Category Archives: Economics

NASA’s Starship Award

Five reasons it’s a watershed moment in human spaceflight.

It’s the biggest departure from the ancient Apollo mentality that the agency has ever made.

[Sunday-morning update]

Casey Handmer does a thorough analysis of just how revolutionary this capability is. We will get not only cheap lunar (and other space) transportation, but cheap lunar bases based on one-way trips of Starships. It also probably means that, for a long time, lunar ISRU for propellant will make no economic sense.

[Bumped]

End Of The Line For Falcon Development

SpaceX is throwing in the towel on fairing recovery, at least in terms of catching them.

There is always a tradeoff between reusability and expendability in terms of minimizing cost per flight. Shuttle had some notoriously bad design decisions, because they anticipated a higher flight rate than they ever got. At the end of the program, it was clear that it would have been cheaper to expend the SRBs than to recover and refurbish them, because of the high fixed costs of the recovery fleet that had to be amortized over a low flight rate. Expending the ET cost tens of millions per flight.

Elon was determined early on to recover as much of the vehicle as possible (they spent years trying to figure out how to recover the upper stage of the Falcon), but he finally decided that the only solution was to scale the vehicle up, and go to stainless steel to handle entry heating, so the focus is on Starship now, and Falcon 9 has reached the end of its development cycle.

NASA’s Lunar Surprise

They’ve selected SpaceX for the lunar lander. Eddie Bernice Johnson is not happy.

I think this is a message to Congress that if they want to increase the amount of money NASA has to waste on Artemis, they’re going to have to increase the budget.

[Update a while later]

Here is the source-selection report.

I haven’t read it yet, but I wonder if the fact that SpaceX can takeoff and land with minimal blasting of regolith, with its engines so high on the vehicle, was a significant factor?

[Update a few minutes later]

Glancing through it, ouch. Dynetics Technical Rating was “Marginal.” For the highest bid…