Business, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture, Social Commentary

Trumpophrenia

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Is there a cure for it?

I suffer from it and it’s only getting worse. I change my opinion about Donald almost every five minutes – and I can’t be the only one. There may be millions of us. For some it’s even more problematic. These people are not Trumpophrenic. They are Trumpophobic. And, if this Drudge link has any veracity, they have taken their problem to their shrinks.

I haven’t gone that far – yet. But I am searching for a cure for Trumpophrenia before I have to reach for the Haldol. If he becomes president, I don’t want any of us to become real life schizophrenics ourselves, unable to predict what our leader will say or do next.

But basically I think he’s a good guy and his heart is the right place. His instincts for making America great again are also basically good. So I will make my plea. Donald, you and only you are the cure for Trumpophrenia. Do it. Take us out of our misery. If you want to be president, start acting like one. Now.

He’s not capable of it. My opinion of Trump is actually quite steady. I’ve never had a high opinion of him, and the more I see of him the more loathsome the ignorant con artist grows to me. I keep hoping for that Face In The Crowd moment, but I fear it will never come.

[Afternoon update]

Today’s results may make that moment approach a little sooner. Cruz reportedly mopped up the floor with Trump in Kansas, 50-25, and he’s beating him in Maine as well.

Law, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Technology and Society, War Commentary

Hillary’s Latest Email Problems

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John Schindler deconstructs the Gray Lady’s attempt to whitewash:

At the National Security Agency—where I used to work as a senior intelligence analyst, including as the technical director of NSA’s largest operational division—what outsiders call hacking is handled by a shadowy group called Tailored Access Operations that gets at the hard targets requiring actual cyber-break-ins. TAO are probably the best hackers on earth, but Russia and China are no slouches either, as demonstrated by their repeated infiltrations into protected U.S. Government computer networks in recent years.

However, unencrypted IT systems don’t need “hacking”—normal SIGINT interception will suffice. Ms. Clinton’s “private” email, which was wholly unencrypted for a time, was incredibly vulnerable to interception, since it was travelling unprotected on normal commercial networks, which is where SIGINT operators lurk, searching for nuggets of gold.

They hunt for data with search terms called “selectors”—a specific phone number, a chatroom handle, an email address: here Ms. Clinton’s use of the “clintonmail.com” server was the SIGINT equivalent of waving a huge “I’m right here” flag at hostile intelligence services. Since the number of spy agencies worldwide capable of advanced SIGINT operations numbers in the many dozens, with Russia and China in the top five, that Ms. Clinton’s emails wound up in the wrong hands is a very safe bet, as any experienced spy will attest.

The amount of ignorance on this issue spouted by her defenders is both staggering and terrifying.

Business, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

This Morning’s Space Press Conference

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I listened in by phone. Here‘s the white paper.

As one would expect, a consensus from thirteen space organizations is going to be mostly motherhood, and implicitly self contradictory. More after I’ve taken the time to go through it. Elliot Pulham said that the campaigns have received it with “gratitude and interest,” but as he said, the main goal is not so much to inject space into the campaigns as to prevent people from saying stupid things about it. Good luck with that.

Business, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture, Social Commentary

Stopping Trump

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Berin Szoka lays out the scenarios:

PLAN A: Stop Trump before the convention (5%?)

PLAN B: Deny him a majority, forge an alliance to pick anyone else (20%?)

PLAN C: Sane Republicans reform as the Conservative/Constitutional Party, deny either Hillary or Trump a majority of electoral votes (it would have to be a swing state, unless Trump is sweeping those, which is quite possible), which kicks the election to the House, where Republicans would elect the Conservative/Constitutional alternative to Trump (30%)

PLAN D: Use a Hillary presidency to catalyze the party around a new set of ideas, that respond to profound economic discontent without resorting to racism, protectionism or demagoguery. Paul Ryan leads what the Gingrich Revolution should have been. (25%)

PLAN E: Batten down the hatches and prepare to ride out a
or a Trumpclear winter. Keep a list of Trump’s Vichycon collaborators for purging when The Occupation ends. (20%)
A would be nice but almost certainly won’t happen. B just might. C may well be our best hope. D may be what the GOP really needs. E absolutely terrifies me — not just in terms of the 4-8 years of a Trump reign, but in terms of its long-term consequences for American politics.

My preference is obviously (A), but that seems unlikely at this point.

Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture, Social Commentary

Trump’s “Victory”

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I was thinking this last night as well. It’s not as strong as it looked:

We won’t know the exact numbers until Wednesday, but it looks as though Trump will, by some estimates, finish with somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 delegates. A week ago, that would have been a worst-case scenario for his Super Tuesday. It gets worse: Cruz won resounding victories in Texas and Oklahoma. He trails Trump in the delegate haul for the night by only about 60 delegates. And when you put together the not-Trump share, Rubio and Cruz (and Kasich) will top out around 320 delegates to Trump’s 245 (or so). He’s still falling way short of half the delegates.

There’s more evidence of Trump weakness if you look closely: Why did he lose Oklahoma? Because it’s the only state where the vote was restricted to actual Republicans. Which further bolsters the case that Trump is not leading a revolt from within the party, but staging a hostile takeover of it.

Yes. The RNC’s primary process is idiotic, in that it’s set up to allow non-Republicans select their nominee.

The single most shocking number from Super Tuesday might have been this poll showing voter awareness about various aspects of Trump: Only 27 percent had heard about his reluctance to denounce David Duke and the KKK; 20 percent about Trump University and the fraud lawsuit; 13 percent about the failure of Trump Mortgage.

At some point, those numbers will all be at 90 percent because someone will spend a lot of money putting ads about them all over television in battleground states. The only question is whether it will be conservatives or Hillary Clinton who expose voters to this information. Either way, it suggests that Trump still has the potential for downward mobility if conservative donors are serious about stopping him.

Of course, you can spend your life flyspecking trend lines. And Trump could continue to lose momentum over the next four weeks and still grind his way to the nomination. Winning is what matters.

But if you believe that stopping Trump matters too, then Super Tuesday offered evidence this goal is achievable.

We opened with Sly Stallone but we’ll close with Arnold and a great line Predator: “If it bleeds, we can kill it.” That’s true of Trumpism. Maybe Trump will be the nominee. That’s where you’d put your money if forced to bet on it. But it’s not a foregone conclusion. And if anything, Super Tuesday proved both Trump’s strength and his vulnerability.

Yes. It isn’t too late to stop him, but it would sure help if the non-Trumpers could coalesce. Kasich almost certainly gave Virginia to Trump.

[Late-morning update]

Aaaaand Carson is out. So, is Kasich cutting a deal with Trump, or staying in under the delusion that an Ohio win will somehow propel him to ultimate victory?

[Thursday-morning update]

The Trump tipping point. What strikes me about the Trump supporters is how utterly ideologically incoherent they are. Just like him. If you could go with either Trump or Sanders, you have no political principles, other than “the guy who will give me stuff I want.”

[Update Thursday afternoon]

Trump wants to make America great again. Like Denmark.

And the GOP establishment had it coming. No question about that.

Business, Political Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

Reforming Space Policy

Space News has a story on Bridenstine’s proposed legislation.

I’ll have to take a look at the actual draft bill, but it has some good things, and some not so good. I don’t think that SSA should be simply handed over to the FAA. I don’t think that FAA should even be involved in launch licensing. If we’re going to be making radical changes in structure, it’s time to seriously consider a U.S. Space Guard.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!