Category Archives: Technology and Society

Science And Society, Technology and Society

Very Bad News

17 Comments

If this guy is right:

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can “get there first”…us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it….I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens…

…If the BP data correctly or honestly identified four separate reservoirs then a bleed-out might gush less than 2 to 2.5 billion barrels unless the walls — as it were — fracture or partially collapse. I am hearing the same dark rumors which suggest fracturing and a complete bleed-out are already underway. Rumors also suggest a massive collapse of the Gulf floor itself is in the making. They are just rumors but it is time for geologists or related experts to end their deafening silence and speak to these possibilities.

This is likely to become the biggest environmental disaster in history. At least American history. And hard to top, short of the Yellowstone Caldera blowing.

Business, Economics, Political Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

Sorry, It’s Not The Manhattan Project

32 Comments

…or Apollo. I suffered through the president’s speech so you don’t have to.

The most egregious part of it was when he compared energy independence to Apollo. Here’s my response from the campaign:

He’s never met a problem that, in his mind, the “full power of the government” can’t solve.

It’s an understandable appeal, but it betrays a certain lack of understanding of the problem to think that we will solve it with a crash federal program, at least if it’s one modelled on Apollo.

Putting a man on the moon was a remarkable achievement, but it was a straightforward well-defined engineering challenge, and a problem susceptible to having huge bales of money thrown at it, which is exactly how it was done. At its height, the Apollo program consumed four percent of the federal budget (NASA is currently much less than one percent, and has been for many years). Considering how much larger the federal budget is today, with the addition and growth of many federal programs over the past forty years makes the amount of money spent on the endeavor even more remarkable.

But most of the other problems for which people have pled for a solution, using Apollo as an example, were, and are, less amenable to being solved by a massive public expenditure. We may in fact cure cancer, and have made great strides over the past four decades in doing so, but it’s a different kind of problem, involving science and research on the most complex machine ever built — the human body. It isn’t a problem for which one can simply set a goal and time table and put the engineers to work on it, as Apollo was. Similarly, ending world hunger and achieving world peace are socio-political problems, not technological ones (though technology has made great strides in improving food production, which makes the problem easier to solve for governments that are competent and not corrupt). So most of the uses of the phrase never really made much sense, often being non sequiturs.

It’s important to understand that landing a man on the moon (or developing atomic weaponry as in the Manhattan Project — another example used by proponents of a new federal energy program) was a technological achievement. Achieving “energy independence,” or ending the use of fossil fuels, are economic ones. And the former is not necessarily even a desirable goal, if by that one means only getting energy from domestic sources. Energy is, and should remain, part of the global economy and trade system if we want to continue to keep prices as low as possible and continue to provide economic growth.

Nothing has changed. My commentary remains true today.

[Wednesday morning update]

If we can put a man on the moon, why can’t we stop the leak, Mr. President? That’s a much better Apollo analogy.

Administrative, Technology and Society

Computer Problems

82 Comments

OK, so I decided to upgrade my video card in my Fedora 11 box. But when I fire it up, it won’t load X, or even boot. I look up what to do, and the instructions seem to say to install the latest Ndivia video drivers. So I put the old card back in and do so. Still no joy. So I put the old card back in, and this time it won’t even boot with the old card.

OK, so I have to somehow undo what I’ve done. But I can’t boot the machine.

Here is the problem. The machine pays no attention to keyboard commands during boot (e.g., I cannot get into the BIOS with DEL.) Which means that I can’t tell it to boot at a lower level to bypass X. In other words, I cannot boot.

Well, OK. So I burn a DVD of Fedora 13, and figure I’ll just rescue and upgrade at the same time.

But the Fedora DVD doesn’t recognize my keyboard either, until after it gets into the upgrade process, so I can’t just do a rescue. So I go ahead and upgrade. It says all the packages are installed, and reboot. I reboot, and it still can’t boot, because apparently the upgrade didn’t fix the video problem. And because I don’t have keyboard at boot, or even DVD initialization, I still can’t boot into terminal mode to fix the problem. I tried loading Knoppix, but I can’t figure out how to use it to see the Fedora drive. When I try to mount the drive, it says it doesn’t recognize the lpm2vp filesystem type.

Does anyone have any suggestions?

[Tuesday morning update]

OK, I’m updating from the machine using Knoppix, and I’ve mounted the drive. Now I just have to see if I can figure out what to do to fix it. Ideally, I’d uninstall the drivers that I installed, but I don’t have yum available in this mode, so I’m going to see if blacklisting Nouveau will fix it.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Dang. Nouveau is already blacklisted (it must have happened automagically when I installed the Nvidia drivers). Now I don’t know what to do to fix the problem.

[Update early afternoon]

OK, so I can boot into runlevel 3. I can’t bring up eth0 (it says that the device is not managed by NetworkManager — Google provides no clue as to what the problem could be), so I have no network connectivity with the box. When I telinit 5, it tells me that it’s disabled the nvidia drivers because it’s missing the nividia.ko for the new Fedora 13 kernel. The default driver in xorg.conf is vesa. As it continues to try to get to runlevel 5, it flashes a few times, but then quits. And the last line it displays is “Starting NMB services” which is says failed. It then just sits there until I ctrl-C out of the attempt, at which point I’m back to runlevel 3.

Any ideas?

[Update a few minutes later]

Well, the good news is that the machine is bootable, so in the last resort I can just back up /home and do a clean install.

[Update a few minutes later]

Hoorah! I stopped NetworkManager, and brought up eth0, and I now have an ssh connection to the machine from my laptop, so I have a place to back up. Though I’m starting to think that I should just go out and buy a new drive for a clean install, and then copy files over to it, and use the old drive for a mirror.

[Update a few minutes later]

OK, I removed akmod-nvidia, but I still get the same behavior when trying to telinit 5, and it still hangs at “Starting NMB services.”

[Update a while later]

Success! Almost. I reinstalled the nvidia drivers, following the instructions for Fedora 13, including editing grub.conf to blacklist nouveau. Then I shut down, put in the new video card, and rebooted. This time, when I telinited 5, it finally came up. The only problem now is that the screen isn’t displaying fully (that is, there is an inch of so of black on each side and a half inch top and bottom on my 22: LG monitor). Also, the highest resolution available from screen preferences is 1280 x 1024 (and I’m actually using 1280 x 720 to better match my screen ratio). I’m looking at the monitor manual to see if there’s anything I can do to enlarge the display, but I may also have to hack the X config file to get higher res. I assume that I can now reset the default to boot into level 5.

Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Technology and Society

At It Again

22 Comments

Karl Grossman is continuing his ignorant jeremiad against nuclear power in space, including RTGs:

Last month, Japan launched what it called its “space yacht” which is now heading to Venus propelled by solar sails utilizing ionized particles emitted by the Sun.

When he writes stuff like this (light sails are propelled by photons, not “ionized particles”), why should we take anything else he writes (like all of the people who died of radiation poisoning from the SNAP 9A entry) seriously? He’s just a journalism professor.

I have to admit, though, it’s kind of amusing that this will be one more thing for the Left to be disappointed about in Obama.