9 thoughts on “The Economy”

    1. I think it’s “Farview”, though I am in no way discounting the possibility it has trouble spelling its own name.

  1. I’ve always favored the v-shaped recession model myself though the future can change. What I think detractors have neglected (for example, here) is that the news looks particularly dire because businesses have been dumping their hidden bad news of the past decade and blaming it on covid.

    The biggest unknown for me is what’s going to happen with all that stimulus spending. I figure it’ll probably boost economic activity in the short term and dampen it in the long term, but it might act as a wet blanket even now.

    But if we believe in the economic model that alleges huge multipliers to such stimulus spending, we should see a huge boost to the economy just from this spending. Combine that with a partial reopening of the economy and it should be much like a rocket.

  2. Future NYT Headline:

    Economy Recovers – Women, Children, and Minorities Hardest Hit

  3. I think a lot will depend on what business you’re in.

    The airlines will have a hard time. I don’t think there are a lot of people anxious to get on a plane right now.

    The oil business will have to wait for consumption to recover and the glut to be absorbed. The low prices affect drilling but not production, short term. Once a well is producing, it will keep producing. In Texas, you can’t shut a well down for long without plugging it. That might change. So it’s going to take a while. The Saudi’s sure picked a great time start a gas war.

    Hertz going belly up is going to dump half million cars on the market.

    I don’t have a clue how fast restaurants will revive. It will mostly depend on whether or not people will feel safe enough to return. Even if restaurants survive, the people that work in them are going to be hurting for a while. Most operate on very thin margins that won’t survive reduced capacity.

    A lot will depend on how well they’ve managed to scare people. Customers being treated as a possible source of disease every place they go isn’t helping anybody’s business. It won’t take many people that keep staying home except for a weekly quick trip to the grocery store to make a long lasting recession.

    1. “It won’t take many people that keep staying home except for a weekly quick trip to the grocery store to make a long lasting recession.”

      This is exactly the wrong thinking, and is what is leading people astray on predicting the recovery. (Even economists, which is disappointing)

      First, the things that will be cut out are no longer a significant part of our economy. Most of our economy is online – complete lockdown did not kill 50% of the economy. So while certain sectors are in trouble, the overall economy is probably not.

      Second, “people staying home” doesn’t prevent the recovery: “people that decide to stay at home and not replace their habits with other habits” would prevent the recovery. The people that are staying home will find other things to do with their time, and end up spending/creating roughly the same amount. Bad for airlines, bad for restaurants, bad on net not that bad for the economy.

      This is a classic “unseen hand” situation. Redirection of resources absent government interference is probably what capitalism does best!

      1. This is the greatest aspect of capitalism if it’s left alone to operate. Weak businesses will be squeezed out. Prices to take over some businesses will fall allowing people with money to restart them. Other businesses will be created to incorporate changes that the Wuhan virus may have suggested.

        Perhaps remote learning to replace bad inner city schools?

        People will need haircuts badly (I know I do) and the barber shop business will boom.

        Not sure the trillions of stimulus will do anything other than increase the debt.

  4. “Sen. Chris Coons (Del.) was also optimistic. “It seems pretty unlikely to me that we’re going to have a really robust recovery in the next few months,” he said. “”

    Added, in haste, “Of course, we all hope there will be.”

    But he was originally “optimistic” that there wouldn’t be.

    It should not be lost on Americans that the best hope Democrats have to seize power is some calamity befalling us all.

  5. They (the muslim/socialist/academic left) had to play the COVID-19 hoax just right prevent President Trump’s election. I don’t know if they timed right or not. We’ll see. It’s like watching a long putt wind its way to the hole.

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