Like a superball. The poll was taken after the president’s convention speech:
— In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.
— In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.
— In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.
So much for the conventional wisdom that the electorate was “locked in place” and there were no undecideds, and no room for a bounce (which was the MSM excuse for the fact that Kerry didn’t get one).
There’s no way for the numbers to change this much except for former Kerry voters moving to Bush. I see no sign that Kerry has the ability or strategy to get them back. They say that the voters don’t start paying attention until after Labor Day. It looks like they may have started a few days early this year, and they may have finally started to take a good look at the junior Senator from Massachusetts.
What’s most interesting to me about this poll is the huge number of people who have written Kerry off. If that sentiment holds on election day, and people don’t believe that the election will be close, the wreckage will be even worse, because the Mooreheads will feel free to vote for third-party candidates like Nader or whoever Peace and Freedom puts out there. We may, in fact, have already reached that tipping point, once these polls become widely reported.