After Obama assumed office in January, whatever hesitation that existed in North Korea’s policy-making circles regarding the likely response of U.S. administration has disappeared, and its leadership now feels it can defy the U.S. and the international community with impunity.
A series of actions taken by the Obama administration have created an impression in Iran, the “Af-Pak” region, China and North Korea that Obama does not have the political will to retaliate decisively to acts that are detrimental to U.S. interests, and to international peace and security.
Among such actions, one could cite: the soft policy toward Iran: the reluctance to articulate strongly U.S. determination to support the security interests of Israel; the ambivalent attitude toward Pakistan despite its continued support to anti-India terrorist groups and its ineffective action against the sanctuaries of Al-Qaida and the Taliban in Pakistani territory; its silence on the question of the violation of the human rights of the Burmese people and the continued illegal detention of Aung San Suu Kyi by the military regime in Myanmar; and its silence on the Tibetan issue.
I’m afraid it could be a lot worse.
[Early evening update]
More thoughts from Victor Davis Hanson:
Fate, chance, luck, and more will contribute to the outcome of any presidential action — unpredictable, of course, but in the cruel game of assessing presidential decision-making, no grounds for excuse.
Moreover, both these problems not only antedated Obama, but antedated Bush as well, yet they cannot be massaged with “reset” button and a “Bush did it,” nor by soaring “hope and change” rhetoric. Neither Ahmadinejad nor Kim Jong-il care a whit about Obama’s landmark advance to the presidency, or his sober and judicious efforts to show rational concern for their own predicaments; instead, they calibrate only the degree to which Obama poses an obstacle to their regional ambitions, whether they be rational or not.
As David Pryce-Jones notes, the more sincere he is, the more naive he seems.
It’s almost six months into the Obama administration. Could the North Korean nuclear test be the major international crisis foretold by Biden? He predicted that “they” (he and Obama, in that order) would make some unpopular decisions when — not if — it came. It will be interesting to see with whom they’ll be unpopular.
North Korea by definition cannot be a crisis. NK is just some minor POS state like Somalia or Sudan. You make NK a crisis if you treat it as one.
James Earl Carter, like him or lump him, served his country in uniform (in fact, as an officer in Adm. Hyman Rickover’s Nuclear Navy: in other words, under one of the most exacting taskmasters the Pentagon could produce) and ran a family business before entering politics.
Obama has never run a business; never served his country. He cound’t be Jimmy Carter on his best day.
NK is just some minor POS state like Somalia or Sudan.
Yeah, some minor POS state like Somalia or Sudan with nukes and missiles.
I wish that, just once in a while, you’d have an intelligent comment.
I said it before, I never thought we’d have a worse president in my life than Jimmy Carter, but Obama took the title in his first 100 days.
Some people think history will repeat… after JC came our best president Ronald Reagan (although they try to smear him as well, it just doesn’t stick)… but after BO I just expect more stink.
We had one candidate that could actually articulate a sound position, but the media said he had no fire in his belly and even conservatives agreed. I do not believe the ebb and flow of politics as usual can be trusted no matter how badly Obama does.
People understood the great communicator and agreed with him. but even he would not have stood a chance in today’s media environment. The media has no honor and no shame. They can label a fairly intelligent woman like Sara Palin a hick and get the world to agree… mob group think, trusting the media rather than their own lying eyes.
Do they even teach American history to kids these days or do they just drug them in their reeducation camps?
Jack Lee is totally right! What action should Obama take? We’ve sanctioned them as far as we can, and we certainly haven’t been successful the last four times when we’ve tried to bribe them to stop. Is North Korea going to commit suicide by bombing the U.S.? Obama is right to sit back and let this percolate. If it turns into a true disaster maybe that will convince China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea to take action. That’s the key to the whole thing.
North Korea by definition cannot be a crisis. NK is just some minor POS state like Somalia or Sudan. You make NK a crisis if you treat it as one.
Are Japan and South Korea POS states too? My belief is that if North Korea is allowed to have nuclear weapons (and yes, I believe the world and particularly the US is in a position to prevent North Korea from having nuclear weapons), then Japan will develop its own nuclear weapons. South Korea has a strong incentive to develop some sort of nuclear defense once it is surrounded by nuclear-armed countries.
If it turns into a true disaster maybe that will convince China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea to take action. That’s the key to the whole thing.
The obstacle is China. None of the other countries really matter because their influence on North Korea is minimal. I’m still not convinced that North Korea is developing a nuclear bomb on their own. It would be a convenient way for China to bypass the nuclear test ban treaty.
The size blast today is not of a size device that an advanced nuclear power such as China would need to test. It was a Hiroshima-class weapon. I doubt if this is a circumvention of the CNTBT. Sometimes things are just what they appear to be. North Korea now has nukes, and they are aggressively developing long range missiles. Personally, I think it’s a bad situation. But I don’t have the sophistication required to determine why such a thing is not to be considered a crisis.
