Some thoughts from Chris Muir. I had similar ones a few months ago.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Alan K. Henderson has further thoughts.
Category Archives: Space
“Thrust Oscillation May Be Less Than Feared”
Then again, it may not be:
…there were early claims by engineers and Ares I supporters that the test proved that that the Ares I rocket won’t shake violently during its ascent to orbit — as had been predicted — and that the shaking problem, called thrust oscillation, is no longer an issue for NASA.
But as the data is studied further, engineers and managers for NASA and ATK say those early conclusions are overstated.
NASA’s associate administrator for space operations, Bill Gerstenmaier, told NASA officials and contractors not to repeat the claims, especially to members of Congress, because, “That is not what the test showed.”
Picky, picky, picky. That mean old Gerst is such a party pooper.
Guys, it’s not possible to know how a motor will perform dynamically in free flight from a horizontal hold-down test. At best, they got some valid data to plug into the dynamics models, the latter of which they may or may not have confidence in (though the Ares I-X test will help to validate — or invalidate — them).
[Update a few minutes later]
“Rocketman” has similar thoughts:
Drawing good news conclusions from one test, pinned to the ground, is folly. Proposing Ares 1 as a tech development program for Ares V is also folly. And taking a crap shoot like Ares 1X is desperate folly. But, these are the kind of fool’s games that will be played from here to cancellation.
It will continue until the administration comes up with a policy. But like Afghanistan, it seems determined to continue to kick the can down the road for now. I don’t envy Administrator Bolden right now.
Watching The Lunar Press Conference
Wow. A lot of water at both poles, with some strong signatures, with spacial variability in large craters.
I’m recording it, and I haven’t watched the whole thing, but apparently it’s at all latitudes, but they were looking more at the poles, and it’s more abundant there.
[Update at noon]
Keith Cowing has notes from the event.
Trouble With The Concept
The water on the moon story seems to be pretty big today (NASA will be showing the press conference on NASA TV at 2PM Eastern). The story on Fox News just now had the title “NASA Unearths Water On The Moon.” Emphasis mine.
A New Rebel Group
…has formed against the empire of the space iron triangle: The Next Step in Space:
The Next Step in Space coalition is a growing group of businesses and organizations working towards making human commercial space flight a reality.
All the members seem to be NewSpace, not old.
Water On The Moon
There’s a lot of it?
If so, in a sane policy world, that would be even more impetus for depot-based refueling architectures. Unfortunately, that’s not the policy world in which we live, when it comes to space.
[Early evening update]
Speaking of depots, Jon Goff discusses the two papers he presented in Pasadena last week (which I still wish that I’d been able to attend).
The Solar Power Satellite Business
Alan Boyle has a good rundown on the current state of play. I wonder, though about the assumptions underlying this comment:
To be competitive with other power sources, Maness figures that the powersat system’s launch costs would have to be around $100 per pound – which is roughly one-hundredth of the current asking price. Launch costs may be heading downward, thanks in part to the rise of SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, but Maness can’t yet predict when the charts tracing cost and benefit will cross into the profitable zone.
Launch costs to where? They’re that high to GEO, but not to LEO, and it doesn’t say where the satellite constellation will live. It’s going to be a long time before it’s a hundred bucks a pound to GEO, though though a robust market for LEO propellant depots will be a help in that regard. But we’re not far from having a thousand bucks a pound to LEO. Anyway, it would be nice to see more details on these things.
The bottom line, though, and the reason that I’m not that sanguine on the business prospects for SBSP, at least for base load, is this:
In addition to potential environmental concerns, large-scale solar farms can’t generate a steady flow of electricity at night, or during cloudy weather. But if engineers ever figure out a way to store up the intermittent energy generated by solar cells or wind turbines, at levels high enough to keep utilities flush with power, Maness thinks that would deal a heavy blow to his powersat dreams.
“At that point, I take my marbles and go home,” he said.
Yup. It’s not the technical risk of the space hardware and launch costs, but the risk of terrestrial competition as technology evolves, that is the biggest risk of all.
Masten LLC Attempts
Start today. Clark Lindsey has links. Best of luck (and skill) to them.
Another reason to wish that I was already back in CA. I expect to hit the road this morning, but I have to pack the car still, which will be an interesting puzzle.
[Update a few minutes later]
Shutting down the machine now so I can load it. I may check in tonight, if I have wireless in the motel. Be good in comments, and don’t expect anything with links to be approved today.
[Late evening update]
I’m still on Eastern time, but just barely, about 10:30 PM. I’m also still in Florida, in Talahassee, but it hasn’t seemed like it since north of Tampa, when the country went from flat and swampy to rolling with woods and pastures. I drove across from Ocala to here through beautiful horse country. This is a Florida that I could like, but it’s more like southern Georgia.
The Zombie Stumbles On?
If you missed the Congressional hearings with Norm Augustine today, Alexis Madrigal live blogged them over at Wired. The Congressional questions seemed, by and large, determined to continue to drive the program over a cliff.
ULA’s Heresy
I have a piece up at Popular Mechanics about the AIAA conference this week, and ULA’s non-heavy-lift architecture. Hell hath no fury like a rocket company scorned.
Meanwhile, it looks like there may be a battle in Congress to preserve the Ares pork. At some point, though, they’re going to have to confront budgetary and programmatic reality.
[Noon update]
Here is the permalink.
[Another update a few minutes later]
Paul Spudis has a longish essay on the history of the VSE, how NASA mangled it, and what we need to do going forward.