I speculated a few weeks ago that if the Democrats lost the Senate, the long knives (probably led by the egomaniacal Chuck Schumer) would be out for him. John Fund has a similar speculation.
All posts by Rand Simberg
Significant Conversations
Some old, but relevant thoughts on risk and safety, from Wayne Hale.
The Antares Problem
A piece at Forbes, quoting Dennis Wingo. I love this:
When contacted for comment, Orbital Sciences spokesperson Sean Wilson refused to be drawn into a discussion of the malfunctioning launcher’s problems.
“Until the investigation is complete, we can’t speculate on what caused the failure,” Wilson told Forbes.
Of course you can. You’re not under a gag order. You’re just using that as an excuse to not do so.
If You Strike Down Bill Maher
…he will become more powerful than you imagine.
I’m not a Bill Maher fan, but at least, unlike much of the left, he’s willing to be an equal-opportunity religion basher.
Saturday-Evening NTSB Brief
It’s about to start.
What Happened To SpaceShipTwo?
My thoughts, over at PJMedia.
I should note that I since I wrote it yesterday, I’m starting to think that perhaps a chunk of nylon at cold temperatures aloft broke off and blocked the nozzle, because I’m hearing that the oxidizer tank itself was intact, meaning that it was a combustion-chamber explosion (which would be consistent with the pictures). So perhaps it was a problem with the new fuel. Either way, we won’t know until the NTSB completes its investigation, but either way, I think they have to (finally) take a new approach.
[Evening update]
This article at The Telegraph is pretty devastating.
I think that the biggest issue at this point is how to stave off demands that the FAA start regulating, and to somehow still extend the learning period.
Disasters, And Time
Some thoughts from space anthropologist David Valentine on the different perspective of the space community:
“Space Is Hard” is a line I have heard from the beginning of my fieldwork in 2009, as is the acknowledgment that at some point, a disaster will strike, that someone will lose a life, and that the industry (and the social movement that I think it is) needs to prepare for its consequences. Starting yesterday, we began to see people doing just that. But it would be missing the point entirely to see this only as industry “damage control” or “spin.” At yesterday’s post-crash press conference in Mojave, Virgin Galactic’s CEO George Whitesides, visibly shaken and grief-struck, repeated this line—space is hard—and gave the usual corporate assurances one often hears in these kinds of press conferences. But he and Stu Witt—the outgoing CEO of the Mojave Air and Space Port—said other things in that press conference that only makes sense if you understand how time and history appear to Newspacers. “The future rests in many ways on hard, hard days like this,” said Whitesides. Witt, a central figure in making Mojave a center for Newspace industries, went further in responding to a young reporter’s question: “We’re doing this for you and your generation, it’s worthy, good business, it’s a cause greater than any of us. I see this as being like the Magellan mission.” For Whitesides the distant future and for Witt, the historical past make sense of the terrible loss they were enduring (and yes, I will be writing more about such colonial analogies at some future point, but not today).
If you hear these statements as pablum, as inappropriate, or as covers for corporate malfeasance, then I think you’re missing the point. I’d challenge you to find any other post-industrial-disaster press conference where people talk about the distant future or past in these ways, under duress, under the pressure of grief. The point is that Whitesides, Witt, and a host of other women and men have a deep commitment to a particular view of history and the future which—whether you find it compelling or not—helps them make sense of a death and the fracturing of daily life that have resulted from this crash. For them, the loss of this pilot’s life—a friend and colleague—is a sacrifice to a larger, historical goal. (For the best characterization of this view, see Rand Simberg’s Safe Is Not an Option). While questions abound about Virgin Galactic’s safety culture and the advisability of sending SpaceShip2 on this flight, for the myriad space settlement advocates who see history as coming back in alignment with its true course, this disaster should not spell the end of the Newspace mission because it is, in Witt’s words, worthy.
Yes.
The NTSB Briefing
It’s supposed to start at 9 AM PDT. Reportedly it will be live streamed by ABC-TV in Bakersfield.
[Post-briefing update]
OK, not much info. Christopher Hart, acting chairman of the NTSB said they’d just arrived, didn’t have any substantive info, would have another presser this afternoon after initial data gathering. Lead investigator will be a Lorenda Ward, with a team of 13-15 people. Didn’t know if vehicle had a black box, what altitude it occurred, but expects to get lots of telemetry/video because it was a test flight. That’s it until next presser. Follow @ntsb or go to ntsb.gov for schedule of future press conferences.
[Update at 09:32 PDT]
Channel 23 is still streaming from the Witt Center, Branson may be about to make a statement.
[Update a while later]
Leonard David has a transcript of Branson’s statement. As Miles O’Brien noted on Twitter, he seems to have lost some of his swagger.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Michael Belfiore: SpaceShipTwo and why space matters.
Virgin’s Engine Problems
Doug Messier wrote a long and prescient post last night.
I think this has to be the last straw for a nitrous hybrid engine. Several years too late, they have to move to a liquid if they’re to ever have a practical and safe vehicle.
A Quarter Of A Century After The Fall Of The Wall
Germany remains divided. History can remain destiny for a long time.