“The size blast today is not of a size device that an advanced nuclear power such as China would need to test. It was a Hiroshima-class weapon. I doubt if this is a circumvention of the CNTBT.”
Unless it is a trigger for a Hydrogen Bomb.
Why does Hanson cite Ahmadinejad? Does he actually think Ahmadinejad calls the shots in Iran?
Obama being like Carter is the over….whats the under?
And as far as Carter serving in the Navy, so? Even under Rickover – all that proves is that he could suck up to the old man, and memorize reams of information. Too bad he never figured out that he’s NOT the smartest guy in the room – wasn’t then (in the Navy), wasn’t during his presidency, and sure isn’t now.
BTW, I was on active duty for the entire Carter travesty. I was able to relax once President Reagan was sworn in.
Iran has a nuke program and Missiles.
Pakistan has had nukes and Missiles for a decade.
India has had nukes for 30 years.
Brazil has had ICBM’s for 20 years.
Argentina Too.
France has had nukes 40 50? years.
The UK has Nukes.
China has had nukes for 50-60 years.
The number of nuke states is growing, it’s 1944 technology.
What is the answer when Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,
Phillipines work on these?
Fundamentally Nukes aren’t very effective tools of national policy.
If they were effective Bush would have used them.
Only an imbecile would equate NK nukes to UK nukes.
China has had nukes for around 40 years.
Jack, what makes you think the norks and the iranians are rational actors by any reasonable definition?
“Jack, what makes you think the norks and the iranians are rational actors by any reasonable definition?”
They agree with him that America is a bad actor. QED.
Fundamentally Nukes aren’t very effective tools of national policy.
If they were effective Bush would have used them.
Every US president since Truman has used nukes. They are most effective when as a result of having them, you don’t need to blow something up with one.
Unless it is a trigger for a Hydrogen Bomb.
You got it, Mike. As I understand it, one of the key problems in developing more advanced nuclear weapons is developing compact nuclear triggers. Allegedly, China has stolen designs for some nuclear warhead designs from the US. Even if North Korea never starts to test hydrogen bombs, this would be an opportunity to upgrade their nuclear weapons with advanced triggers, either a copy of a US design or some improved home-brew design.
Perhaps we should adopt the Progressive approach to diplomacy, and just encourage Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to develop nukes. Forget this non-proliferation concept, everyone should have nukes. Then, Obama can eliminate all US nuclear weapons, right after he eliminates are ballistic missile defense capability. Then we can go back to teaching children to hide underneath their desks, and it will be like the 1950’s all over again. Oh those Happy Days!
“ack, what makes you think the norks and the iranians are rational actors by any reasonable definition?”
Iran ruthlessly is aimed at it’s national goals, so is Kim Jr.
Now their goals aren’t our goals but, Kim wants to maintain power, Iran wants regional dominance.
Getting a nuke in the face defeats those goals. Having a nuke helps them.
One thing that made me nervous about Obama during the campaign. He was belligerent and insulting toward allies, but conciliatory and friendly to enemy states. He’s followed that theme since his presidency with insulting and rude behavior toward Britain and virtually ignoring south and central American allied states in the conference, but giving his first press conference to Al jezera, meeting with Palestine (while dismissing Israel), and being buddy buddy with Chavez of Venezuela at same south American conference
Boggling. Dising friends and giving respect to enemies all loses you friends, and gets you beat up by enemies. Not exactly complex – so I just don’t get what he’s thinking?
I just don’t get what he’s thinking?
Yes you do, but like anyone that’s been mugged it’s hard to come to terms with it.
..Or more like an abuse victim, whose abuser insists its all in their best interest.
Or the guy in Saving Private Ryan obeying when the guy bayoneting him whispers ‘shhhhh…’
Well, North Korea has upped the ante by apparently dropping the 55 year old armistice that ended the Korean war. I’m not terribly impressed by the US response.
> Washington is calling for a quick and unified response that will make it clear to Pyongyang that there are
>consequences for its actions.
>But US State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the door was still open to resume long-running six-party talks
>and that the US was looking at a “whole range of options”.
I.E. Washington wil do nothing, but while posturing in the most assertive way possible.
The problem isn’t so much that China doesn’t want to rein in the NorKs. It’s that they don’t want to deal with the refugees when the regime collapses. But, they’re going to have to do it sooner or later, so they might as well give it a push now. How to convince them to step up to the plate? Time for Japan and S. Korea to announce they are going nuclear, IMHO.
I would like to say Jimmy Carter is an exceptional man and a true American hero. His advice to Obama was right on the money leased to see that Obama has done exactly as Carter would have, or may have, suggested.Thanks.