on arrival by the concierge at Club Med Luna…

Limited Posting Continues

As regular readers have noticed, I haven’t posted in a few days. I was working seventy-hour weeks, and Thursday was my first day off since November 6th. I’m decompressing this weekend, and don’t have a lot to say right now. Things should be calming down for a while–though I’m still working full time for at least another week, it won’t be at burnout pace, and I may have time to start posting again. I will note that I got an email from Jim Oberg about the recent unexplained sound on the ISS, subject: Ignorance is Bliss.

He thinks that NASA is being entirely too nonchalant about this, particularly in light of what happened last February:

Seems like NASA has decided that since they can’t figure out what caused that alarming noise, they are justified in assuming it can’t be dangerous. I’m particularly amused by Foale’s assurances that “It was a sound, but nothing happened after that. I think everything is OK,” which reminds me of his famous quote before arriving at Mir in 1997, “I’m not worried about it — the safety is perfectly assured.”

No news mention of the elevated background noise in the SM — if both crewmen distinctly heard something, it had to have been LOUD. No news mention that major portions of the SM exterior were not observable by the SSRMS cameras (“If the parts we can see have no damage, we can assume the parts we can’t see are the same”). No mention that if the noise WAS a fan internal debris impact, there should be checkable, verifiable consequences (power surge, debris in line, hole in in-going filter, off-balance blade flutter, etc.) that have not apparently been even looked for.

A friend of mine who served on a nuclear submarine tells me that unusual sounds were usually the first clues they ever got — even ahead of instrumentation readings — of mechanical malfunction, and they worked VERY hard to track down their causes — they NEVER just assumed that if they couldn’t figure it out, it was ‘probably harmless’. This may indeed have been harmless, but forgive me for being unimpressed with the apparent nonchalent holiday-relaxed NASA reaction to it, even after they claim to “get it” about ignoring signs that Columbia was in trouble.

Dising Speling

Joanne Jacobs discusses a recent article in the Chron about how some teachers have given up on teaching kids spelling and grammar, which set off an interesting and (I think) unnecessarily divisive discussion about what makes a good speller. Joanne claims that reading and a love of reading from an early age is important for later spelling skills.

While I think she’s largely right, this issue seems almost like the nature versus nurture debate for sexual orientation. Yes, there probably isn’t a hundred percent correlation, but the correlation could be high, and a few people chiming in with anecdotes about themselves doesn’t provide any insight.

There are no doubt people (perhaps dyslexics or others) who are really constitutionally unable to spell well, who are nonetheless intelligent and enjoy reading and writing. But I also think that the notion that reading from an early age imprints the way the words look is valid for many people, particularly for those who are (like me) extremely verbal (i.e., I tend to think in words rather than images or concepts). When I spell, I actually visualize the word in my mind, and when I see a misspelling on a page, it jumps out at me almost as though it’s a different color.

Some people in her comments section point out that it’s becoming an unnecessary skill with the advent of spell checkers. In my humble opinion a spell checker for poor spellers is a worse crutch than a calculator for those who can’t do simple arithmatic, because at least the calculator never gets it wrong. But a spell checquer will only tell you if a word is spelled correctly–not if it’s the right word.

Reading, riting and rithmatic are just as important, if not more important now than they’ve ever been, and it’s a travesty that these things are not being properly taught in our public schools, and that many of the public school employees don’t seem to think that they should be. The words of the commission on public education from over two decades ago remain just as true, or even more so, today. If a foreign power had imposed on our nation the public school system that we’ve devised for ourselves, we would rightly consider it an act of war.

John Fitzgerald Bush? Not Quite

As some people have pointed out, there are some interesting parallels between President John F. Kennedy and current President George W. Bush.

While imperfect, the analogy is indeed apt in many ways.

Both were ardent tax cutters. Both were scions of a wealthy aristocratic New England family.

Both were elected in a year ending in “0” (1960 and 2000). Both won in a very close, controversial and disputed race (it’s still believed by many that there was massive vote fraud in Chicago, giving Kennedy Illinois and the presidency). In so doing, both retook the White House from eight years of a previous popular president of the opposite party, against whose vice president they ran and won (Eisenhower and Nixon for Kennedy, Clinton and Gore for Bush). Both were elected a few years after their party took over the Congress from their rival party, and (while this one hasn’t yet been borne out for Mr. Bush, it’s looking increasing likely) both led a realignment that made their party the national majority for years to come.

