Amos Zeeberg, over at Discover, says it was a flop, and that we deluded ourselves about it for far too long. It’s actually worse than he says, though. Not sure where he gets these numbers:
The shuttle was billed as a reusable craft that could frequently, safely, and cheaply bring people and payloads to low Earth orbit. NASA originally said the shuttles could handle 65 launches per year; the most launches it actually did in a year was nine; over the life of the program, it averaged five per year. NASA predicted each shuttle launch would cost $50 million; they actually averaged $450 million. NASA administrators said the risk of catastrophic failure was around one in 100,000; NASA engineers put the number closer to one in a hundred; a more recent report from NASA said the risk on early flights was one in nine. The failure rate was two out of 135 in the tests that matter most.
It’s actually a lot worse than that. If you include development costs, we now know that it was about a billion and a half per flight (~$200B in life-cycle costs over 135 flights, in current-year dollars). Even on an annualized basis, it was probably never as low as $450M (again, current-year dollars).
This isn’t quite right, though:
Tellingly, the U.S. space program is abandoning spaceplanes and going back to Apollo-style rockets.
That depends on what you mean by “the U.S. space program.” Yes, Mike Griffin retrogressed down that road, until it became unaffordable, and Congress continues to insist on it for now (until the fiscal situation truly implodes in the coming years, if not months), but the private people aren’t all doing that. For instance, Dreamchaser isn’t an “Apollo-style rocket,” and none of the suborbital people are, so if any of them graduate to orbit in the future, they will be distinctly un-Apollo like.
There are valuable lessons to be learned from the Shuttle, but as I wrote a couple weeks ago, we have to make sure that we learn the right, and not the wrong ones.
Razib has further comments over at Discover.
[Via commenter Paul Dietz]
[Update a few minutes later]
Will McLean makes a good point in comments — the Air Force continues to support X-37B, which is hardly “Apollo like.”
[Mid-morning update]
Mike Griffin: The Shuttle program was oversold.
Nowhere near as much as Constellation was.