Category Archives: Business

There Goes Another Hundred Million

The next (and penultimate) Shuttle flight is now no earlier than May 16th.

John Shannon said last year that it costs about two hundred million a month to extend the program, so this two-week delay cost another hundred million dollars (note that four months of that burn rate would provide enough resources for another entire SpaceX). That assumes, of course, that this delay will also push out the the schedule of the final flight. I don’t know enough about KSC flows to know if that’s the case, or if they can be parallel processing Atlantis, currently scheduled for the end of June.

From One Economic Lunacy To Another

Jeffrey Immelt doesn’t seem to know much about business:

“If I had one thing to do over again I would not have talked so much about green,” Immelt said at an event sponsored by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Even though I believe in global warming and I believe in the science … it just took on a connotation that was too elitist; it was too precious and it let opponents think that if you had a green initiative, you didn’t care about jobs. I’m a businessman. That’s all I care about, is jobs.”

Hate to break it to you, but if you’re a real businessman, what you care about is profits, and not pandering to the politically correct by declaring your fealty to the planet, or job creation. The purpose of a business is not to create jobs, and if you think it is, then the business is likely to suffer, particularly if it’s all that you care about. Immelt seems like a character right out of Atlas Shrugged.

In Which The Moonbat Gets It Right

…and by “right,” I mean sort of:

The problem we face is not that we have too little fossil fuel, but too much. As oil declines, economies will switch to tar sands, shale gas and coal; as accessible coal declines, they’ll switch to ultra-deep reserves (using underground gasification to exploit them) and methane clathrates. The same probably applies to almost all minerals: we will find them, but exploiting them will mean trashing an ever greater proportion of the world’s surface. We have enough non-renewable resources of all kinds to complete our wreckage of renewable resources: forests, soil, fish, freshwater, benign weather. Collapse will come one day, but not before we have pulled everything down with us.

And even if there were an immediate economic cataclysm, it’s not clear that the result would be a decline in our capacity for destruction. In east Africa, for example, I’ve seen how, when supplies of paraffin or kerosene are disrupted, people don’t give up cooking; they cut down more trees. History shows us that wherever large-scale collapse has occurred, psychopaths take over. This is hardly conducive to the rational use of natural assets.

All of us in the environment movement, in other words – whether we propose accommodation, radical downsizing or collapse – are lost. None of us yet has a convincing account of how humanity can get out of this mess. None of our chosen solutions break the atomising, planet-wrecking project. I hope that by laying out the problem I can encourage us to address it more logically, to abandon magical thinking and to recognise the contradictions we confront. But even that could be a tall order.

What he understands: there is no crisis in terms of abundant cheap energy.

What he doesn’t understand, and this is understandable, because it would require a renunciation of everything that he’s thought and known for decades, is that this is a good, not a bad thing.

Given that he was one of the first to understand the implications of Climaquiddick, maybe there’s hope that he’ll come the rest of the way over to the side of the light.

Sneers And Lies From Loren Thompson

OK, maybe not lies. Maybe he’s just so completely clueless that he doesn’t know that SpaceX has received less than three hundred million dollars from NASA. The rant starts off with absurdity:

This week’s Bloomberg Businessweek contains the latest adulatory media profile of Elon Musk, the California entrepreneur who is said to be shaking up the space-launch industry. As usual, the profile is long on Musk’s opinions and short on any details about how his space business is actually performing. Good thing for Musk, because so far his inspiring rhetoric about making access to space cheap and easy just isn’t panning out in real life. In fact, compared with the performance of his Space Exploration Technologies Corporation — popularly known as SpaceX — the traditional launch providers he regularly derides seem like paradigms of efficiency.

Note that he provides no data with which to demonstrate the “efficiency” of the traditional launch providers, which helped NASA spend over ten billion of the taxpayers’ money on Ares and Orion with nothing to show but a single giant bottle rocket test, and a half-completed capsule. He goes on with the typical mindless SpaceX bashing:

Musk’s track record to date is not encouraging. Consider:

— The initial launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 1 vehicle was delayed over two years, and then suffered three failures before finally achieving a successful launch five years late.

— The initial launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 5 vehicle was originally expected to occur in 2005, and never happened at all.

— The initial launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 vehicle was delayed three years, and the company is now trying to back out of price commitments it made.

Nobody ever said that getting into space would be easy, but when a company has suffered three catastrophic launch failures in a mere seven missions, that’s not a good sign.

Yes, three “failures” constituted a test program. The first three flights failed, with each flight getting closer to success as bugs were fixed, and the final two flights were successful.

As for Falcon 5, it never happened at all because they decided to switch their efforts to the Falcon 9, so I don’t understand the point of this. Other than, of course, to try to put the company in the worst possible light.

And what is he talking about, as far as “backing out of price commitments”? He doesn’t say. Likely because he’s making it up.

And of course, let me rewrite that last sentence: When a company has a steadily improving record, with the successful development of one operational rocket after three test flights, and the successful development of a much larger rocket, that has had two successful flights, with no failures, the second of which delivered a pressurized capsule that was successfully and flawlessly recovered on its first flight, all at a cost to the taxpayers of less than three percent of that expended on Constellation to date, that is the sign of a company that is maturing rapidly and high on the learning curve. He doesn’t note the order of the failures and successes, or that they involved two different rockets, because it doesn’t play into his false implication that the failures are random events, and that the next vehicle has a three in seven chance of failing.

The next line, though, takes the cake for mendacity:

Nonetheless, NASA can’t seem to get enough of SpaceX, shelling out $2 billion to get its launch vehicles to a point where they can begin lifting payloads into orbit to support the Space Station and other missions.

As noted above, SpaceX has received less than three hundred million dollars from NASA to date. It has a contract with a theoretical value of $1.6B, but it doesn’t get paid that until it actually starts delivering cargo to the ISS, at which point it will be doing it for far less than the Shuttle was costing NASA.

It’s interesting to note that Musk and his investors have only put about one-tenth of that amount into SpaceX, even though they present the company as an entrepreneurial, market-driven undertaking.

Even if the numbers were right, this is absurd. He is complaining because the revenue generated by a product or service is much larger than the original investment? Yes, it is interesting, but not for the reason he thinks. It’s interesting because it demonstrates what a great investment it is, while offering a better cheaper new service to a customer who needs it. This is how real businesses work, though probably Dr. Thompson doesn’t understand that kind of business, having spent so much of his career in the traditional space industry, where companies are reimbursed for labor and material, not paid for performance.

I hesitate to ask you to read the whole thing, because it’s so outrageous.

[Update a few minutes later]

Oh, the irony:

The Lexington Institute of Arlington, VA is a libertarian, free market think tank, founded in 1988 by Merrick Carey with help from Robert L. Severns of the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution.[1] Its annual revenue is roughly $2.5 million, having received funding from corporate sponsors.

I wonder who some of those “corporate sponsors” might be? This might be a hint:

Loren B. Thompson argued in favor of continued C-17 production in 2009 and against this production in 2010.[10] He has also said that the United States is likely to engage in war against Vietnam again and so needs the EFV to storm their beaches.[11] He has also called for a shift in American defense spending towards items such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II that can be exported to allies.[12] Thompson has said that “The United States cannot continue to spend, especially on defense, the way it has been over the past decade.”[13]

I’m guessing that he’s a Lockmart flack, though he may be getting Boeing money as well. But the notion that this has anything to do with free markets, or libertarianism, is ludicrous.

[Update a few minutes later]

Space News (I think this is Warren Ferster) isn’t impressed, either.