Interestingly enough, there may soon be another parallel.

Kennedy embarked the nation on our first (though hopefully not last) grand expedition to another world–earth’s moon, in a history-making speech in the first few months of his young presidency.

While President Bush may be a little late to the table in terms of timing (three years into his presidency), there are rumors that he is about to make a similar announcement–perhaps to go back to the moon, hopefully with a program less ephemeral than Apollo was or even, in the hopes of some, to Mars.

If he does this with vigor and commitment, many will indeed point out this new, exciting similarity to the JFK presidency–a president who boldly set his nation off into the cosmos, a man of vision who saw mankind’s destiny in the stars, who was willing to expend vital political capital to ensure a posterity for humanity off the planet as well as on, initiating a future in which man would go “where no man had gone before.”

The only problem with this parallel is that it would be a false one, because in fact Jack Kennedy was none of those things. Like many of the myths of Camelot, the notion of Kennedy as space visionary is a sham.

The charming youthful president with the beautiful and cultured wife was in fact a womanizer who hung out with mobster molls and prostitutes. The vigorous sailor and touch football athlete at Hyannisport was in fact often bed ridden and perhaps addicted to pain medication from back injuries. The hero of the Cuban missile crisis put the nation’s security at risk by exposing himself to blackmail.

It’s now well established that Kennedy never cared about space per se. What he cared about was beating the Russians to the moon, for its symbolic value. From White House tapes, in a conversation with then-NASA administrator James Webb in late November, 1962 (almost exactly forty one years ago), he said:

“Everything that we do should be tied into getting on to the moon ahead of the Russians. We ought to get it really clear that the policy ought to be that this is the top priority program of the agency and one… of the top priorities of the United States government,” he said.

“Otherwise we shouldn’t be spending this kind of money, because I am not that interested in space,” Kennedy said. “I think it’s good. I think we ought to know about it.

“But we’re talking about fantastic expenditures,” Kennedy said. “We’ve wrecked our budget, and all these other domestic programs, and the only justification for it, in my opinion, is to do it in the time element I am asking.”

This was in response to a plea by Webb to be allowed to give ample resources to other space exploration activities besides Apollo.

No president has ever been a true visionary of space, a Thomas Jefferson of the high frontier. Johnson carried on the Apollo program from Kennedy, but that was partly out of respect for a martyred president, partly out of the same motivation to gain some propaganda advantage over the Soviets in the Cold War, and partly out of a desire to industrialize the south, but none of these reasons were sufficient to keep him from making the decision to end the program in 1967, after it became clear that we were going to win the race by the end of the decade. It continued to fly through 1972, but no new lunar hardware was built.

Nixon was often blamed for the end of Apollo, but he was guilty only of failing to reverse the Johnson administration’s decision. Jimmy Carter had no interest in it, and his vice president, Walter Mondale, tried repeatedly to kill the Space Shuttle when he was a Senator in the 1970s.

Republicans, in fact, at least since Reagan (who initiated the space station program in 1984), have been more supportive of visionary space initiatives. The current President’s father announced a new space exploration initiative in July of 1989, but a recalcitrant Congress, in combination with an overambitious NASA, conspired to kill it.

So if, in fact, the current president Bush makes an announcement, whether on December 17th, the hundredth anniversary of the Wright brothers’ first flight (as is rumored) or in January in the State of the Union address, and it is truly meant to be a long-duration activity, rather than a war by peaceful means (it’s hard to imagine us being in a space race with Al Qaeda), it will actually be a first.

If indeed President Bush turns out to be a space visionary, it won’t be another parallel with JFK–it will be actually be counterevidence against the analogy.

Of course, considering that this coming Saturday is the fortieth anniversary of the day that President Kennedy was cut down by an assassin’s bullet in Dallas, Texas, with President Bush overseas in late November of the third year of his presidency, amidst hostile protestors marching in the streets chanting their irrational hatred of him, it should be our most fervent hope that he can avoid the most tragic parallel of all.

Lileks Does Vegas

And does he ever do it. Including the gaudy neon-colored links at the bottom.

I sat there thinking of the weekend?s diversions, the dinners, the spectacles, the fountain display, and I thought: these things were available once only to kings and princes and consorts and queens. This must have been what it was like to be a member of the royals in the days before the French Revolution ? except that I would have known everyone in this theater, and would have suspected a third of them of plotting against me.

I imagine that cuts into your enjoyment.

Sans people plotting against you, go forth and enjoy the whole thing.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!