History, Media Criticism, Political Commentary

Remember How The Wisconsin Recall Was Good News For Obama?

10 Comments

Nope.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 47% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Hard to see a path to victory for him if he loses Wisconsin.

[Afternoon update]

The GOP is born again, in Wisconsin. Most people aren’t aware that the state is the birthplace of the party.

10 thoughts on “Remember How The Wisconsin Recall Was Good News For Obama?”

        1. Wow. She has a Viking helmet? I didn’t know. I bet her approval ratings would go up if she wore it more often.

          1. Sarah Palin set the GOP on fire with her Viking picture, although she didn’t wear a helmet, just furs, while surrounded by guys in Viking helmets and babes in metal bras.

            Michelle always looked best at the weapons console of Klingon Bird of Prey.

  2. No path to 270 if Obama loses Wisconsin?

    It’s easy, all he has to do is peel off a few states McCain carried. Let’s see… How about West Virginia, and both Dakotas? That’s 11 EV’s, to replace Wisconsin’s 10. Okay, it’s be ever so slightly difficult, seeing as how 42% of WV Democrats troubled themselves to go to the polls to vote for some guy in a Texas penitentiary instead of Obama, so he’d likely lose amongst WV democrats against Romney, but he’d be okay if he carried the Republican vote by a huge margin. Same in the Dakotas. 🙂

    However, I’m seeing some interesting polls from Michigan, and to replace those 16 Ev’s he’d just need to carry Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah…

    However, you guys are forgetting something; how will Obama do in states #51 through 57? How many EV’s do they have? This darn electoral vote calculator I’ve got seems stuck on just 50 states, not the 56 or 57 Obama said he was campaigning in last time…

    /snark

    1. Considering this, why would voters in North Dakota give the president that blocked the Keystone XL pipeline anything other than a boot in the rear?

      1. That’s why I picked the Dakotas. 🙂

        To be serious for a moment, IMHO the chance of Obama carrying a state that went heavily for McCain is zero unless he’s winning by even more than he did in 2008. If he is losing Wisconsin or even close, that’s not happening.

        That said, November is a long way away. Plus, we have the chance of an October surprise. I remember Bush in 2000, who was on his way to a 3 point win before the drunk driving story broke, just days before the vote.

        In Obama’s case, the crux is economic. There’s a jobs report due out just days before the election. I’d bet good money that it’s going to come in looking very positive, only to be sharply revised downwards a couple of weeks later – after the election.

        I’m also a skeptic on polls. I was in gradeschool at the time, but I remember the cliffhanger predicted in the 1980 Carter-Reagan battle. The night before the election, they were still showing Carter with a quarter point lead, though “far too close to call”. I remember coming home from school (I lived on the west coast) and tuning in to watch the TV coverage (yes, I was a weird kid). They started calling states (Indiana first, as I recall) based on exit polls. State after state kept turning blue (Reagan’s color on the map in that election.). And the talking heads kept saying how “close” it was going to be, even then. I was just a kid, and had no clue how various states tended to vote, but even I could see that the only red on the map at that point was DC, but there was a whole lot of blue. Then they called Georgia for Carter, and I could see the smiles on the reporter’s faces. It was obvious even to me that they supported Carter.

        One line I’ll never forget from that night; a news anchor was looking at the electoral map, which had just added a bunch of states to Reagan’s column. “It’s starting to look like a big blue lake up there; this might be a long night for the president and his team.” Carter carried six states, for an EV total of 49, compared to Reagan’s 489.

        What happened was undecideds broke for Reagan by a wide margin, which they tend to do against an incumbent who is dogged by a bad economy and a record of economic failure. I’ll make a prediction now that Romney beats his polling final-weeks polling average by 3 points.

        🙂

  3. To be fair, it’s also the birthplace of the Progressive movement, leveraging a lot of writings from professors of “raceology” from the University of Wisconsin.

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