The administration has been played (again) by North Korea. I doubt that it is a satellite launch, but it’s actually a lot easier to launch a satellite than to deliver a warhead (which is what they really want to learn how to do).
[Update mid afternoon]
A missile launch would be “a deal breaker for the administration.” Yeah, right.
IIRC, under international law, North Korea has as much right to launch a satellite as any other nation. Now, some of their earlier long range “satellite launch attempts” have passed right over Japan. Understandably enough, Japan isn’t too happy about that.
The velocity required of an ICBM is very similar to that required to put something into orbit but the trajectories are different. A long range missile trajectory typically has a lofted apogee on a parabolic arch compared to a satellite launch*. It shouldn’t be too hard to tell the difference by tracking the rocket (assuming it doesn’t blow up again). If it’s a missile trajectory and flying over Japan, it could be an opportunity to do some target practice.
*Back in 1990, I was a Space Surveillance Crew Commander at the Cobra Dane intelligence radar in the Aleutians. I got to track several Soviet missile and space launches and read a lot of the background info.
Whether or not North Korea is violating international law depends on whether one considers UN security council resolutions to constitute “international law”. UNSCR 1874 says North Korea is for the time being not to make any launches “using missile technology”, language specifically chosen to cover satellite launches using suspiciously missile-like vehicles.
Regardless of international law, there is the matter of the private agreement negotiated between the US and North Korean governments last month, in which (among other things) the Norks promised to refrain from launching missiles in exchange for a quarter of a million tons of food. Arguably international law allows North Korea to launch (unarmed) missiles and satellites to its heart’s content. Certainly international law allows the United States to point and laugh at millions of starving, freezing Koreans. Fortunately, international law allows and encourages nations to make deals that go beyond the bare legal minimums.
The question here is, are the North Koreans planning to break the deal they made, or did American negotiators leave a loophole big enough to launch a ginormous rocket through?
UNSCRs are even less useful than toilet paper. You can wipe your ass with toilet paper far more comfortably than a UNSCR document. UNSCRs are as useless as the organization that produces them.
Don’t hold back Larry, I think you’re on a ROLL…